OrderFlow charts and Notes 25/11

[08:55]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[08:55]   r m : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-251114/
[08:55]   r m : http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-2411/
[08:56]   Porus : GM all
[08:56]   Assortz : GM RM
[08:56]   r m : NF Hypo1 Above 8539➜8558➜8573 SL 8521 Hypo2 Below 8504➜8471➜8437
[08:56]   r m : BNF Hypo1 Above 18360➜18524 SL 18267 Hypo2 Below 18260➜18210➜18135 SL 18335
[08:56]   r m : Hi Assortz 🙂
[09:00]   r m : Imp data during market hours 12:30 German GDP
[09:01]   Sharad : GM all
[09:07]   Shai : GM all
[09:13]   Ravi V P : GM all
[09:17]   r m : @Shai, what is an appropriate stop for shorts if Hypo2 comes into play
[09:17]   r m : for NF
[09:17]   Shai : NF will be vwap
[09:17]   r m : Thanks!
[09:18]   Shai : Open is within range and value
[09:21]   r m : yesterday vwap temporarily checked the fall in both
[09:22]   Shai : FA points in both yesterday and ur big ref levels for bulls this week
[09:22]   Shai : new momentum is abv VAH and pdh though
[09:26]   Shai : BNF in the 80% rule
[09:28]   Shai : Open has settled down in the value and range of yesterday
[09:29]   Shai : Looks like rollover time today and a quiet market
[09:29]   Sumit : gm everyone
[09:33]   Shai : buyers in BNF
[09:42]   Shai : Looking like a drive now
[09:43]   Shai : all those buyers in BNF have disappeared
[09:43]   Shai : good chances of seeing the FA points of yesterday where we wait for further action
[09:44]   r m : vwap band expanding in NF
[09:50]   Shai : holding 8504 the buyer will try to respond
[09:51]   Shai : But f it goes the 8500 pe writers f yesterday will be under pressure
[09:51]   Shai : and create that move to 8471
[09:53]   r m : meanwhile BN reached target1 of Hypo2
[09:53]   Shai : 80% rule also completes near 18170
[09:54]   r m : yes
[10:06]   Rahul G : shai if possible view on yesbk
[10:06]   r m : nf gettng buyers
[10:18]   Kathir : GM Shai RM and all fiiends
[10:19]   r m : Hi Kathir
[10:22]   Shai : Yes bank 681 supp
[10:22]   Shai : elow that free drop to 667 can come in 1-2 sessions
[10:23]   Shai : if 681 holds can bounce back to 691-693 where the seller may attempt to come again
[10:24]   Shai : Yes NF seeing some buyers but inability to cross vwap will put them under pressure
[10:24]   Shai : Hypo2 sl is near 8524 – vwap of yesterday
[10:26]   Kathir : @sharad DLF
[10:27]   Kathir : 5 down
[10:31]   r m : bnf also below FA now
[10:32]   Shai : the leader is different today
[10:32]   Shai : NF leading
[10:36]   Shai : 8500 pe – little unwinding seen : http://screencast.com/t/bhlDmsv0z
[10:36]   Shai : but that 8500 ce buildup is adventurous
[10:39]   Shai : 8473
[10:40]   Kathir : Hi assortz
[10:40]   Kathir : @shai 18k pe 85
[10:41]   Assortz : Hi Kathir Gm
[10:42]   Shai : 18049 in BNF is the same level
[10:42]   Shai : suggest booking intra shorts and waiting
[10:43]   Shai : a trip to 8493 is due
[10:43]   Shai : 18140 BNF
[10:45]   Shai : This move has volumes today
[10:45]   Shai : could be related to that P note issue which cropped up again last night
[10:53]   Shai : Technical picture is still supportive of a test of the previous bracket 8448- 8437
[10:54]   Shai : weakness comes only when we enter in that bracket again
[10:55]   Shai : if 18049 breaks then 17976
[10:55]   Anay : 8455 is last week’s POC rt?
[10:56]   Shai : yes 8452 F
[11:00]   Ravi V P : 8500ce writing OI:14+ Lacs
[11:01]   Shai : http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/value-of-p-note-holdings-at-six-and-a-half-year-high-114111800928_1.html
[11:03]   Shai : 8491 area is the place to reshort with sl abv FA point of 8505
[11:04]   Shai : abv 8505 this mn downtrend is over and we can see yesterday highs quickly
[11:04]   Shai : *mini
[11:05]   Ravi V P : option pain is 8450 and pcr at 8450 is 2.01
[11:07]   Shai : There’s no need to fear that P note issue. This is now a very secular bull market driven as much by retail particpation as FII
[11:12]   Anay : @Shai good dip on DLF for long entry
[11:13]   Anay : can we look for 150+ now before expiry?
[11:15]   Ravi V P : not updatinf
[11:15]   Ravi V P : chart not updating
[11:23]   Shai : re-entering short with sl of 8506 for 8470/ 8437
[11:23]   Shai : almost did- (10:43) Shai :a trip to 8493 is due
[11:24]   Shai : This one too- (10:43) Shai :18140 BNF
[11:24]   Ravi V P : Should we sell at 8480
[11:24]   Shai : sl is the same
[11:24]   Shai : can be a stop n reverse too
[11:25]   Shai : big ref for the rest of the day at 8505
[11:25]   Shai : It’s that time of the day when we will see tw time frame activity
[11:25]   Shai : and if 8505 is held by sellers till about 2/ 2.30 then we will close at lows
[11:40]   Sharad : Hi all
[11:40]   Sharad : market moved lot this morning
[11:43]   Sharad : Shai what are chances of 8600 Expiry?
[11:44]   Shai : Sharad depends on the second session now
[11:44]   Shai : Volumes have come at this open
[11:45]   Shai : Battle between buyers of 21/11 and today’s open sellers
[11:45]   Sharad : till 1 pm we are not going to anywhere i think
[11:45]   Sharad : going to go
[11:45]   Shai : true
[11:45]   Sharad : so basically relax till 1 pm
[11:53]   Shai : deltas are becoming positive
[11:53]   Shai : suggestive of aggressive buying of the lows
[11:53]   Shai : But price has to cross vwap for these guys to be safe
[11:54]   Shai : BNF has a 40 pointer move abv 18119 to 18160 sl of 15 points
[11:54]   Shai : only abv 18119
[12:08]   Sharad : Charts stopped
[12:14]   Shai : charts back up?
[12:14]   Sharad : yes
[12:16]   Anay : 11:12 Anay : @Shai good dip on DLF for long entry
[12:16]   Anay : 11:13 Anay : can we look for 150+ now before expiry?
[12:18]   Shai : Thanks for bringing that up again Anay- I completely overlooked that
[12:19]   Ravi V P : charts stopped
[12:19]   Ravi V P : charts stopped
[12:19]   Shai : DLF at supp but in a very tricky place
[12:20]   Shai : Now working?
[12:20]   Porus : yes
[12:20]   Shai : wait for it to show evidence of holding 141
[12:20]   Anay : ok
[12:20]   Ravi V P : charts stopped
[12:20]   Anay : ok
[12:21]   Ravi V P : hello
[12:21]   Shai : 145 was the supp to hold today has failed there and back to lows
[12:21]   r m : charts working Ravi
[12:21]   Shai : if selling persists down to 137.5
[12:21]   Shai : Ravi use the click to relaod on the top right
[12:25]   Janak : bn to vwap now shai 135/150?
[12:29]   Anay : ok
[12:30]   Shai : 113
[12:30]   Janak : rm 113 pe chai ho jaye? 🙂
[12:30]   Shai : Janak I have longs placed abv 120 for 160
[12:30]   Janak : ok shai – i will follow that too
[12:31]   Janak : delta is shooting up in both nf/bn
[12:31]   r m : @Janak, Chai jaroori hai, room temp 15 🙂
[12:32]   Janak : ileana ko chai le ke bheju? ;;
[12:33]   Janak : then room temp=15 / rm temp = 15000 ;
[12:33]   r m : @Janak, now my reply straight from “Dumb and dumber”, doosre cup ka bill kaun dega? 😀
[12:34]   Janak : simple man – buy bn here and book at 18090 – sab bill paid ;;
[12:34]   r m : 🙂
[12:34]   Janak : and after 120 – shai hei na?
[12:37]   Ravi V P : stopped
[12:41]   r m : @Ravi, working at my end
[12:41]   Ravi V P : now ok
[12:47]   Janak : slow updates on charts?
[12:47]   Sharad : stuck
[12:48]   Janak : rm mkt pe kehar dha rahe hei aaj
[12:50]   r m : @Janak, now charts stuck
[12:50]   Janak : yeah where is shai man?
[12:51]   Ravi V P : syopped
[12:51]   Ravi V P : stopped
[12:51]   Janak : back
[12:52]   Shai : there are some issues with the connctivity
[12:52]   Shai : Hoping that it will be all sorted by this evening
[12:52]   Janak : shai u no more offer comm. charts?
[12:55]   Janak : green
[12:58]   Sharad : 1 pm done price same @ 8480 … Now rocket to moon ..8600 tomorrow or day after ???
[13:00]   Shai : Bulls have to take it abv vwap and 8505 fr that to happen 🙂
[13:00]   Janak : shai u r forgetting that bulls have rm
[13:00]   Sharad : should definately happen Shai…
[13:00]   Janak : tumhare paas kya hei? ;
[13:01]   Shai : simple principle of a trend type day is Vwap for bias and short covering/ long liquidation happens around the vwap then
[13:01]   Shai : Yes Sharad a strng bull market gen does not give in to the first bit of negtive news
[13:02]   Sharad : Shai.. FII started buying from day one of this expiry why they will let it go on D day…
[13:02]   Shai : No this move is on the P notes
[13:02]   Janak : or precisely that iswhy they will book out sharad
[13:02]   Sharad : this are just rumors…
[13:02]   Shai : No actually
[13:02]   Sharad : and governmnet does remember 2007
[13:02]   Shai : SEBI notification was there yesterday
[13:03]   Shai : oh yes once in a while they bring the issue up but do nothing about it
[13:03]   Shai : a bigger fall would have brought Jaitley immediately to the TV studio 🙂
[13:03]   Sharad : ok but as i know that FII start their year and buying with Jan and they need December close at strongest..
[13:04]   Janak : 1st Jan’15 will sen bn at 20k
[13:04]   Janak : bn has done 2000 pts in Nov?
[13:04]   Sharad : what about December janak
[13:05]   Sharad : 20k not possible but 19k + possible
[13:05]   r m : @Janak, I have very short time frame, what about 15:30 today? 🙂
[13:06]   Janak : rm write this down: on 1st Jan’2014 – before 11 am – bn wud have hit 20k
[13:06]   Janak : 2015
[13:07]   r m : Thanks Janak
[13:07]   Janak : ek baar bn ne commitment kar diya fir wo shai ki bhi nahi sunegi 🙂
[13:07]   Janak : rm has bn done 2000 pts in Nov?
[13:09]   r m : 3rd NOV low 17029
[13:09]   Janak : ok so around 1300 pts
[13:09]   Janak : that sets up a bigger launch in dec
[13:11]   r m : @Janak, there is a guy willing to sell 19700CE DEC for 44.95, just grab it 🙂
[13:11]   Janak : no but the move will be like on 20th dec – bn will be strolling at 19k and in next 10 days – it will be 20500 🙂
[13:11]   r m : amazing, 19500CE DEC available for 39.50!!
[13:13]   r m : ok Janak, you have the whole horoscope of BN 🙂
[13:13]   r m : Dec expiry is on 24th
[13:14]   Janak : bn delta above 100!
[13:15]   r m : Sirjee, ek nazar Dec delta per bhee!
[13:15]   Janak : where is it?
[13:15]   r m : next to NOV
[13:15]   Janak : -99!
[13:16]   r m : evenly matched
[13:16]   r m : dec and nov playing ping pong 🙂
[13:16]   Janak : 18120 touch shd come at-least once?
[13:16]   Ravi V P : black bar is hiding bn bottom side in chart
[13:16]   Janak : that OF wave is at vwap now
[13:18]   r m : Shai rekha, vwap, PDL, OF wave all bunched up
[13:19]   Janak : what is shai rekha?
[13:19]   Janak : has Big B started trading on MP? ;
[13:21]   r m : 🙂
[13:21]   r m : Here Big B is Shai :
[13:22]   r m : the bold red line drawn at 18135
[13:22]   Janak : Big BN and Superbig Shai
[13:22]   r m : important ref level
[13:22]   Janak : yes all thru day – that line has been visited
[13:23]   Shai : Temp issue will go away – 13:16 Ravi V: black bar is hiding bn bottom side in chart
[13:23]   Ravi V P : 24.11.2014 10.45 atht 15135 was drawn in MOB
[13:35]   Shai : 8500 ce writing is large
[13:36]   Shai : and if we cross 8505 that assures us of that move to 8540
[13:36]   Shai : all the bull needs to do is take it beyond 8505 and the rest is easy
[13:37]   Shai : (09:51) Shai :But f it goes the 8500 pe writers f yesterday will be under pressure(09:51) Shai :and create that move to 8471
[13:37]   Shai : reverse of that 1
[13:37]   Ravi V P : 8500CE oi and change in oi is the Highest
[13:38]   Shai : Can dip into a 8550 ce is we trade abv 8490
[13:38]   Shai : dip as in buying in 2- 3 parts
[13:38]   Shai : can add abv 8506F
[13:38]   Shai : sl will be current da low if trading abv vwap
[13:40]   Ravi V P : ITC 377 to 371 in split seconds
[13:43]   Narendra : news on itc
[13:43]   Narendra : no loose cigarettes to be sold
[13:47]   Ravi V P : How he can control small shops in Rural araes?
[13:49]   r m : actually should be positive for ITC, during my smoking days I used to buy loose cigarettes to control the number of cigerettes smoked 🙂
[13:50]   Narendra : itc will come with pack of 5 cig
[13:50]   r m : lol
[13:51]   r m : what about a double pack – 2 cigerettes 🙂
[13:51]   Narendra : like cigars
[13:51]   Ravi V P : cost of packaging will kill them,if the launch
[13:52]   r m : cost of packaging will be paid by buyer 🙂
[13:52]   Narendra : 70 percent of volume comes with loose cig
[13:53]   Ravi V P : This is good news for ITC since it will increase sales through packets
[13:53]   r m : ITC in any case sells packets only
[13:53]   Narendra : cig contibutes 12 percent of total tobacco consumption
[13:54]   r m : NF moves towards 8437
[13:54]   Shai : 2 pm near and we are below 8505
[13:54]   Janak : dont think bn is interested in going down anywhere
[13:56]   Ravi V P : with max pain of 18000 and 18200 ce writing,bn may touch 18175 or SL of 18000
[13:57]   Ravi V P : 18076 and 18016 are Make or Break levels
[13:58]   Ravi V P : ITC pushed down nf
[14:00]   Porus : Shai, if 8437 breaks, what next?
[14:02]   Shai : 8370
[14:02]   Janak : bn in control of dip-buyers (OTF)?
[14:03]   Shai : Yes ITC pushing it down- BN still abv day low
[14:05]   Ravi V P : For Index balancing, ONGC is pushedup
[14:05]   Janak : buy bn for vwap shai?
[14:05]   Ravi V P : n RIL
[14:09]   Porus : Shai, India vix up to almost 14.
[14:12]   Janak : strong buyer at 18030-40 zone
[14:12]   Janak : 5th defence in last 2 hrs
[14:15]   Shai : 8461 res
[14:16]   Janak : 18090 revisit on?
[14:16]   Shai : abv 61 can go to 79 else down to 37 again
[14:16]   Shai : 18090 only if green shows up here
[14:17]   Shai : Highest tick volume of the day came at 8440
[14:19]   Sharad : 2235 lots traded
[14:20]   Sharad : & 3393 lots
[14:20]   Sharad : two tick
[14:21]   Ravi V P : Shai.. what is this pink and green line. Is it EMA line
[14:21]   Shai : passive orderflow managed with a MA for whipsaws
[14:22]   Shai : Bulls are in trouble below 8461 and even more trouble below 8437
[14:25]   Sharad : NF OI declined by 30 lacs today
[14:26]   Sharad : reduced
[14:27]   Sharad : 8437 low exact
[14:34]   Sharad : ES inching upwards
[14:36]   Porus : Shai DAX has moved beyond your target of 9800. What next?
[14:40]   Shai : even spx
[14:40]   Shai : Nothing now. we wait for some more time confirmation
[14:40]   Ravi V P : is it good time to buy itc shai?
[14:44]   Sharad : Ranbaxy started 623
[14:46]   Shai : ITC has broken 361/362 ST supp
[14:46]   Shai : can fall to 344
[14:47]   Shai : Buy around 344 with stops below 335 – can add up abv 362
[14:47]   Ravi V P : thanks
[14:49]   Shai : agree with RM- should mean more sales for ITC : (13:49) r m:actually should be positive for ITC, during my smoking days I used to buy loose cigarettes to control the number of cigerettes smoked 🙂
[14:50]   Shai : What ITC can do is reduce ciggs in the packet too
[14:50]   Ravi V P : if they increase what smokers will do?
[14:51]   Shai : No I meant pack a packet of 3-4 . The govt wants it packaged that’s all
[14:52]   Shai : 8461 ref line in NF coming up again
[14:52]   Shai : a cross would mean a close at vwap
[14:52]   Shai : else day lows
[14:52]   Sharad : Shai look ES
[14:54]   Janak : pl give 18090 sir
[14:54]   Sharad : janak in 2 minutes
[14:55]   Janak : only if shai says yes
[14:55]   Sharad : Shai bolo bolo kuch to bolo
[14:56]   Shai : 🙂
[14:59]   Shai : There is this gas energy conference going On
[14:59]   Shai : and some 1 was mentioning that RIL will move up in the afternoon today
[15:00]   Shai : well early in the morning that wa shis view
[15:00]   Ravi V P : me
[15:00]   Shai : ok
[15:01]   Shai : No was one of my contacts not from here
[15:01]   Sharad : ES 2070
[15:01]   Sharad : Shai i see expiry 8600+
[15:02]   Anay : reason?
[15:02]   Sharad : FII started buying from 1st day and not sold at all for all November
[15:02]   Anay : ok
[15:03]   Sharad : 8650 technical target
[15:03]   Shai : Sharad more likely we ht the weekly low today
[15:04]   Shai : but upside may be capped at 8500- 8520
[15:04]   Sharad : ES moving for us to accomodate i think
[15:05]   Shai : it’s that 8425 supp in spot
[15:05]   Shai : holding again
[15:05]   Shai : lots of blue at the lows in NF
[15:05]   Sharad : we already corrected from rally of 8371
[15:06]   Sharad : so move higher is pending now
[15:06]   Shai : 8480 on way
[15:07]   Shai : push abv 8480 is 8505
[15:07]   Shai : push abv 8483**
[15:08]   Sharad : even close above 8480 is also ok
[15:08]   Sharad : as break down level was 8480 at 1 pm
[15:09]   Shai : looking good passive + agressive
[15:09]   Shai : could be turn of the 8500 ce writers to face the heat tom
[15:19]   Shai : a small 8500 ce trade for tom
[15:19]   Shai : price is at 16
[15:20]   Shai : these shorts are holding at 8483- 8495 spot level
[15:20]   Shai : abv that short covering run
[15:20]   Shai : NF maintain same at 8483 and the 8505 noted earlier
[15:20]   Shai : upsdie can be to 8540
[15:23]   Shai : 8437 held as well as 8461 now
[15:25]   Shai : 8500 ce dropped around 5 L
[15:26]   Shai : Vols have come in Nov F today
[15:27]   Shai : combined nov+dec is upwards of 23L
[15:30]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂
[15:30]   Sharad : Bye all
[15:30]   Porus : bye
[15:30]   Shai : Bye all
[15:30]   Shai : Have a nice eve
[15:32]   Anay : bye all