OrderFlow charts and Notes 16/01

[09:02]   Varun : gm shai
[09:04]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[09:04]   r m : http://vtrender.com/24604/
[09:04]   r m : http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-15th-jan/
[09:04]   Porus : GM all
[09:04]   r m : NF Hypo1 above 8566➜8610➜8656 SL 8512 Hypo2 below 8521➜8481➜8465 SL 8563 JAN Future levels
[09:05]   r m : BNF Hypo1 above 19410➜19520➜19593 SL 19315 Hypo2 below 19265➜19205➜19120 SL 19314 JAN Future levels
[09:05]   Varun : gm rm
[09:05]   r m : Hi Varun
[09:05]   Shai : Gm all
[09:06]   Varun : rm hve u guys done any back test for profit taking
[09:06]   Varun : besides the 25 points mentioned in welcome kit
[09:06]   Sharad : GM all
[09:06]   r m : @Varun, you have to check with Shai regarding that
[09:07]   Varun : i am very bad at booking profits, i just let them run and then volatility brings it back to break even
[09:07]   Varun : like last aftrrnoon
[09:07]   Varun : didnt take 60 points
[09:07]   Varun : and thn boom flat
[09:07]   r m : yes, it happens with most of us
[09:08]   Varun : the first part of learning is placing stops which we all hve mostly learned
[09:08]   Varun : but the most imp aspect of trading is the exit
[09:09]   Varun : i hope shai will provide his inputs on it
[09:09]   Rav : http://www.screencast.com/users/Ravicbe/folders/Jing/media/c95ed8af-fffc-45b7-93e1-0b02a137ed62
[09:09]   Rav : http://www.screencast.com/users/Ravicbe/folders/Jing/media/f71139d2-75dc-4a86-a0ef-c61e815a8e47
[09:10]   Rav : what has happened yesterday every 15 min in nf and bnf has been depicted in those 2 links
[09:10]   Varun : rav hw do u get this
[09:10]   r m : Thanks Rav
[09:11]   Rav : GM All
[09:11]   Varun : is it real time or aftr every 15 mins
[09:12]   Rav : NF exit is only for 25-30 points in single 5 min candle mostly
[09:13]   Rav : When Shai told us to book bnf at 19300, I booked quickly
[09:13]   Rav : as entry was at 19185
[09:13]   Varun : whts ystrday poc
[09:14]   r m : the bold blue lines here are dpoc and will be POC today
[09:14]   RK : GM Shai,RM and friends 🙂
[09:14]   Varun : 8532?
[09:14]   r m : 8500
[09:15]   r m : I was watching the tick char
[09:15]   r m : chart
[09:15]   r m : Hi RK 🙂
[09:15]   r m : ES fell into a well yesterday!
[09:15]   Shai : could be another volatile session today
[09:16]   Varun : k
[09:16]   Shai : globe off India in
[09:16]   RK : opened at tgt 1 of hypos
[09:16]   Shai : Salient feature of this week has been the early 1-2 hour seloff and a rise from mid session
[09:17]   Shai : kra is 8465 in NF
[09:18]   RK : Shai TCS levels on downside pls
[09:19]   r m : yesterday FII filled their bag with longs and Client category took advantage by booking some longs and adding shorts http://vtrender.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/fiioi3.png
[09:19]   r m : http://vtrender.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/oishift1.png
[09:20]   Shai : thanks RM
[09:20]   Shai : yes noticed that big exchange
[09:20]   r m : welcome
[09:20]   Shai : but clients have been lng in this move up this Jan and now reducing
[09:21]   Shai : Fii’s playing catch up after that huge liquidation of Jan 6
[09:21]   r m : so those huge aggressive shorts thru the day were Desi guys!
[09:21]   r m : yeah, clients still net long
[09:21]   Shai : yes
[09:21]   Shai : HNI’s
[09:21]   r m : now only poor brokers are net short 🙂
[09:21]   Shai : HNI’s are big in this market now, should be a separate category for them !!
[09:22]   r m : yes
[09:22]   Shai : eyes on 8465 and 8500 for the IB
[09:22]   Shai : 20 points abv 8500 to 8521 and further 30 abv 8521
[09:22]   Shai : below 8465 we revisist the FA
[09:24]   Rav : Fonts looking great though market is not
[09:26]   RK : Varun conviction and instinct are best parameters to enter and exit..the moment decision strike to our mind, we have to execute it..it mostly pays..we are tuned unconsciously after being in mkt for so long in such price action and time..once we start interogates that decision, it then falls into 50/50 success ratio..my poor experience about enter and exit :))
[09:27]   Shai : 8452-8436 spot support zone for the positional
[09:27]   Shai : should not close below it to keep momentum intact upwards
[09:29]   Shai : delta getting positive in the same zone of yesterday sellers
[09:31]   Shai : above BNF 19274 is a long play intra for 19314/ 19392 again
[09:32]   Shai : 19410 is that seller
[09:32]   Shai : 19201 is the area of interest in BNF
[09:33]   Varun : thanks rk 🙂
[09:36]   Rav : nf bnf SBU in 15 min
[09:46]   Rav : 8500ce buying on. bought nf too
[09:47]   Sharad : 8500 CE is buying or shorting ? OI increase and price decrease..
[09:50]   Rav : 9.30-94-.45 nf SC!!
[09:50]   Rav : 9.45
[09:50]   Shai : buyers in from 8488
[09:51]   Rav : Sharad..pl see pcr of 8400 more than 1 and change
[09:51]   Sharad : 8500 pcr is 0.86
[09:52]   Rav : 8400 pcr
[09:52]   Sharad : yes 8400 is 1.13 so how to read then .. pl clarify
[09:52]   Shai : sl is 8480 for that buy abv 8500
[09:53]   Rav : 1 2 4 9 8 for 8400 to 8000 is pcr
[09:53]   Shai : tgt 8521/ 8551
[09:54]   Sharad : true so we have to assume that pcr of 8500 also going towards 1
[09:54]   Sharad : 8500 put SBU not happening much
[09:56]   Rav : 8400ce SBU SC LU for every 15 min
[09:56]   Sharad : ok good
[09:57]   Rav : 8500ce Volume is more than all
[09:58]   Sharad : yes
[09:58]   Shai : these buyers could be yesterday’s sellers exiting as we are in same range
[09:59]   Shai : ES is up fr a bounce today
[10:00]   Rav : 90-97 8500ce
[10:00]   Rav : 99
[10:01]   RK : Shai BNF SL 19205 could do for intra longs?
[10:04]   Amit J : hul coal india your view for shorting?
[10:05]   Shai : below 19201
[10:06]   Varun : shai since we openend within previous value area, trend of previous day continues within pva range, untill range extesion happens ?
[10:07]   RK : Thanks Shai…Just read all comments since morning and noted that 19201
[10:08]   Shai : hll tooksupp near that 900 mark yesterdau
[10:08]   Shai : on way to 964 objective
[10:08]   Shai : has to come below 916 today for any weakness
[10:09]   RK : Shai TCS today’s low is almost closer to 2482 level from you..what are the levels below that?-
[10:09]   Rav : bnf heavy vol
[10:09]   Shai : coal india res 376- 377.4
[10:09]   Shai : good place to short with sl just abv that
[10:10]   Shai : sl has to be close there else it will drive to 384
[10:11]   r m : @RK, 2423 and 2587 were the levels for TCS beyond 2482-2518
[10:11]   Shai : tcs can do 2483/ 248 below 2509
[10:12]   Shai : 2469-72
[10:12]   RK : thanks Shai
[10:12]   Shai : (09:31) Shai :above BNF 19274 is a long play intra for 19314/ 19392 again
[10:14]   Rav : 2491
[10:15]   Rav : 8500ce 102
[10:16]   RK : thanks RM
[10:17]   r m : @RK, welcome, they were old levels given by Shai on 14th 🙂
[10:23]   RK : Yes RM I have taken it from the notes..but still thanks for the effort 🙂
[10:23]   r m : 🙂
[10:25]   Shai : 8510
[10:25]   Shai : nice repair in the orderflow
[10:33]   Shai : 19270 sl for atechnical chance to still get VAH
[10:33]   Shai : 19375
[10:36]   Rahul G : guys can someone explain me what happened yesterday and the aftereffects of it. Since I though always getting a predetermined market rate for the currency or for any commodity is better
[10:36]   Rahul G : rather than having it fixed
[10:36]   Rahul G : so why did the market react so wildly
[10:37]   Varun : booked a 20 point profit in nifty
[10:37]   Varun : thanks shai
[10:38]   Rav : nf hv
[10:40]   Shai : Rahul for most of us an exchange rate is fixed when we do our dealings by the central bank I think at 12 pm also used by banks for the international transactions
[10:41]   Shai : But currency pairs is a 24 hour trading market just like equity and that is where the volatility happened
[10:41]   Rahul G : ok
[10:42]   Rahul G : after the news also I could buy swiss francs for 61-64 yesterday
[10:42]   Rahul G : but today all of a sudden it is 74-75
[10:43]   Sharad : what is yesterday VAh ? 8514 ?
[10:43]   Shai : 8550
[10:43]   Sharad : ohhh ok
[10:43]   Shai : yesterday’s NF profile is not balanced hence value areas diff
[10:44]   Sharad : ok
[10:44]   Varun : is 8550 the next rtrgt
[10:45]   Varun : for nf
[10:45]   Shai : yes only abv 8522 now’
[10:45]   Shai : (09:52) Shai :sl is 8480 for that buy abv 8500.(09:53) Shai :tgt 8521/ 8551
[10:46]   Varun : cool
[10:46]   Shai : 19325 to 19375 is also a 50 pointer trade in BNF
[10:46]   Shai : sl of 19280 prev vwap
[10:47]   Rav : nf bnf LBU
[11:02]   Shai : 8503 vwap keep
[11:02]   Shai : no signs of longs keeping up abv 8522
[11:03]   Shai : 8521/ 8481/ 8465 were the 3 areas where the volume change was happening yesterday
[11:03]   Shai : we are just reracing the levels of hypo2
[11:03]   Shai : *retracing
[11:05]   Shai : volumes were messsy between 19330- 19400 yesterday
[11:05]   Rav : 8500 ce sbu and pe lbu is tilting
[11:11]   Shai : quiet market today
[11:12]   Shai : but still 50 points in 2 hours
[11:12]   Shai : avg traded range this week in NF has been 100 points
[11:12]   Shai : in BNF 285- 340
[11:12]   Shai : yesterday was 400
[11:13]   Rav : friday is option writing day so we may expect up and down and static levels
[11:13]   Shai : yes
[11:13]   Shai : fri afternoon inventry time
[11:14]   Shai : inventory **
[11:16]   Rav : when spot 8496 comes both 8500pe ce becomes LBU
[11:17]   Rav : Due to fear
[11:19]   Rav : samething for 19500
[11:25]   Rav : spot crosses 8503
[11:27]   Rav : booked nf at 8521 n ce 106
[11:33]   Rav : buying nf with 8500pe at 88.
[11:35]   Shai : 8517 looks like a new set of buyers
[11:35]   Shai : range extension
[11:37]   RK : delta also suggests 130-160-211 now
[11:44]   RK : VWAP catches dpoc in both NF and BNF
[11:46]   Sharad : 8500 Ce and Pe neck to neck … but INR resumed its journey towards 61.10/61.20 …. so 8726 (Shai number) should come in 1-2 days
[11:48]   Sharad : if we stay above 8525 today high after 2 pm
[11:52]   Rav : those who have shorted earlier will not short
[11:52]   Rav : for sure
[11:55]   Rav : 8600 is sure…http://www.screencast.com/users/Ravicbe/folders/Jing/media/534255aa-0795-42df-ae21-bad32cc17d8e
[11:58]   Rav : nf bnf entered into sideway
[11:58]   Rav : sideway is conducive for option writing
[12:07]   RK : <19265 hypo in action
[12:08]   RK : 216 is Red rekha
[12:26]   Sharad : 61.95 INR today’s new low
[12:30]   Keshav : hi all
[12:34]   r m : Hi Keshav
[12:52]   Shai : if it takes out 8535 road clears to 8557
[12:53]   Shai : BNFnot showing interest above 19330 today
[12:53]   RK : but BNF off from highs
[12:54]   Rav : sl hit
[12:56]   Shai : BNF could be the big mover in the afternoon session
[12:57]   RK : ok
[12:57]   Rav : up or down side
[12:57]   Shai : as long as 19200 holds we visist that 19400 and if he closes then 19560
[12:58]   RK : so above IBH would be a good set up to take a trade with SL 20 points below VWAP
[12:58]   Shai : yesterday on the secnd touch of 19400 he dd not sell more
[12:58]   Rav : SBI ICICI dragging BNF
[12:58]   Shai : so inference is he has been closing lower
[13:04]   Rav : until sbi comes back to green , no short in bnf
[13:04]   RK : Rav you mean long?
[13:05]   Rav : sorry long. no short since already sl hit
[13:05]   RK : My SL survived by just 1 rupee..lets see if it hits tgt
[13:05]   RK : but long trade already hit SL
[13:06]   RK : as you said its sideways in first sessio
[13:06]   RK : session
[13:07]   RK : but short trade missed by target by 3 rs before rising 🙂
[13:07]   Rav : till it comes out of sideways that is 19231.7 and 19301.3
[13:07]   Rav : 20000ce heavily written
[13:08]   RK : Shai entering back into IB in NF offers good trade with SL of day high?
[13:09]   Shai : yes RK
[13:09]   Shai : take it below vwap
[13:09]   RK : thnaks
[13:09]   RK : thanks
[13:10]   Amit J : can do short spread in bn
[13:14]   Rav : nf bnf witness alternate SBU and LBU. and in sdieways
[13:14]   Rav : sidewyas
[13:15]   Rav : since FII bought heavily in Index, may shoot up if more shorts are created.
[13:17]   r m : yeah, they bought everywhere, cash, index, ce
[13:17]   Rav : 8400pe are increasing to push nf up
[13:18]   Sharad : 8400 and 8500 both 6.25 lacs written
[13:18]   Sharad : put
[13:23]   RK : last friday last 2 hours swing in BNF
[13:23]   RK : by 1 pm 18700
[13:24]   RK : 2.15 – 18522 / 3.15 -18760 and close at 18640
[13:50]   Rav : 8500ce buying
[13:52]   Sharad : ES back to 1987 broken level repaired.
[13:52]   r m : NF approaching vwap band
[13:52]   RK : and VAH too
[13:52]   r m : yep
[13:52]   r m : 2IB as well :
[13:52]   r m : 🙂
[13:53]   r m : now seller will be sharpening their knives at PDH!
[13:54]   RK : and what if all these barriers are taken out..and may be to take this all only it seems allowing shorts there 🙂
[13:56]   r m : 🙂
[13:56]   RK : RM that BNF spike bar reminds you anything? :))
[13:56]   Rav : 8600ce too buying happening
[13:56]   r m : @RK 😀
[13:57]   RK : 🙂
[13:57]   r m : @RK, that looks like a harpoon!
[13:58]   Rav : SL hitting candle
[13:58]   RK : yeah
[13:58]   r m : yes
[14:01]   Rav : 8500-8600ce flying
[14:02]   Rav : 8600-8700 SC
[14:02]   Rav : CE
[14:03]   Rav : NF BNF came out of sideways
[14:06]   Varun : shai take a bow, superb call, both trgts hit
[14:06]   Varun : *slow claps*
[14:08]   Shai : 🙂
[14:08]   Shai : 8530/35 all imp this afternnon
[14:08]   Amit J : future?
[14:08]   Shai : some furious short covering can cme abv 8465 still
[14:08]   Shai : F
[14:09]   Shai : 8565**
[14:09]   RK : yes its difficult to come out of the range these days :))
[14:10]   Varun : shld we buy around 8535 we vwap as stop loss
[14:12]   Shai : yes sl for new longs below vwap
[14:13]   Varun : great
[14:14]   Amit J : do short spread in bn
[14:15]   Shai : same 8535 to supp- (12:52) Shai :if it takes out 8535 road clears to 8557
[14:15]   Shai : esle back to cwap
[14:16]   Shai : vwap
[14:19]   Shai : BNF has some shorts at 334- 345 but they aren’t big ones
[14:19]   Shai : price probe abv can force them to cover
[14:32]   Rav : 8000-8700 range has never been seen at mid period of expiry
[14:34]   Sharad : i think 8600 PE writing started
[14:34]   Sharad : 8500 strike already gone to bulls
[14:35]   Rav : bnf back to sideways for shorting
[14:36]   RK : that SL spike bar generally has tendenancy to send price down by minimum of 100 points
[14:39]   Rav : Agree
[14:40]   Mandar : GA All. Shai , view on sunpharma pls after todays move.
[14:41]   Rav : 19100-19300 pcr is confusing
[14:42]   Sharad : Reliance results today…and slowly moving upwards
[14:45]   Shai : sun pharma close abv 843 is good today
[14:46]   Shai : but buying vlumes need to multiple for you to look at 905 again
[14:46]   Mandar : spot close na?
[14:46]   Shai : yes cash
[14:46]   Mandar : thanks Shai.
[14:46]   Shai : just on the verge of that break abv but no increase in vols yet
[14:46]   Mandar : yes
[14:47]   Shai : think 855 will resist and come back down for more buyers
[14:47]   Mandar : ok
[14:48]   Porus : Shai, pls check HFCL short term levels. HAs moved up today.
[14:50]   Shai : hfcl also similar chart- cloing around the supply point
[14:50]   Shai : tgt is 22.2 but may take time
[14:50]   Amit J : mnm finance any view for short
[14:50]   Shai : good supp at 18 now
[14:52]   Shai : amit Esignal does not support sysmbols with special characters
[14:52]   Shai : Have never beem able to chart M&M
[14:53]   Amit J : m&mfin
[14:53]   Shai : regret
[14:53]   Shai : yes it’s that &
[14:54]   Shai : No data for that symbol
[14:54]   Shai : Friday afternoon and timid
[14:54]   Shai : antic climax
[14:54]   Shai : anti**
[14:54]   RK : yes 🙂
[14:55]   RK : all longs and shorts are safe 🙂
[14:55]   RK : delta swing in NF shows lack of conviction by either side
[14:57]   Shai : 8518 fair close
[14:57]   Shai : BNF 19280
[15:07]   Shai : es dropping 10 points from 87 to 77 now as we close
[15:08]   Shai : those day traders have made the most of the advantage of a 24 hour market
[15:10]   Shai : inside day
[15:10]   Shai : mostly a repair
[15:11]   Shai : ref lines are the same into Mon mostly
[15:11]   Shai : the FA below and 8565 above define the next move
[15:12]   Shai : BNF breaodly 18200- 18400
[15:13]   RK : 19200-19400 🙂
[15:17]   Shai : yes 🙂
[15:17]   Shai : sellers coming back
[15:17]   Shai : -107 now
[15:19]   RK : price not coming down..may be closing shorts
[15:21]   Rav : LBU NF BNF
[15:23]   Rav : 8500 and below pcr > 1 and 8600-8700ce is SC
[15:26]   r m : more than 7 lakh added to 8500PE OI
[15:27]   Shai : First one – http://www.alpari.co.uk/client-updates/notifications/posts/2015/january/important-announcement
[15:27]   Amit J : yes many more over weekend
[15:27]   Shai : true
[15:27]   RK : Yeah read this..what will happen to the equity of remaining investors with them
[15:27]   Shai : already heavy losses in crude were there an now this
[15:28]   RK : and how do our Indian brokers and system is structures to withstand such kind of adverse effects – touchwood 🙂
[15:28]   Amit J : crude rubble than comm and now franc
[15:28]   RK : structures
[15:28]   RK : *structured
[15:29]   Shai : RK we rely on the good names of our brokers here 🙂
[15:29]   RK : Shai similiar setup of buyers at closing same as 13th
[15:29]   RK : oops it changed momentirrily
[15:29]   RK : from buy qty to sell qty when I type
[15:30]   Shai : net is negative today
[15:30]   RK : yes thats why am asking Shai..we rely only on names 🙂
[15:31]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great weekend 🙂
[15:31]   Mandar : bye all.
[15:31]   Shai : 8536/ 19290
[15:31]   Shai : Bye all
[15:31]   RK : bye all
[15:31]   Shai : Have a nice evening
[15:31]   Sharad : Bye all
[15:31]   Amit J : bye
[15:31]   Keshav : good day everyone
[15:31]   Rav : BYE
[15:31]   Porus : bye