OrderFlow charts and Notes 15/09

[09:05]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[09:05]   r m : WPI data at 12:00 hrs
[09:05]   Sharad : GM all
[09:06]   r m : WPI (YoY) Previous 5.19%, Expected 4.50% (investing.com)
[09:10]   Shai : Gm all’
[09:11]   Shai : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-15th-sept/
[09:13]   Sumit : gm Shai, rm, Sharad
[09:14]   r m : Hi Sumit
[09:16]   Shai : usdinr in an open drive
[09:16]   Shai : weakness at open in NF and BNF
[09:16]   Shai : auction in NF just below pdl but at last week’s lows of 8072
[09:18]   Shai : NF could be an OAOR though can rise to 8096 if there is no new selling
[09:25]   Shai : Buyers in NF
[09:26]   Shai : Friday’s charts – http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-120914/
[09:27]   Shai : liitle bit hesistant of new shorts here as OF was about shorts covering rather than new shorts
[09:27]   Shai : so 1 upmove may come to 8095- 8105 for longs to cover or shorts to come back depends on OF
[09:28]   Shai : then back to 8072 and possibly 8034/ 8020 below
[09:30]   Shai : 8073- 8096 would be the only long trade
[09:30]   Shai : but abv 8074 now
[09:31]   Shai : shorts seen controlling the vwap so far
[09:38]   Shai : NF more a drive now than OAOR
[09:38]   Shai : short in control below 8073
[09:39]   Sumit : Shai, what about bnf?
[09:48]   Shai : BNf weak below 16205 by a small margin
[09:48]   Shai : should move twoards 16130
[09:48]   Sumit : thanks Shai
[09:48]   Shai : welcome
[09:51]   Shai : NF open drive – as always in all open drives watch vwap
[09:51]   Shai : 8062 now
[09:52]   Shai : early morning shorts and some long liquidation is there
[09:52]   Shai : but based on what I see on charts- It is not strong hands
[09:52]   Shai : besides there were no big shorts created on friday
[10:00]   Kathir : Good Morning Shai RM sumit sharad and all 🙂
[10:00]   r m : Hi Kathir 🙂
[10:00]   Sumit : hi Kathir
[10:03]   Sharad : GM Kathir
[10:06]   Shai : vwap
[10:12]   Kathir : @SHAI fri eve inr cut 60.90 and went to 60.85 range so closed that trade..thanks for the levels 🙂
[10:12]   Shai : 🙂
[10:13]   Shai : Agressive long in NF abv 8065 for 8085, sl 8050
[10:14]   Shai : trade based on vwap covering
[10:15]   Shai : BNF back abv vwap
[10:20]   Shai : Not a lot of selling seen in both though price is not confirming yet in NF
[10:20]   Shai : But BNF it is
[10:21]   Shai : spot traders – 8030 supp and 8070 new resistance
[10:26]   Kathir : @shai usd/inr supp res now?
[10:32]   Shai : res in usdint still 61.44 and supp at 61.09
[10:32]   Kathir : ok thanks
[10:33]   Kathir : @rm we missed that 8000 pe
[10:34]   Kathir : 25-48 🙂
[10:34]   r m : yes
[10:35]   r m : poor decision to stay away fearing weekend decay 🙂
[10:35]   Kathir : yeah
[10:35]   Kathir : why sudden 60 points down nf?
[10:35]   Kathir : bad iip?
[10:35]   r m : global issues
[10:36]   r m : ES down more than 20 points
[10:37]   Shai : /ES we expected a 1973 close on friday but looks like they will get a Monday open there
[10:37]   Kathir : ok
[10:37]   Shai : supp moves to 1950 now at /es
[10:39]   Kathir : @shai fri bnf took very good support near 16220..shall we treat that levels as resistance now
[10:39]   Kathir : or todays high
[10:40]   Shai : 16254 is a better res now in BNF
[10:40]   Kathir : ok
[10:40]   r m : near day’s high should be VAL too
[10:44]   Kathir : @yes i think we missed a small trade there
[10:44]   Kathir : 230 – 180
[10:45]   Kathir : we had a small SL
[10:45]   Kathir : @shai in that case nf 8072 will also act as some res ?
[10:46]   Shai : (10:21) Shai :spot traders – 8030 supp and 8070 new resistance
[10:47]   Kathir : ok
[10:48]   Shai : Here is the chart- http://screencast.com/t/ga4uFO1n
[10:49]   Shai : above 8070 will be a swift climb through last week’s value in spot
[10:49]   Shai : easy 30 points below 8030 which should be quick too
[10:49]   Kathir : ok
[10:50]   Shai : Still maintian on track for 7980 with sl now at 8070 spot
[10:54]   Shai : 8074 F cross can also double up on longs for 8088 with sl of 8063
[11:09]   Shai : Options OI is bearish this morning- http://screencast.com/t/o2dJpYdQqGnN
[11:10]   Shai : It would tell us that highs would be used to liquidate longs
[11:10]   Shai : first touch of 8072 brought out some selling
[11:11]   Shai : Exit the aggressive NF longs at 8070
[11:42]   Shai : auction beginning to turn around at 8071
[11:46]   Shai : seller has to break vwap again for day low and the intra tgt of 8034
[11:50]   Shai : Sell NF below 8060 tgt 8032, sl 8075
[11:59]   Amit J : superb inflation
[12:00]   r m : BNF in 80%
[12:01]   Shriraj : 3.74 vs 5.19 wpi
[12:02]   r m : wow!
[12:03]   Shai : RBI has focussed on wpi all along since Rajan
[12:03]   Shai : but he does not want to do anything with rates now
[12:04]   Shai : so all this does not go anywhere
[12:07]   Mandar : Good Afternoon All, Shai can a EOD close above 8072 indicate that sellers are weak here?
[12:09]   r m : Hi Mandar
[12:10]   Amit J : shai any view on geometric
[12:16]   Shai : yes mandat we get into ce’s of 8100 if we close abv 8070 spot
[12:17]   Mandar : thanks Shai.
[12:17]   Shai : 8114 spot imm tgt and further rise if it sustains
[12:17]   Shai : But at the moment profile will signal a close at lows
[12:17]   Mandar : ok
[12:17]   Chiranthan : Short at 8060 NF still open?
[12:18]   Shai : yes
[12:18]   Chiranthan : ok
[12:18]   Shai : first sign of the sellers
[12:20]   Shai : geometric has been in extended sideways
[12:20]   Shai : 153.5 and 158.5 are 2 immediate resistance and as we probe higher volumes are increasing
[12:21]   Shai : 30 point upside is there to 188 if 158.5 is taken out
[12:22]   Shai : canoot come below 149.7 this week if it wants to move up
[12:30]   Amit J : thanks.
[12:34]   Shai : mw
[12:43]   r m : shorts entering NF below vwap as per OF
[12:45]   Shai : yes – mixed behavior today
[12:45]   r m : ok
[12:45]   Shai : the seller should not have let vwap be crossed on the open drive
[12:46]   Anay : BNF OF 10 min chart plz
[12:47]   Amit J : and any view on unitech
[12:50]   Shai : BN spot in last week’s value- http://screencast.com/t/JKEwt7S7
[12:50]   Shai : break of that VA will give a very rewarding trade
[12:52]   Shai : unitech locked btw 24.3 and 21.7
[12:53]   Shai : I think 27/ 28.4 is there on break above 24.4
[12:53]   Shai : 22.7 should hold for that to happen and preferable close abv 23.45 todat
[12:57]   Shai : BNF if 16235 holds now tgt is 16336
[12:57]   Shai : prefer to buy closer to 15250 with sl below 15230 – great R/R
[12:58]   Shai : VA is 16230-16195- 16097: (12:50) Shai :BN spot in last week’s value- http://screencast.com/t/JKEwt7S7
[13:30]   Anay : NF short call still active?
[13:31]   Shai : yes
[13:31]   Anay : ok
[13:32]   Shai : Take below 8058 now
[13:32]   Anay : hmm
[13:32]   Shai : early morning buyers from 8050 holding out against the sellers from 8075+
[13:33]   Chiranthan : SL remains the same?
[13:34]   Shai : yes 8076 + 1
[13:35]   Shai : looking for the market to break on long liquidation this afternoon
[13:36]   Shai : Banks are running contrary to the NF based on that RBI defaulter news of last week
[13:36]   Shai : good for PSU’s
[13:39]   Shai : today is 6 years to Lehman when the world changed right in front our eyes
[13:42]   r m : indian markets took six months more to melt – alleged experts called it decoupling from global markets 😀
[13:42]   r m : *4 more months
[13:43]   Shai : yes Jan
[13:46]   Shai : BNf driving
[13:47]   Anay : buyers back in NF?
[13:48]   Shai : yes – still buyer holding lower levels
[13:48]   Shai : Seller only here at 8075+
[13:58]   Shai : % change in intra day OI- http://screencast.com/t/YklOZl1Y7nH8
[14:02]   Shai : 8100 put being liquidated and 8100 ce being added
[14:04]   Shai : sellers coming again inn NF – 8072 and being aggressive
[14:07]   Kathir : INR high
[14:11]   Shai : 8069/ 71 is almost evenly matched now for dpoc
[14:29]   Kathir : @rm
[14:29]   r m : yessir!
[14:30]   Kathir : if boring ry nrf one lot..
[14:30]   Kathir : MRF
[14:30]   Kathir : 5000 rs up from last week
[14:30]   r m : wow!
[14:30]   Kathir : 1 lot 125
[14:31]   Kathir : if someone holding what a profit
[14:31]   r m : yep
[14:31]   Kathir : 125*5000 = 625000
[14:31]   r m : not bad!
[14:32]   Kathir : yeah .. now we all request Shai to give MRF levels 🙂
[14:33]   r m : 🙂
[14:33]   Kathir : apollo tyre all are wonderfull
[14:34]   Kathir : Shai’s levels rcom cipla bhel apptyre
[14:34]   r m : yeah, you said the other day, rubber price hitting new lows every day
[14:35]   Kathir : yeah so all tyre companies will get huge profits..but i am sure no one will request to reduce tre prices 🙂
[14:35]   r m : lol
[14:36]   Kathir : @RM here just opposite to my office my CM jayalalitha is coming for election camp..
[14:36]   r m : any elections due in TN?
[14:36]   Kathir : they are torturing us to take all the vehicles and keep away
[14:37]   Kathir : yeah mayor election..previous mayor was suspended by jayalalitha because mayors car hot a boy and did not stop 🙂
[14:37]   Kathir : hit
[14:37]   r m : lol
[14:37]   Kathir : hit and run by mayor
[14:37]   r m : well, he has been rightly kicked out
[14:37]   Kathir : another two citi mayors were made rajyasabha MPS
[14:38]   Kathir : 🙂
[14:38]   r m : ok
[14:38]   Kathir : one the beauty is one mayor selected un oppossed
[14:39]   r m : ok
[14:40]   Kathir : because BJP is the only party competing against jaya party..and the bjp mayor candidate of one citi withdrew from election without party’s permission 🙂
[14:40]   Kathir : 7 crores i guess
[14:41]   r m : last time BJP MP candidate did not file his papers that too S Gurumurthy who claims to be the biggest swadeshi sympathiser 🙂
[14:41]   r m : perhaps he took swadeshi money too 😀
[14:41]   Kathir : 🙂
[14:41]   Kathir : lol
[14:42]   Kathir : someone was asking Shai about cipla levels and it is up 60 rs from there
[14:45]   Shriraj : watch lichousing……………..
[14:48]   Shai : looks like a timid close at 8070 coming up
[14:50]   Kathir : nity spot ?
[14:51]   Shai : f
[14:52]   Kathir : ok
[15:07]   Shai : t
[15:08]   Shai : sellers coming in aggressively
[15:09]   r m : guess they are thinking of another gap down 🙂
[15:10]   Kathir : 🙂
[15:16]   Amit J : shai unitech at your level
[15:16]   Shai : Nice Pick Amit
[15:17]   Shai : vol is better than all of last week
[15:17]   Amit J : i am buying for 3 digit target,
[15:17]   Amit J : cipla still holding
[15:17]   Shai : ok
[15:20]   Kathir : @shai any changes in usd/inr levels for today..u told supp 61.09 and res 61.44…?
[15:21]   Shai : No
[15:21]   Shai : should be this range till thurs
[15:21]   Kathir : ok thanks
[15:21]   Shai : FOMC on wed at 11.30 pm
[15:21]   Kathir : it gave a buy chance when at low 61.11..missed it
[15:22]   r m : w
[15:23]   r m : 61.16 came many times, 61.11 happened only at open
[15:23]   Amit J : fomc meet should be positive, less hawkish
[15:25]   Kathir : @rm ok
[15:26]   Kathir : @shai the unitech levels u mentioned is for spot or fut?
[15:26]   Shai : tgt is 7984 spot from here cmp 8040 spot
[15:27]   Shai : we keep sl on the puts at 8070
[15:27]   Shai : unitech spot
[15:27]   Shai : all stocks mostly cash levels unless some1 specific asks for fut
[15:27]   Kathir : ok shai
[15:28]   Kathir : actually unitech spot and fut trade same price
[15:30]   Shai : Nifty F 8016/ 7992 tgts below 8050 now
[15:30]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂
[15:30]   Shai : Bye all – Have a nice eve
[15:30]   Anay : bye all
[15:31]   Sumit : good bye everyone
[15:32]   Kathir : thanks and bye all 🙂