OrderFlow charts and Notes 26/02

[08:52]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[08:52]   r m : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-26th-feb/
[08:52]   r m : http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-2502/
[08:52]   r m : Nifty FEB Futures Key Reference Area (KRA) 8805 Hypo1 above 8815➜8845➜8876 SL 8801 Hypo2 below 8805➜8760➜8735 SL 8814
[08:52]   r m : Banknifty FEB Futures KRA 18723 Hypo1 above 18840➜18940➜19035 SL 18775 Hypo2 below 18715➜18610➜18425 SL 18839
[08:54]   Porus : GM RM and all
[08:54]   r m : Hi Porus
[08:58]   Shai : GM all
[09:06]   r m : Rail budget at 12:00 Hrs http://budgetlive.nic.in/railbudget/
[09:11]   Sharad : GM all
[09:17]   Sharad : BNF hypo 2 activated.
[09:18]   Shai : BNF below FA point
[09:19]   Shai : NF has big buyers at 8760 and 8726 on Tues
[09:19]   Amit J : shai your view on wockardth for short
[09:19]   Shai : auction is between the sellers of Mon at 8840 and buyers at 8730/60
[09:23]   Shai : wockpharma using 1626 as sl you may get 1540
[09:23]   Amit J : thanks
[09:23]   Shai : but bigger fall only if 1540 breaks then 1452 possible
[09:24]   Shai : BNF is a drive down from FA
[09:25]   Shai : NF huge support at 8726 but below that 8665 can come
[09:26]   r m : updating stock levels in the above file
[09:28]   Tejpreet : GM All.
[09:32]   Kris : GM All:)
[09:33]   Kris : 8800PE booked most at 67 in the morning – and – rest trailing at 55 – safe trade.
[09:34]   Shai : Buyers coming in NF
[09:34]   Shai : using 8725 as sl can play for 8805 visist
[09:34]   r m : Hi Kris 🙂
[09:37]   Amit J : wock hammered
[09:38]   Shai : anything big?
[09:38]   Shai : It’s run up very well
[09:39]   Amit J : yes same fda news
[09:40]   Vishal : thanks amit and shai for wock
[09:40]   Vishal : traded on short side for quick 20 bugs
[09:40]   Shai : ok
[09:40]   Shai : 🙂 Vishal
[09:40]   Amit J : yesterday indianivesh came with a report on fda coming. either management in sebi case or indianivesh.
[09:42]   Shai : ok
[09:45]   Amit J : booked at 40
[09:49]   Shai : below 1524 second round can start with sl just abv 1542
[09:49]   Shai : but safe to book here once
[09:50]   Shai : buyers buying the dips in NF
[09:51]   Shai : BNF below FA point but not seeing impulsive selling yet
[10:00]   Amit J : icici any view for long?
[10:02]   RK : Gm all
[10:07]   Shai : icici 319.5 supp strength abv 327 only
[10:09]   Amit J : wock back great level shai
[10:10]   Shai : 🙂
[10:11]   Shai : Open drive down also- next trigger is IB low for more selling
[10:29]   Shai : BNF not gettiing new selling
[10:30]   Shai : an alternate long trade in BNF is t be long above 18720 for 100 point or 18820 with sl of vwap 18675
[10:30]   Shai : then the seller should reapper at 18820
[10:31]   Shai : NF auction is 8730 buyer and 8840 seller
[10:31]   Shai : choice is open for a close in between near 8790/8800 or towards the seller at 8840 or near the buyer at 8740 here
[10:32]   Shai : can swing anywhere
[10:35]   Shai : BNF and NF now in FA setups
[10:37]   Shai : cross of 8755 in NF is another long trade for 8780 sl of 8735
[11:11]   r m : added current price in stockslevels sheet on Amit’s suggestion, prices stolen from googlefinance 🙂
[11:11]   Shai : nice 🙂
[11:12]   r m : Thanks!
[11:12]   Shai : NF doing exactly what it did at 8736-40 with the sellers to the buyers today
[11:47]   Kris : back!
[11:47]   Kris : 8800PE exited between 60-70 all – and bought 8750CE at 29.
[11:47]   Kris : hoping for 8840 expiry 🙂
[11:49]   Kris : @Shai – possible?
[11:50]   Shai : all 3 options open
[11:50]   Shai : (10:31) Shai :choice is open for a close in between near 8790/8800 or towards the seller at 8840 or near the buyer at 8740 here
[11:51]   Shai : I’m sounding like Ravi Shastri ? 🙂
[11:57]   Kris : You have to add only one more sentence – “Whatever happens, Ultimately Market is the winner” 🙂
[11:58]   Shai : 🙂
[11:58]   Shai : That’s a good 1
[11:58]   r m : 🙂
[11:58]   RK : Kris 🙂
[12:09]   Murtaza Attari : Good Afternoon everyone. Thanks Shai bhai for the invite.
[12:10]   Shai : Welcome Murtaza.
[12:10]   RK : He starts speaking Rail minister and we are breaking low 🙂
[12:11]   Shai : we have mautaza as a guest for the exipry session today
[12:11]   Rav : yesterday lockless house and today keyless house. expiry day is for OI holders settlement and not for new entries
[12:11]   Shai : true
[12:12]   Shai : that buyer is still there at 8726
[12:12]   Kris : HI MA – welcome 🙂
[12:12]   Shai : 8755 needs to cross
[12:13]   Kris : @Shai – we know who he is 🙂
[12:13]   Murtaza Attari : Hi Kris.
[12:13]   Kris : *Buyer at 8726:)
[12:13]   Murtaza Attari : ha ha ….. 😀
[12:15]   Shai : Rail Min has started well
[12:16]   r m : Hi Murtaza bhai 🙂
[12:16]   Shai : Buyers
[12:16]   Murtaza Attari : Hello
[12:17]   Vinay : hi shai, power should be a big theme this budget
[12:17]   Vinay : what do you think of NTpc
[12:17]   Kris : celebrated MA entry with 8700CE from 47 to 63 🙂
[12:17]   Shai : Vinay Bullish on Ntpc
[12:17]   Shai : only volumes missing
[12:18]   Vinay : i agree
[12:18]   Shai : hopefully they come in next 2 days
[12:18]   Vinay : what would be the SL for longs
[12:18]   Shai : 2 mins will update chart
[12:19]   Amit J : because of dividend dividend, bullers would come in ntpc. however dont buy in future
[12:19]   Amit J : discount will rise once record date is announced
[12:20]   Amit J : for ntpc
[12:21]   Shai : immedite sl is below 143
[12:21]   Vinay : ok
[12:21]   Vinay : thanks
[12:21]   Shai : however needs strong volumes abv 150- 152 to break higher
[12:24]   Shai : 18723 on watch for 100 points upside
[12:24]   Shai : 18828 should come with vwap as sl
[12:27]   Rahul N : @shai ,can we buy 8800 ce here?
[12:32]   Amit J : shai we are not crossing PDL in both\, what is the possibility of day low close
[12:32]   Shai : better buy abv 8756
[12:32]   Rahul N : ok
[12:33]   Shai : Amit these buyers will hold till price probes below 8720 F where long liquidation can set in
[12:34]   Amit J : thanks
[12:34]   Kathir : Hi All 🙂
[12:35]   RK : Hi Kathir
[12:35]   RK : RM, Kathir appears only on expiry days
[12:36]   Kathir : and escapes after expiry day 🙂
[12:37]   Kathir : @RK other days are boring for me
[12:37]   r m : Hi Kathir 🙂
[12:37]   Kathir : hi ji
[12:37]   r m : What is today’s lottery? 🙂
[12:37]   Kathir : 8800 ce or 8700 pe ?
[12:38]   RK : Kathir everybody keeps looking these two boundaries only..
[12:38]   r m : 25 bucks total, costly ticket 😀
[12:38]   RK : what about out of range of these two nos 🙂
[12:38]   Kathir : @RM lottery buys only below 2 rs
[12:38]   r m : yes
[12:39]   r m : only cheap tickets for me
[12:39]   Murtaza Attari : Expiry lottery wait till 1.15 imo, if nothing happens, then 2.30
[12:39]   r m : Thanks Murtaza
[12:39]   Kathir : ok
[12:39]   Murtaza Attari : buy now – and u lost 50% of prm if nothing happens till 1.15 or 2.30
[12:39]   Kathir : @rm saturday working?
[12:40]   Sharad : Hi all
[12:40]   Kathir : yeah after 2.30 is good
[12:40]   Sharad : Nothing major
[12:40]   Sharad : Kathir after long time
[12:40]   Amit J : lottery try and find in banknifty
[12:41]   Kathir : yes amith bnf will give big reward sometimes
[12:41]   r m : @Kathir, yes, Saturday working though I am off 🙂
[12:42]   r m : oops
[12:42]   r m : I am not sure about vtrender
[12:42]   Sharad : how about 18500 put @ 24
[12:42]   Kathir : @RM ok
[12:42]   Amit J : i agree on bn puts because PDL is held
[12:43]   Sharad : I just bot
[12:43]   Sharad : and since morning both selling only
[12:43]   Amit J : keep titagarh as benchmark for nifty move today
[12:44]   Sharad : 8711 low
[12:44]   Shai : stops gone below 8725
[12:45]   Sharad : yes Shai stop clearance caper
[12:45]   RK : seems no interest at lows from buyers
[12:45]   Sharad : BNF still holding 18628
[12:46]   Tejpreet : Railway budget usual crap no Modi magic till now.
[12:46]   Sharad : gone bnf new low
[12:47]   Kathir : trgt below 7720 is 7665?
[12:47]   RK : Yes any big measure if anything should have been announced by now
[12:48]   Rav : bought 8700ce @ 33
[12:48]   Kris : thanks Rav – same trade!
[12:49]   Rav : spot based entry
[12:49]   Shai : Kathir 77?
[12:49]   Tejpreet : brought bn march 18775
[12:49]   Tejpreet : mar 9000 call 102.
[12:49]   Shai : It is 8665 below 8730
[12:52]   Shai : speech should end 1.15 / 1.30?
[12:54]   Amit J : that is not fixed
[12:54]   Shai : Markets have an expiry to think of 🙂
[12:54]   RK : 🙂
[12:55]   Shai : NF gets weaker if 8730/ 35 is not crossed now
[12:55]   Shai : can lead to long liquidation
[12:56]   Rav : nf fresh sbu and bnf LU
[12:59]   Kathir : @shai it was 8665 actually 🙂
[12:59]   Shai : yes 🙂
[13:04]   Murtaza Attari : Sab SL kha ke ab upar chali
[13:05]   r m : ab ooper ka SL khana hai na 🙂
[13:05]   Shai : Now longs will not come back tll vwap crosses
[13:07]   Shai : all rail stocks down
[13:14]   Shai : buyers
[13:14]   Kris : booked a few at 47
[13:14]   Kris : (12:48) Kris :thanks Rav – same trade!
[13:16]   Shai : Speech done
[13:16]   Shai : Nobody talking aout a key takeaway
[13:17]   Amit J : nothing. mostly deficit increased
[13:17]   Murtaza Attari : seems nothing in the rail budget – same old drab budget. Not seen but nothing on twitter tl to be excited about
[13:17]   Amit J : as planned expenditure rised significantly
[13:18]   Rav : 8713-8739 is SC
[13:19]   Kathir : @Rav again back to that levels ? sellers on top near vwap
[13:20]   Kris : hmm… what were given away at 47 taken back at 30
[13:20]   Kris : let us see!
[13:20]   Kathir : nice game 🙂
[13:22]   Rav : watchong 8800ce time decay and value erosion .now 3. let it becomes 0.5
[13:23]   Kathir : @rav buy that now?
[13:23]   r m : at .5
[13:23]   Rav : no
[13:24]   Rav : once it becomes 0.5-1, SC may set in. Hence 8700 ce is good with PCR of 2.46 and max pain at 8800
[13:25]   Shai : 8735 spot cross needed on positional close
[13:25]   Kathir : @rav ok thanks please let us know if it goes to o.5-1
[13:26]   Shai : 18740 was the earlier low in BNF this week – that the min for the bull
[13:29]   Shai : 2 hours to expiry
[13:29]   Kathir : @shai any lottery from here nf bnf?
[13:34]   Shai : I’m tempted to go with 18700 ce at around 35 as contra trade
[13:38]   Tejpreet : Brought NF at 8695 sl 30 points.
[13:38]   Shai : it’s 20 bucks now 🙂
[13:38]   Rav : 8900ce at 1
[13:38]   Tejpreet : brought 8700 call at 20 no sl
[13:43]   Murtaza Attari : 14.50 8700CE bot
[13:43]   Amit J : 8660 shai
[13:44]   Shai : clearly no happiness with the budget?
[13:45]   Sharad : 18500 put 14 to 40 sold 50%
[13:45]   Sharad : 24 to 40
[13:45]   Shai : Yes Amit
[13:45]   Amit J : freight rate hike was a negative surprised not told in speech
[13:45]   Shai : can drop to 8585 tom if no recovery comes here
[13:48]   Rav : buy 8700ce at 13 with sl of 9.5
[13:48]   RK : 8720-8750 band will become a rock now to climb up
[13:57]   Shai : true
[13:58]   Shai : expiry hour – vwap has not been crossed since the speech beagn
[13:58]   Shai : began*
[13:59]   Rav : TSL 13
[14:08]   Rav : now became open house.
[14:08]   r m : 🙂
[14:09]   Rav : booked at 23*2000:20000
[14:09]   r m : Good one Rav!
[14:12]   Murtaza Attari : 8712F sustain and move up, next could be 8740-ish again.
[14:14]   Kathir : @rav wonderfull congrats
[14:14]   Rav : max pain shifted from 8800 to 8700 unfortunately
[14:15]   Kathir : means expct downside from here
[14:15]   Rav : 18700 for bn
[14:16]   Rav : This is the point where expiry is likely since we just have 1 more hour only
[14:17]   Rav : exactly or just below
[14:17]   Kathir : oh ok
[14:19]   Rav : except 8700, all ce above that became zero and all pe below 8700 became zero
[14:20]   r m : Kapil Sibal effect 🙂
[14:20]   Murtaza Attari : ha ha ….
[14:21]   Rahul N : @SHAI i have union bank ,syndicate and bankindia long..should i rollover or not ?
[14:22]   Shai : A litlle more buying and we can see 8735 40 once
[14:22]   Shai : longs or shorts Rahul?
[14:22]   Rahul N : unfortunately long lol
[14:23]   Rav : Max pain effect…http://www.screencast.com/users/Ravicbe/folders/Jing/media/15883f0d-2296-449e-8676-f6e0a115bdb9
[14:24]   Shai : I’ll give you cash levels since Mar Future volumes are not firm yet
[14:24]   Rav : major shorts got created in banking space so far
[14:24]   Rahul N : cool
[14:24]   Murtaza Attari : thoda aur – push karo Nifty ko upar ….
[14:25]   Shai : union bank holding 162.7 can bounce to 173.7
[14:25]   Shai : this week
[14:25]   Murtaza Attari : 8700CE almost dbt from 14 to 27
[14:26]   Shai : syndibank is also rotational but prefer it to close abv 116.8 cash for strength
[14:26]   Rav : because it has become sudden;y from ATM to ITM
[14:27]   Shai : bankindia may drop to 217 if stays below 225
[14:27]   Shai : I think except bankindia you can roll the other 2 or manage bankindia with day low as sl in cash
[14:27]   Tejpreet : booked 8700 call at 32 from 20
[14:28]   Murtaza Attari : Great Tejpreet
[14:28]   Rav : great tej
[14:28]   Shai : My call came back to 35
[14:28]   r m : wonderful Tejpreet!
[14:28]   Rav : must have waited for that 8800ce to become 0.5 and entered at 13
[14:28]   Kathir : nice trade
[14:29]   Tejpreet : Thanks guys …. still holding nf drom 8695
[14:29]   Murtaza Attari : me too exited at 30.
[14:29]   Tejpreet : True Rav.
[14:29]   Shai : one hour still
[14:29]   Tejpreet : nifty SL moved from 30 points to 8700
[14:30]   Rav : that will make us to take more lots and qucik exit is what a i alluding here,tej
[14:30]   Rav : am i
[14:30]   Rahul N : thanks shai
[14:31]   Tejpreet : Rav that is what i want to learn quick exit and more lots 🙂
[14:31]   Shai : immedaite weakness is out now above 8702/ 18620
[14:32]   Shai : vwap is a mission for longs
[14:32]   Rav : from 8672 last 45 min SC going on
[14:33]   Kathir : @shai views on close from here
[14:33]   Shai : for the bull- (13:25) Shai :8735 spot cross needed on positional close
[14:35]   Rav : 89 lac OI holders fight since 73% rollover was already made
[14:37]   Kathir : ok
[14:37]   Shai : Trade is near vwap of the setllement so not expecting any major moves in the last hour
[14:37]   Shai : 20 here and tthere
[14:38]   Tejpreet : so better to boo out now 8725
[14:38]   Tejpreet : book
[14:38]   Rav : 8739 is T
[14:39]   Tejpreet : booked now at 8733
[14:40]   Tejpreet : Look at ntpc moving 150 march call from 2.8 to 4.5 now.
[14:40]   Rav : 18711 for bnf
[14:40]   Shai : little more from here 8752 maybe
[14:42]   Shai : On Saturday all brokers are charging full margins on futures
[14:43]   Shai : maybe to curb the volatility
[14:43]   Rav : got mail.that will curtail volume and speculation
[14:43]   Tejpreet : Plus no bracket order on zerodha 🙁
[14:43]   Shai : yes
[14:50]   Kathir : @rav any change in max pain
[14:51]   Rav : same 8700
[14:52]   Rav : and Support at 8500
[14:52]   Shai : expiry here 8700- 8720
[14:53]   Rav : Mar 9000ce acts major Resistence
[14:56]   Kathir : ok rav thanks
[14:59]   Amit J : short nifty for vwap
[15:00]   Amit J : ntpc lao
[15:00]   Murtaza Attari : NTPC breaks 152.70 on cash – vols dunno
[15:01]   Amit J : very good vol
[15:01]   Shai : increasing
[15:01]   Rav : 8700ce is also under attack by writers
[15:01]   Amit J : big dividend is story
[15:01]   Shai : need more
[15:02]   Shai : ok
[15:02]   Shai : 153.9 second price obj
[15:04]   Shai : day low closing?
[15:04]   Tejpreet : Booked 2 lot ntpc 150 call at 5 still holding 2 lots.
[15:05]   Tejpreet : Thanks for the lvls.
[15:06]   Shai : congrats Tej
[15:06]   Amit J : out of banknifty put, jackpot
[15:06]   Shai : Actaully Amit was mentioning NTPC from 144 levels here
[15:07]   Tejpreet : yes..thanks Amit for pointing it out.
[15:08]   Shai : BN every trip to 18700 has been sold today
[15:08]   Rav : ITM call must be bookedor else huge STT will be leveied by exchange
[15:08]   Vishal : shai asian paints below 792 wat levels to watch
[15:09]   Shai : 779
[15:09]   Shai : sl of 799.5- 801
[15:10]   Shai : Buyer territory of second week Asian
[15:10]   Shai : careful
[15:12]   Shai : starting Mar at 48 prem
[15:12]   Shai : lots of sellers in March
[15:12]   Shai : at these lows
[15:14]   Amit J : welcome tejpreet
[15:15]   Amit J : just repeating, positional dont long in future in ntpc
[15:16]   Tejpreet : no future only 150 call.
[15:17]   Shai : vwap sits at 8754 for Feb settlemnt on sot
[15:17]   Shai : spot*
[15:17]   Shai : No upsides till 8754 is tsaken out
[15:17]   Shai : 8473 is the other vwap of Jan
[15:18]   RK : Asian 840 supply worked..closed shorts
[15:18]   Shai : Price below 8754 closing will keep dropping till it touches 8473 spot
[15:19]   Shai : Congrats RK
[15:19]   RK : Thanks Shai
[15:19]   Kathir : RK congrats
[15:20]   Murtaza Attari : Shai bhai – means 8750 is a nice short area and 8470 a long.
[15:20]   Murtaza Attari : actually never got this VWap into my head ever.
[15:20]   Shai : Yes it’s that bracket till one gives
[15:20]   Shai : way…
[15:21]   Shai : 8664 is the major support for spot below 8754
[15:21]   r m : @RK, well done sirjee, Congrats!
[15:22]   Shai : safe to say that we should get a bounce to 8750 levels but have to see what happens around 8750 cash
[15:22]   Shai : with sl of 8664 cash for tm
[15:22]   RK : KAthir,RM settled accounts only with Asian and Ultra tech..still have some unfinished business with Relcap,HUL,Tata motors etc 🙂
[15:25]   r m : @RK, have your sights set on 8470!
[15:25]   Shai : MA vwap is volume weighted price- most of the trade transactions happened at 8750 through Feb
[15:25]   Shai : so fair to say that it becomes a ref area for next series
[15:25]   Kathir : RK ok
[15:25]   Shai : Long abv vwap and short below
[15:25]   Shai : same as intra day chart
[15:25]   Murtaza Attari : Ok – ATP sort of
[15:25]   Kathir : @shai buy PE march bnf or nf now?
[15:26]   Shai : yes ATP but based on volumes
[15:26]   RK : RM, no target due to budget..only SLs 🙂
[15:27]   Shai : like you buy 100 RIL at 1000 and I buy 50 RIL at 900 the atp is 950 but vwap will be closer to 970
[15:29]   Shai : the big traders are settling now
[15:29]   Shai : 2 algos
[15:30]   Shai : It’s amazing how price is kept super steady for them in last 15 mins every expiry
[15:30]   Shai : 8683 close
[15:30]   Shai : Bye all. Have a nice evening
[15:30]   Shai : catch up tom
[15:30]   RK : thanks and bye all
[15:30]   Tejpreet : Bye All.
[15:30]   Porus : Bye all
[15:31]   r m : Thanks and bye, have a great evening 🙂
[15:31]   Murtaza Attari : Bye All
[15:40]   Amit J : bye