OrderFlow charts and Notes 23/09

Sept_Bnf Sept_Nf

 

 

 

 

 

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General Chat Transcript

 

Room Name: Vtrender
Date and Time: September 23, 2014 08:34:10[08:42]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[08:46]   Shai : Gm alll
[08:46]   Shai : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-23rd-sept/
[08:56]   Mandar : Good morning Shai and All.
[08:56]   Mandar : Hi RM
[08:57]   Mandar : SGX?
[08:59]   r m : Hi Mandar
[08:59]   Sharad : GM all
[09:00]   r m : SGX t 8191, OCT Futures
[09:00]   Mandar : Thanks RM.
[09:00]   r m : http://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
[09:01]   r m : welcome
[09:02]   Sharad : RM why SGX shift to october future so soon
[09:03]   r m : investing.com is displaying OCT futures, sep must be trading in sgx as well
[09:03]   Sharad : ok ok
[09:05]   Kathir : Good morning Shai RM and all friends
[09:06]   r m : Hi Kathir
[09:13]   Manik : hi shai,rm ,kathir and friends
[09:13]   r m : Hi Manik
[09:13]   Kathir : hi Manikandan
[09:14]   Saurabh : Hi , GM to all
[09:14]   r m : Hi Saurabh
[09:14]   Kathir : Hi saurabh
[09:20]   Shai : NF open slightly better than sgx was projecting
[09:21]   Shai : expecting calm in the markets today to facilitate rollovers
[09:21]   r m : Guess FII wanted to buy cheap so pushed SGX down but indian traders not taken in 🙂
[09:23]   Kathir : 🙂
[09:23]   Shai : 8134- 8140 had buyin g volumes
[09:23]   Shai : but poor structure below 8134- so if we drop below 8134 we gon straight to 8110 again
[09:24]   Shai : above 8140 the NF will paly on strength
[09:24]   Kathir : @shai shal we buy bnf above 230-240?
[09:24]   Shai : 16190- 16203 the levels in BNf to hold this morning
[09:25]   Shai : yes buy abv 240
[09:27]   Kathir : ok thanks
[09:29]   Shai : pure option play today would be to buy atm options of oct
[09:30]   Shai : expecting vix to jump upto 14 by next wed
[09:30]   Shai : current 11.30
[09:30]   Shai : an 8200 ce and 8100 pe of oct will give returns from here regardless of direction based on the vix
[09:31]   Narendra : buy both
[09:31]   Shai : yes buys
[09:32]   Shai : it’s an vix strategy as vix is not tradeable these days
[09:33]   Kathir : otherwise we can take long vix
[09:34]   Sumit : gm everyone
[09:34]   r m : Hi Sumit
[09:34]   Narendra : yesterdays pe should be book partially here
[09:34]   Kathir : hi sumit
[09:34]   Shai : haven’t llooked at vix F
[09:34]   Sumit : hi rm, Kathir
[09:34]   Shai : but the violumes were negligible in that when we last looked
[09:35]   Shai : Yes Narendra book part in the pe
[09:35]   Shai : It’s 25 to 34 now on that 8150 pe
[09:36]   Shai : Short NF below 8133 sl of 8149 tgt 8112
[09:39]   Kathir : @rm what will be price of 8100 ce @ 8115
[09:40]   r m : 44
[09:41]   Kathir : ok thanks ge
[09:41]   r m : welcome jee
[09:42]   Kathir : @rm please give me the calc for another two days
[09:42]   Kathir : calculator
[09:42]   r m : ready for another two years 🙂
[09:42]   Kathir : oh great 🙂
[09:43]   Kathir : two years is enough to become PAWAP
[09:43]   Kathir : pawar
[09:43]   Shai : lol
[09:43]   r m : 🙂
[09:44]   r m : @Kathir, selling options with Bracket order would be only slighly costlier than buying?
[09:44]   r m : *slightly
[09:44]   Sumit : Shai, rm, sometimes in the morning when I enter the room, it stays white blank screen. is it net problem. perhaps low bandwidth
[09:44]   Sumit : need to close and enter again and again
[09:45]   r m : it could be Sumit, i have run out of 4mbps bandwidth this month and get frequently kicked out of the room 🙁
[09:46]   Sumit : ok. thanks rm
[09:46]   Kathir : @RM selling options depends on the time.i mean how many days before settlement
[09:46]   r m : yeah, but you are doing it intraday these days?
[09:47]   Kathir : yeah..when SL hits i will sell the oppsote one
[09:47]   r m : ok
[09:50]   Kathir : but setlmnt very near both pe and ce gives same profit
[09:50]   r m : ok
[10:11]   Shai : Steady auction
[10:12]   Shai : probe up to 8161 met a seller
[10:12]   Shai : path of least resistance seems to be dowwards from here in NF
[10:12]   Shai : BNF has a big buyer at 16137
[10:13]   Shai : sellers again operating at 16230
[10:31]   Kathir : @RM opt calc working now for me..they gave some patch file
[10:32]   r m : ok, good
[10:34]   Kathir : is it possible for you to come in gmail chat now?
[10:35]   r m : sure
[10:44]   Shai : More of a repair job in the orderflow today over yesterday
[10:45]   Shai : not a lot of new selling seen
[10:46]   Shai : If we see buyers aroun 8112- 8115 today then we buy 8150 ce for a close at day highs
[10:47]   r m : BNF showng blue at lows
[10:47]   Shai : second screen has both sept and oct orderflow
[10:47]   Shai : and we can see on that dip lower there were no sellers
[10:50]   Kathir : @shai please give me PNB spot levels for short
[10:53]   Shai : ok
[10:57]   Shai : PNB headed towwrds supp of 959
[10:58]   Shai : 967 1st supp
[10:58]   Kathir : ok for shorts what will be SL
[10:58]   Shai : 959 is a big one in the chart
[10:58]   Shai : above 992 if short here
[10:59]   Kathir : ok thanks shai
[10:59]   Shai : mw
[11:04]   Shai : exit the NF short trade if we cross 8148
[11:04]   Shai : there is buying from below
[11:06]   Kathir : @shai what SL for bnf buy near 16120 now?
[11:06]   Kathir : as per hypo
[11:07]   r m : it was 30 points in the hypo
[11:07]   Kathir : 30 points from 16120 – 16090 SL
[11:07]   Shai : 16095
[11:07]   Kathir : ok
[11:23]   Kathir : @rm repo rate 8 and reverse repo7 is it right?
[11:29]   r m : reverse repo should be higher
[11:30]   r m : or maybe I am confused :), wll check
[11:31]   r m : ok, reverse will be cheaper, that is RBI’s borrowing rate, govt always gets cheaper money 😀
[11:31]   r m : http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/WSSView.aspx?Id=19316
[11:32]   r m : yes, 8 & 7
[11:52]   Anay : haha…bmw 😀
[12:20]   Amit J : OCT IVs low due to holidays.
[12:35]   Shai : possibly
[12:36]   Shai : sellers came in NF on tegh second attempt below 8133
[12:37]   Shai : 8117 done- book 50% and sl is now 8137 on rest
[12:52]   Shai : exit shorts over 8137
[12:53]   Shai : cross of vwap means we may close at day highs
[12:53]   Shai : Yesterday’s notes- http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-2209/
[12:54]   Shai : much better orderflow today over yesterday in the same region
[12:55]   Shai : The view was- [13:35] Shai : If we don’t visist 8100 now and close higher near 8150, buy some 8100 puts for tom – we will visit 8100 F again tom
[12:55]   Shai : Post market corrected to 8110
[12:56]   Shai : would have preferred 8112 even 8103 but we take 8117
[12:56]   Shai : confirmation comes if the buyers take it abv vwap now
[13:15]   Shai : Sellers coming back
[13:16]   Shai : looks like we will go below 8110
[13:22]   Mandar : Shai, do you have dow charts.?
[13:22]   Shai : No _ only Spx I track
[13:23]   Mandar : ok.
[13:25]   Shai : Cover all NF shorts now
[13:26]   Shai : If we cross abv 8114 we should have a day low
[13:26]   Shai : 8097
[13:28]   Anay : @Shai can u check SBIN OF? looking for intra longs
[13:29]   Shai : Anay- I don’t have the OF chart for SBIN
[13:29]   Shai : all these OF charts are unique and we cannot place 1 instrument on the other
[13:30]   Anay : ok
[13:30]   Anay : NF below VWAP band
[13:31]   r m : severe attack on PE writers
[13:34]   Shriraj : shai thnx f cipla below 606—595
[13:35]   Shai : 🙂
[13:38]   Shai : nice shakeout staright down to yesterday lows
[13:38]   Shai : bulls still tendtaive here
[13:39]   Narendra : european markets cracked after opening slightly negative
[13:40]   r m : some color in the cheeks of indiavix 🙂
[13:41]   Shai : trading below vwap band
[13:41]   Shai : 8054 is a supp
[13:41]   Shai : 8035 below
[13:44]   Chiranthan : Your view on Can Bank futures for positional trade?
[13:48]   Shai : Can Bank is weak below 387- 390 and can see 368 positionally
[13:49]   Shai : abv 391 can rise upto 408
[13:49]   Chiranthan : ok thnks
[13:49]   Shai : mw
[13:49]   Kathir : @rm went out and came back..market in a differrent zone
[13:49]   Shai : pnb came to 370
[13:50]   Kathir : missed cipla
[13:50]   Shai : 970*
[13:50]   Kathir : yes shai pnb covered..thanks
[14:02]   Shai : Resell NF between 8075- 8078 with sl above 8089 for 8056/ 8036
[14:03]   Shai : 50% qty trade
[14:05]   Shai : Nf will do 15910
[14:05]   Shai : 16015 now res
[14:06]   Shai : *BNF
[14:19]   Amit J : shai any view on sunpharma
[14:21]   Shai : supp in sun pharma at 768- 770
[14:21]   Shai : biigger sup at 744 where buyers of long time frame should enter if visited
[14:22]   Shai : 823 and 797 2 res now above
[14:25]   Amit J : thanks
[14:26]   Shai : we will close ta the lows today
[14:33]   Shai : 8054- (14:02) Shai :Resell NF between 8075- 8078 with sl above 8089 for 8056/ 8036
[14:34]   Anay : buyers stepping in in BNF?
[14:35]   r m : blue OF there since morning, God knows what they are buying 🙂
[14:36]   Manik : LOL
[14:36]   Anay : 😀
[14:36]   Kathir : 🙂
[14:37]   Shai : No not a lot of buying happening
[14:37]   r m : ok
[14:39]   Kathir : @shai shall we buy nf based on 8036 supp
[14:50]   Shai : buy at the close
[14:51]   Chiranthan : Can I buy 8100 ce sep at close?
[14:51]   Shai : 8050 would be better
[14:52]   Shai : for tom that trade will pay very well if we cross 8070 F
[14:52]   Chiranthan : ok
[14:52]   Shai : now the lines I am looking at are 8070 and 8036
[14:52]   Shai : Below 8036 we run to 8011 and 7955 again quickly
[14:53]   Shai : above 8070 we fo to 8105/ 8140
[15:01]   Kathir : @shai usd/inr 61.10 still a big resistance
[15:02]   Kathir : and 60.70 support
[15:02]   r m : 3IB in BNF
[15:03]   Shai : Yes Kathir No change
[15:04]   Shai : 8036- (14:02) Shai :Resell NF between 8075- 8078 with sl above 8089 for 8056/ 8036
[15:04]   Kathir : ok thanks
[15:08]   Anay : @Shai lower levels 2moro?
[15:11]   Shriraj : cipla hammered 2day….
[15:11]   Shriraj : % down …580
[15:11]   Shriraj : 5% down
[15:12]   Shai : Sellers coming
[15:12]   Shai : Anay we have to see the open
[15:12]   Anay : hmm
[15:12]   Shai : rule book says that if we go lower we may have a low before 10.30 am tomorrow
[15:12]   Anay : ok
[15:13]   Shai : lower than today’s lows that is
[15:13]   Anay : rt
[15:13]   Shai : today is double distribution down
[15:13]   Shai : so close at lows again
[15:14]   Kathir : 8100 c pe pair huge volumes today
[15:16]   r m : BNF is back into the value of normal profile on 17th, rather tottering on the edge of value!
[15:17]   Shai : Volume imbalance suggesting a rise tom to 8075 from here
[15:18]   Shai : we buy 8050 ce in last 10 minutes
[15:19]   Shai : 22 now
[15:19]   Shai : can exit tomorrow neatr 8070 F
[15:23]   Anay : ok
[15:24]   Shai : Vix 12.4
[15:25]   Shai : If anyone took that buy vix trade in the morning off the options it is running into a profit
[15:26]   Shai : it would with a move like this – but 8% gains are from vix
[15:26]   Shai : expect vix to keep rising now till RBI day
[15:26]   Kathir : RBI SEP 30TH
[15:26]   Anay : ok
[15:27]   Kathir : shai 8050 ce 3 up
[15:29]   r m : should rise to 37-38 tomorrow at 8075
[15:30]   Shai : Bye all
[15:30]   Shai : Have anic eevening
[15:30]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂
[15:30]   Mandar : bye all
[15:30]   Chiranthan : Bye all
[15:31]   Kathir : thanks and bye all :
[15:32]   Anay : bye all