General Chat Transcript
Date and Time: September 18, 2014 09:15:43
[08:54] Shai : Gm all
[09:02] Chiranthan : Gm
[09:02] Sharad : GM all
[09:04] r m : Good Morning folks!
[09:04] r m : Hi Shai, Chiranthan, Sharad
[09:06] Chiranthan : Hi rm
[09:06] Manik : gm shai , rm & friends
[09:08] r m : Hi Manik
[09:09] Kathir : Good morning Shai RM amd all friends
[09:10] Narendra : Good morning Shai RM amd all friends
[09:11] r m : Hi Kathir, Narendra
[09:11] Kathir : hypo llevels ?
[09:11] r m : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-18th-sept/
[09:12] Shai : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-18th-sept/
[09:12] Shai : We are looking for an exit of value and range for a trade
[09:12] Shai : below VAlue we will get the bias right and exit of range will be the trigger
[09:14] Shai : The FED was a non- event and played out to market expectations
[09:18] Shai : 7956 low
[09:18] Shai : buyers off the open
[09:20] Shai : usdinr contained below 61.44
[09:21] Shai : eyes at VAL 7977
[09:25] Sumit : gm everyone
[09:25] r m : Hi Sumit
[09:25] Kathir : HI SUMIT
[09:26] Anay : GM All
[09:26] r m : Hi Anay
[09:27] Kathir : hi anay
[09:30] Manik : GM kathir
[09:31] Shai : Nf wants to do 80%
[09:32] Shai : keep trigger abv 7980 for 7996 sl of 7973
[09:33] Kathir : GM manik
[09:38] r m : wow!
[09:39] Narendra : book 50 percent in nifty
[09:39] Shai : lose all
[09:39] Shai : close*
[09:39] Narendra : ok
[09:39] Shai : 8070
[09:39] Shai : what d hell
[09:40] Sumit : 16034 high
[09:41] Sharad : what was this….
[09:41] Sharad : in just 15 min
[09:41] Sharad : 100 nifty
[09:41] Shai : no ticks btw 8035- 8070
[09:41] r m : @Sumit, green OF behaving like lottery ticket this time 🙂
[09:41] Narendra : todays morning high in bannifty was 15979
[09:42] r m : Hypo 1 in NF took 1 minute 🙂
[09:42] Kathir : yeah 🙂
[09:42] Shai : No some tick eroor
[09:42] Shai : fat fingers
[09:42] Sumit : yes rm.
[09:42] Shai : still plenty of buyers
[09:42] Kathir : if this had happenned 5 min before i would have got a huge profit
[09:42] Narendra : yesterdays 100 point move coming on the positive side
[09:42] Sharad : True RM … but can all see NF and BNF both at a time in screen… i can not see even in full screen mode
[09:43] Sumit : but didn’t take position
[09:43] Shai : can rush to 8100
[09:44] r m : yes Sumit, possible to monitor only one at a time, one has to slide the screen otherwise
[09:45] Sharad : but can Shai adjust height of main charts so that we can see both ata time
[09:46] Sharad : like profile charts we can see both two geather
[09:46] r m : perhaps width reduction may do the trick, but then less of each chart will be visible?
[09:46] r m : i mean reduce the width of NF and BNF charts and display them side to side
[09:47] Narendra : 2 times seller came as nifty comes around 8070
[09:47] Sharad : that is also possible … or just reduce height and that will be good
[09:47] Sumit : or move the top blue/red bars of bnf at the bottom
[09:47] Shai : Sharad this weekend I will reduce the width and see if it gets better
[09:48] Sharad : ok good… as i was watching BNF and did not know that nifty moved so much
[09:48] Shai : 8070- 8080 previous support became supply and now reference
[09:49] Shai : supp of last week and supply this week
[09:49] r m : Green OF signal in BNF generated 165 points!!
[09:49] Shai : 8048 support now
[09:50] Shai : lots of contracts were taken off yesterday- this could be the institutions putting it back
[09:50] Kathir : bnf supp now?
[09:50] Shai : 15970
[09:51] Shai : refer hypo
[09:51] Kathir : ok thanks
[09:51] Shai : 16130 tgt
[09:52] Kathir : previously when NF was at 8070 -80 bnf was at 16300
[09:52] Amit J : superb shai – 7955. beautiful
[09:53] r m : @Amit, remember that 8150 possibility mentioned by Shai yeseterday – we talked about 8100CE lottery ticket 🙂
[09:53] Sharad : yes RM
[09:53] r m : I bought the lottery this morning and it tripled 🙂
[09:54] Kathir : 11 low today and 44 high
[09:54] r m : i mean i exited when it tripled
[09:54] Kathir : @rm great trade congrats
[09:54] r m : Thanks man, credit to my accout and thanks to Shai’s 🙂
[09:55] Kathir : lol
[09:55] Shai : failed auction theory 🙂 All credit there- (09:52) Amit J:superb shai – 7955. beautiful
[09:55] Kathir : if you want i am ready to give my bank account number..no hesitation please
[09:55] Shai : theory is – If FA point is not visisted in 5 days then becomes a big short trem support
[09:56] r m : @Kathir, sure, I will take training from Nigerian scam guys and help you out 🙂
[09:56] r m : OK Shai, thanks
[09:57] Shai : 8048 and 8016 supports to hold
[09:57] Shai : else we go back to day low below 8016
[09:57] Kathir : morning bnf struggled a bot to cross pdl..after 10 mins now rfuses to go below pdh
[09:57] Kathir : 🙂
[09:57] r m : such are the vagaries of stock markets 🙂
[09:58] Sumit : still green. lottery ticket not closed yet
[09:59] r m : yes, may be such huge extensions present a good opportunity to convert part of OF trade into Shai’s hypo based trades?
[10:03] r m : reds coming in BNF too now
[10:04] Sumit : green OF not giving up
[10:05] r m : yes
[10:05] r m : some blue bars appearing now and then to give it sustenance!
[10:06] Sumit : from 9.38 to 9.40, 125 pts in bn
[10:07] Kathir : any info why this went up suddenly so fast?
[10:08] r m : ours is not to ask why … 😀
[10:08] Kathir : 🙂
[10:08] r m : (09:50) Shai :lots of contracts were taken off yesterday- this could be the institutions putting it back
[10:09] r m : pink appeareth
[10:14] Shai : spot traders- cross of 8051 now will give 8085 by close
[10:14] Shai : BN spot has to cross 16015 for 16130
[10:15] Shai : high possible scenario is expiry around 8080 spot
[10:16] Shai : As long a s we stay above 8016 today, today’s NF profile is a rejection of yesterday’s value and moving up
[10:17] Shai : shorts will keep covering now as long as that 8043 and vwap hold in today’s chart
[10:18] Anay : ok
[10:18] Anay : no fresh shorting to be done?
[10:18] Shai : another reference area is trend day profile of tuesday which was 7952- 8056
[10:18] Shai : so if we hold above that trend day market is good to go up and possibly close tomorrow at 8152
[10:19] Shai : Anay shorts in with a chance onnly till 8080 F holds
[10:19] Shai : I’m expecting 8105/ 8152 above that 8080
[10:19] Anay : right…8080 is the SL
[10:20] Shai : auction now should stay 8050- 8080 and probe for seller strength- auction market theory
[10:20] Anay : ok
[10:31] r m : Zerodha trader’s option calculator has resumed its duties 🙂
[10:32] Shai : 8000 ce has dropped 15%
[10:32] Shai : in OI that is
[10:34] Shai : Intra OI % change- http://screencast.com/t/49cQVHyyx9Fn
[10:35] Shai : and this is the chart from Tuesday- http://screencast.com/t/xQrIVU5s3J
[10:35] Shai : sorry Monday
[10:36] Shai : In BNF we can take a long trade again abv IBH for 16130
[10:37] Shai : or buy below at 16000 with sl below 15970 for 16050/ 16130 on cross
[10:44] Kathir : @shai what is the supp and res for usd/inr now?
[10:47] Shai : usdinr has gobe back to a quiet mode
[10:48] Shai : I see 61.10 today from here
[10:48] Shai : but the bigger move could be next week when 61.10 breaks and we get 6071
[10:48] Kathir : ok thanks
[10:48] Shai : this week tom could close back at 602.25- 60.30
[10:49] Shai : Volatility should come back in usdinr now only after next wed as it prepares for RBI next
[10:49] Kathir : ok
[10:49] Shai : better blue in the BNF chart
[10:57] Kathir : 8200 WAS PREVIOUS HIGH RIGHT?
[10:57] r m : yep
[10:58] Kathir : @shai nf bnf supp same now 8048 and 15970?
[10:59] r m : http://screencast.com/t/u1m7eoYMQnaU
[11:00] Kathir : @RM thanks
[11:00] r m : welcome
[11:03] Shai : can move sl’s to just below dpoc
[11:03] Shai : in a trend day vwap lags but dpoc should keep rising
[11:03] Shai : watch for signs of sellers in BNF at 16130
[11:04] Shai : if they dont come by 16155 then we rise to 16308 by tom
[11:05] Shai : It’s a trend day so 2 things will happen between now and close
[11:06] Shai : 1) we will get a pull back between 12.00 and 1.40 which will be an adjustment of inventory
[11:06] Shai : this pull back has to hold vwap at all costs
[11:06] Shai : 2) if vwap holds we will close at 3.30 at session highs
[11:07] Anay : ok
[11:07] Anay : applies for both NF and BNF rt?
[11:24] Kathir : @anay applies for both
[11:25] Anay : ok thanks
[11:26] Shai : yes applies to both and all traded instruments actually
[11:26] Shai : Nf now probing above 8080 for new buyers
[11:26] Shai : Not there yet
[11:27] Shai : 8105 is the ref line in F
[11:27] Shai : 8085 spot
[11:28] Shai : 16155 BNF F and 16105 spot
[11:32] Anay : where is NF VWAP currently?
[11:33] Sumit : 8046
[11:34] Kathir : 8051 now coming up
[11:35] Anay : ok
[11:35] Kathir : @RM where is the dpoc band for NF..doesnt appear on screen
[11:36] Shai : 8006
[11:36] Shai : dpoc is the blue line
[11:36] Shai : it should come to 8080 now
[11:36] Narendra : 8066
[11:36] Shai : big volume being exchanged here
[11:41] Shai : aggressive selling coming in NF
[11:42] Shai : 8075 is ref line below IBH- Buyers have to come and protect it
[11:42] Shai : else can go to vwap
[11:42] Kathir : @shai i asked about the dpoc band..like 16081 in bnf
[11:42] Shai : that is the upper dev value area
[11:43] r m : 8092
[11:43] r m : dvah in NF
[11:43] Shai : will firm up as value area tom
[11:43] Shai : 8092 now
[11:43] Kathir : ok thanks
[11:51] Narendra : shai view on hdfc fut for short term
[11:51] Narendra : i am swing long
[11:55] Shai : can add abv 1045.6 as move will be fast to 1059
[11:55] Shai : resistance now at 1067 F
[11:56] Shai : close abv 1045 better
[11:57] Shai : 1054 then is certain tom
[11:57] Narendra : ok
[12:00] Shai : NF longer OrderFlow has changed bias to longs – Buy signal at 8082
[12:00] Shai : BNF Buy signal not yet activated
[12:00] Chiranthan : This is for positional buy in NF?
[12:02] Narendra : ya recieved on twitter
[12:02] Narendra : 8084
[12:03] Shai : Yes Positionals Buyers becoming stronger
[12:04] Shai : That’s the strength of a bull market- 8 day trend can reverse in 2 hours
[12:06] Shai : technical traget of the signal is 8126 F anmd 8230 F- refer to your FDN notes
[12:06] Shai : sl below 8023 F now on closing basis
[12:10] Sumit : Shai, 16103 was buyer??
[12:10] Shai : yes
[12:10] Sumit : what can be the sl for bnf now
[12:11] Shai : No wait – that algo sold into a rising market
[12:12] Shai : he’s at 16103 absorbing the buying
[12:12] Sumit : ok thanks
[12:13] r m : a little bit less volume in that algo compared to the one at 16048?
[12:13] Sumit : so far he is doing a good job
[12:13] Kathir : hdfc above 1045 now 1051
[12:13] Shai : this must be a pre planned order
[12:13] r m : ok
[12:14] Shai : we can see that 8048 was all buys
[12:14] Shai : 16048*
[12:15] Shai : thank Narendra for pointing that out- (12:13) Kathir :hdfc above 1045 now 1051
[12:16] Kathir : yes shai thanks both 🙂
[12:16] Sumit : Shai, now 16130 very likely and will offer resistance??
[12:16] r m : it is thanksgiving season 🙂
[12:16] Kathir : yeah :)lol
[12:17] Narendra : if i want to trail hdfc bought @ 1034 what should be the sl
[12:18] Kathir : @rm shai mentioned bhel above 226 wil touch 240..today it has crossed
[12:18] Kathir : spot
[12:18] r m : @Kathir, keep miniting man 🙂
[12:19] Kathir : 🙂
[12:20] Sumit : Shai, now what strategy at 16130 bnf?
[12:21] Kathir : shai has put the red line for nf at 8100..so nf has to fight there
[12:27] Shai : Sumit – safe would be to exit and buy abv 16160
[12:28] Sumit : thanks Shai
[12:28] Shai : or keep tsl at a pink whenevre it comes
[12:28] Sumit : ya possible
[12:29] Kathir : @shai inr below 61.10 if short below 61.09 what will be Sl
[12:29] Shai : 10 point sl and 10 point tgt
[12:29] Shai : I don’t expect 61 to break this week
[12:30] Sumit : Shai, can you remove 8100 line please 🙂
[12:30] Kathir : lol
[12:30] Kathir : ok thanks
[12:30] r m : 😀
[12:33] Shai : it’s a good trade if 16160 is crossed
[12:33] Shai : + 150 for the taking though we will part book at 16230
[12:33] Shai : tgt is 16310
[12:33] Shai : same way 8105- 8140 F
[12:35] Shai : sometimes the auction just wants to reach a place and our NSE will provide a plaform just like 8016- 8045- 8070 this morning
[12:35] Shai : tick or no tick- we will get there 🙂
[12:35] r m : tickless trading 🙂
[12:36] Shai : 8108
[12:36] Chiranthan : NF a buy now?
[12:38] Anay : NF sellers at highs?
[12:38] Shai : buy abv 8108 with sl below 8094 for 8035/ 8048
[12:39] Shai : 8135/ 8148*
[12:39] Shai : Anay move being sold into- If we don’t pullback today we will revsisit here at these levels in 2-3 sessions
[12:40] Anay : ok
[12:41] Shai : the problem with auction market theory’s 80% rule and the trend day concept is that they always get what they want
[12:41] Shai : and everythiung else including orderflow takes a back seat
[12:44] Shai : but passive buyers are stronger today
[13:17] Shai : nO pull back in the trend day today
[13:18] Shai : 14 poinmts is the biggest drop
[13:18] Shai : max we can expect a drop is of 28 then off highs
[13:18] Shai : so 8095 is a safe sl now
[13:19] Narendra : shai i am long in 3 stocks can u help me how to manage this trade
[13:19] Shai : 64 point drop in BNF is max
[13:19] Narendra : rcom fut 101.3, nhpc fut20.4, hdfc fut 1034
[13:20] Shai : yes sure – would be my pleasure
[13:20] Shai : intra or swing?
[13:20] Narendra : swing
[13:20] Narendra : whats should be the tgt i should look and what should be the trailing sl
[13:21] Shai : HDFC 1067 is res – if you get 1059 today or tom at open start reducing and keep sl at 1055 on rest
[13:22] Shai : hard stop is now at 1043 whicg shgould not violate if you want 1067
[13:22] Shai : hard stop at 1044 * not 1043
[13:23] Shai : 1067 can come tom at close or mon at open
[13:26] Shai : rcom F has res at 108- 109
[13:26] Shai : it’s a technical bounce and would suggest book gains closer to that
[13:27] Shai : 107 is easy from here
[13:28] Shai : NHPC 20.92 res
[13:29] Shai : if it closes abv 21.2 tom then you will get 21.92
[13:29] Shai : 21.92/ 22.6
[13:30] Narendra : what should be the sl now in rcom and nhpc
[13:30] Shai : Nhpc 20.25
[13:31] Shai : rcom 103.7
[13:31] Shai : trailing
[13:31] Narendra : ok thanks
[13:31] Shai : mw
[13:35] Kathir : usd/ir 61.02 🙂
[13:35] Shai : And I thought 8152 would come tom 🙂 – (10:18) Shai :so if we hold above that trend day market is good to go up and possibly close tomorrow at 8152
[13:35] r m : 🙂
[13:37] Shai : On blast up in BNF is pending
[13:37] Shai : usually comes after 2.30
[13:37] Shai : can do 100- 150 points quickly
[13:38] Shai : that will be our 15300 tgt
[13:39] Anay : 16300 🙂
[13:39] Kathir : @anay yeah this market morning deals with 15 k and eve 16k
[13:40] Shai : 16300 yes 🙂
[13:41] Kathir : shai’s 8100 red line seems to be very strong
[13:41] r m : @Kathir, borrow that pencil from Shai and draw lines after you enter a trade 🙂
[13:42] Kathir : lol
[13:42] Kathir : 🙂
[13:42] Sumit : 🙂
[13:43] Kathir : have to be carefull sometimes in a hury i will draw the line opposite side
[13:43] Sumit : rm, bnf green since 12.05
[13:43] Kathir : @shai can we take that 16140 bnf as support for intra
[13:44] Shai : Kathir take this for close at highs- (13:19) Shai :64 point drop in BNF is max
[13:44] r m : @Sumit, bnf was pink from 1300 to 1308 – short lived existence of pink
[13:44] Shai : about 120
[13:45] Sumit : oh that was nf.
[13:45] Sumit : but this is not bad either
[13:45] r m : yeah, nf is riding on a white horse today
[13:46] Kathir : ok shai
[13:53] Kathir : @RM u was happy with triple but it gave u another triple
[13:54] r m : yeah, Shai gave the target of 8150 yesterday
[13:54] Kathir : yes
[13:54] r m : but i sold yesterday for 5 points, got it back 16 poins cheaper today
[13:55] r m : looks like NF is done today?
[13:59] Kathir : ok ge
[13:59] Narendra : vwap too far from cmp
[14:00] Shai : does not matter today
[14:01] r m : I think indo-china agreements are about to be annouced now
[14:01] Shai : (11:03) Shai :in a trend day vwap lags but dpoc should keep rising
[14:01] Shai : Rm prefer NF to look up 8150- 58 once
[14:01] r m : ok, thanks
[14:02] Shai : Having said that OrderFlow is not conducive for this move abv 8080 F
[14:02] Shai : so we but ATM puts in last 10 minutes today
[14:02] r m : ok
[14:03] Narendra : dpoc is 8066 in nifty
[14:03] Shai : the morning after trend day should give us a vwap or vpoc visist
[14:03] Shai : yes it is not rising
[14:04] Shai : (13:18) Shai :14 poinmts is the biggest drop
[14:04] Shai : (13:18) Shai :max we can expect a drop is of 28 then off highs
[14:04] Shai : 8105 new supp
[14:11] r m : no agreement on border disputes
[14:12] Shai : eyes on BNF
[14:12] Shai : holding abv 16150
[14:19] Shai : Nf headed for 8200 F
[14:20] Shai : cancle the idea of buying puts
[14:20] r m : ok, thanks
[14:22] Shai : Minor res at 16230 and off she will go abv that again
[14:23] Kathir : oh shai treating bnf as a girl 🙂
[14:24] r m : yeah, sweet 25 🙂
[14:24] Kathir : infact naughty girl
[14:24] Kathir : when she is angry e have to be very arefull
[14:24] Kathir : we
[14:24] Kathir : carefull
[14:25] r m : tantrums you know 🙂
[14:25] Kathir : 🙂
[14:26] Kathir : @rm if market closes in this range will there be any gap up tomrw?
[14:27] r m : @Kathir, i guess that is what Shai’s thoughts are behind changing the decision to buy ATM puts
[14:28] Kathir : ok ge
[14:28] Kathir : ATM?
[14:29] r m : at the money 🙂
[14:29] r m : always use jargon 😀
[14:29] Kathir : 🙂 ok..then we can go to real ATM
[14:31] Anay : dpoc stil at 8066
[14:32] r m : market spent a lot of time in 8120-8130 range, high time dpoc goes there too 🙂
[14:33] r m : it is at 8084 actually, just see the MP charts
[14:34] Anay : oh yes
[14:38] Anay : @Shai below what level is the view to 8200 negated?
[14:38] Shai : Not yet active till we cross 8158
[14:39] Shai : I feel one leg down to 808-0 if we stay below 8158 and then up to 8200
[14:39] Shai : But if we cross 8158 now then shorts will cover
[14:39] Shai : one leg down to 8080 or 8100 pending
[14:40] Anay : ok
[14:41] Mandar : Shai , as usual you are spot on :-). And you guys should congratulate me for making that wild guess:-)
[14:41] r m : @Mandar, Congrats man 🙂
[14:42] Mandar : haha…
[14:42] r m : Now I am looking for the guy who made the wild guess of 7850 😀
[14:43] Mandar : look it makes prediction so easier 🙂
[14:43] r m : lol
[14:43] Shai : Mandar 🙂
[14:44] Shai : It’s not like that – it looks good always in hindsight – but I am more conservative and wait for the view to match with orderflow data
[14:44] Mandar : yes boss.
[14:45] Shai : If the market would have gone below 7944 F today I would have forgotten everything and traded for that 7850
[14:46] Shai : Today’s move is backed by strength coming back in BNF
[14:46] Shai : OI data should show about 500- 6000 new contracts
[14:46] Shai : 5000- 6000
[14:47] Shai : Just to add – you are as good as your last trade in this market
[14:47] Shai : and everyone gets humbled
[14:47] r m : 🙂
[14:47] Mandar : Shai, i got in at 8030 levels as suggested by you.
[14:48] Shai : good 🙂
[14:53] Shai : 16219 BNF
[14:57] Kathir : @Shai usd/inr below 60.90 will it touch 60.70
[14:58] Shai : yes
[14:58] Shai : Ordder flow is not as strong as price action would make us believe
[14:59] Kathir : ok thanks
[14:59] Mandar : Shai now 8150 still imp. level.?
[14:59] Shai : and we are not going above 8158 today
[14:59] Shai : so I think 8080 first then 8200
[14:59] Mandar : ok
[15:00] r m : @Shai, it happens very frequently like this on trend days – poor OF and poorer contra traders!
[15:00] Shai : yes
[15:01] Shai : so the reset of trend day is also there
[15:01] r m : ok
[15:01] r m : the liquidity providers also need to reset their inventory, they must be getting horribly short on days like today
[15:01] Shai : if w edip now to 8080 – 8095 we will see all that blue coming back
[15:02] r m : ok
[15:03] Shai : yes the algos are all the pro shops
[15:03] Shai : since we had quite a few we should watch their OI today
[15:03] r m : ok
[15:05] Shai : 25 mins to go and cvol of 14.25
[15:06] Shai : remember I mentioned on that Mon trend down day that 12 million was not enough
[15:06] Shai : 16 million in NF today is a good vol
[15:06] r m : ok
[15:06] Shai : 18 is very good
[15:07] Shai : we should get to 16 is those cover orders come in next 10 mins
[15:08] Mandar : at 8152 expiry it will be 200+
[15:10] Kathir : at last bnf shifted its dpoc
[15:10] r m : better late then never!
[15:10] Kathir : yeah
[15:17] Shai : BNf not crossing 230
[15:18] Kathir : shai buy pe’s now for tomrw or wait fr morning open?
[15:19] Shai : Buy at open tom if we are below highs of today
[15:19] Shai : there is blue coming at close
[15:19] Kathir : ok thanks
[15:23] Shai : 16330 tom
[15:23] Shai : 16150 is sl
[15:23] Shai : can also abuy abv 16230 at open
[15:23] Kathir : ok
[15:25] r m : 16300CE should reach 141 @ 16300 tomorrow and 78 @ 16150 SL,
[15:26] Shai : ok
[15:26] Shai : thanks
[15:26] r m : welcome
[15:27] Kathir : thanks RM ge
[15:27] Kathir : @rm first you give 16150 for us
[15:27] r m : that is a better way 🙂
[15:28] Kathir : 🙂
[15:30] Sumit : good bye everyone
[15:30] Shai : Bye all
[15:30] Shai : Have a nice evening
[15:30] r m : Thanks and bye all, have a great evening
[15:30] Kathir : thanks and bye all..have a nice eve 🙂
[15:30] Mandar : bye all
[15:30] Chiranthan : Bye all
[15:35] Anay : bye all
[15:36] Amit J : shai can you please explain
[15:36] Amit J : how to track failure acution
[15:48] Shai : explained here- http://vtrender.com/of-failed-auctions-and-revisits-4/