OrderFlow charts and Notes 26/09/14

[08:50]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[08:51]   Porus : gm
[09:05]   Porus : @shai,rm hypo1 for today is a shorting trade? If price touches 8020 and falls then sell? T=7900, SL=7982
[09:07]   r m : @Porus, for short @8020, stop should be around 8034, pullback high around 11:30 yesterday I think, let us wait for Shai’s view
[09:08]   r m : however this view considers response from seller at 8020, guess one need to watch OF at 8020
[09:08]   Porus : yes
[09:08]   Manik : gm rm
[09:08]   r m : pre-open suggests gap down in both
[09:08]   r m : Hi Manik
[09:12]   Shai : Gm all
[09:12]   Porus : GM
[09:12]   Shai : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-260914/
[09:13]   Shai : http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-250914/
[09:16]   r m : CNX IT booming agains, USDINR impact?
[09:16]   r m : Charts not working?
[09:19]   Shai : now?
[09:19]   r m : working now
[09:20]   r m : with a lag though
[09:22]   r m : frozen again
[09:22]   Shai : faulty connection today
[09:22]   r m : ok
[09:22]   Shai : trying to get it sorted
[09:23]   r m : Thanks
[09:25]   Sumit : gm everyone
[09:31]   r m : looks like OAIR in NF
[09:33]   Porus : Pls expand that.
[09:35]   r m : Open auction inside range
[09:38]   Sumit : charts gone?
[09:39]   r m : yes
[09:39]   r m : Shai facing connectivity issue
[09:40]   Sumit : ok
[09:47]   Sumit : Shai, where is red-blue larger OF in nf at this time?
[09:48]   Shai : test
[09:48]   Shai : charts back?
[09:48]   Shriraj : ys
[09:48]   r m : yes, thanks
[09:48]   Shai : Sumit both NF and BNF are red
[09:49]   r m : BNF in vaue
[09:49]   Sumit : yes but where is the line at this time. somewhere up in chart if you can please check
[09:50]   Shai : bnf bnear 15860
[09:50]   Shai : nf near 8060
[09:50]   Sumit : bnf line is 15340 approx.
[09:51]   Sumit : it should appear in nf soon
[09:51]   Shai : I have to correct that one- data is not in fully
[09:51]   r m : that 8100CE is climbing now
[09:52]   Sumit : thanks Shai
[09:52]   Shai : OrderFlow is positive today
[09:52]   Shai : No new shorts creatyed this morning
[09:52]   Shai : hypo 1 in NF
[09:54]   Shai : NF open is an open rejection reverse – running into supply near 8020
[09:54]   r m : ok
[09:56]   Porus : @shai, was there a trade there?
[09:56]   Porus : for us?
[09:57]   Shai : sellers are coming near 8010-20
[09:57]   Shai : Happened too fast Porus
[09:58]   Shai : can sell near 8004 with sl of 8022 for 7980
[09:58]   Shai : 50% qty trade
[09:58]   Shai : Higher Time frame is visible in tghe market and especially after expiry they are active
[09:59]   Sumit : higher time frame should take it up or??
[09:59]   Porus : @shai, do they look like selers or buyers?
[10:00]   Shai : Sumit they have been buyers so far
[10:00]   Sumit : ok thanks
[10:00]   Shai : Porus- pink would mean intra sellers
[10:04]   Shai : looks like a pre decided 7950- 8020 range
[10:05]   Shai : 90% of the time in an ORR the day low is not violated
[10:05]   Porus : ORR?
[10:05]   Sumit : open rejection reverse
[10:06]   Porus : 8020 will be revisited?
[10:06]   Shai : possible
[10:07]   Shai : If you see the FP chart around 7960- 68 rane are the buyers who pushed it up
[10:08]   Porus : yes
[10:13]   Porus : @shai, what is the thick blue horizontal line on the chart?
[10:14]   r m : developing poc, highest volume of the day traded here
[10:14]   Shai : http://vtrender.com/trading-room-charts-explained-3/
[10:33]   Shai : Nf back to test the buyers
[10:36]   Porus : buyers have come in again?
[10:37]   Shai : yes
[10:38]   Shai : Buy abv 7978 for 8004 with sl below 7961
[10:45]   Shai : For spot traders taking an overnight position a cklose abv 7925-30 will give nifty spot at 8006- 8018 amd a possible 8040 spot
[10:48]   Shai : There is a bounce pending in BN spot even from current levels but more importantly the immediate trend will be clear depending on the reaction at 15600- 15700 spot
[10:49]   Shai : In my view the low for the week was done yesterday at 15350 F and aggressive longs are in order as ;long as that low holds
[10:49]   Shai : ” The Objective of the imbalance was at 15385 and got achieved in today’s session in OCTF . We look to see if the selling abates at these levels tomorrow in line with a higher bounce to meet more sellers.”
[10:51]   Shai : we went below 385 at the open but have held that level since
[10:52]   Shai : the next green backed with an OF which goes plus could be our cue to dig into some 16000 ce oct
[10:52]   Shai : 129- 130 now
[10:53]   Shai : When we aree looking for a bounce from an extended move- the first thing that should confirm is price staying above vwap
[10:54]   Shai : Next would be price above VAL
[10:54]   Shai : and Finally an extension above IBH which will tell us that buyers are driving the market again
[10:54]   Shai : Opp of all that means seller still driving
[11:03]   r m : charts frozen again?
[11:04]   Porus : @shai, can one go long bnf intraday on basis of 15350 floor?
[11:07]   Porus : 15385
[11:07]   Manik : @rm plans ahead of long holiday?
[11:08]   r m : @Manik, I trade only intraday
[11:09]   r m : Guess Shai may have plans on writing options
[11:10]   Manik : 😉
[11:10]   Manik : not trading plans , holiday
[11:10]   r m : lol
[11:11]   r m : I am firmly entrenched in Dehradun, maybe some old friends will drop in from Delhi
[11:11]   Manik : good one
[11:15]   r m : bnf got support at 420 🙂
[11:16]   Shai : yes that wa sthe view given- (11:04) Porus :@shai, can one go long bnf intraday on basis of 15350 floor?
[11:17]   Shai : This post will tell you we close higher today – http://vtrender.com/desi-mo-mcclellans-oscillator-for-nse-25th-sep-2014/
[11:23]   Shai : Delta marginally positive in NF and still not very good in BNF
[11:23]   Shai : what it tells us is that there are no new sellers but sellers from yesterday and day before have not covered yet
[11:23]   Shai : charts fine now?
[11:24]   r m : there is a lag at times
[11:24]   Shai : mostly in BNF?
[11:25]   r m : yes, have not monitored NF, can’t see both unless it is full screen which makes fonts too small 🙂
[11:27]   Shai : In full screen mode?
[11:28]   r m : yes
[11:28]   Shai : When the arrows of ‘fit to screen’ point inwards and you press full screen next- you get a larger view
[11:29]   r m : yes, even then prices are not visible, guess one needs a large screen for that
[11:30]   r m : or better eyesight 😀
[11:32]   Shai : 20 inch is ideal but 15 would get the job done
[11:32]   r m : ok
[11:45]   Porus : @shai, for a bnf long what sould be the sl?
[11:47]   Shai : Buy abv vwap 15455 now with 15412 as sl
[11:48]   Porus : ok
[11:48]   Shai : tgt 15510/ 15620
[11:49]   Amit J : shai just trying to understand failed auction. if monday say we cross 8100. than the current low of 7941 can be a failed auction which need to be visited in 5 working day.
[11:49]   Amit J : am i correct
[11:50]   Shai : yes correct -e xcept that 7941 is not an FA
[11:51]   Amit J : than how do you see failure
[11:51]   Shai : if we had gone below 7940 by a few points and returned back inside within 30 mins then it would qulaify as an FA
[11:51]   Amit J : ok thanks.
[11:51]   Shai : condition 2 : it should hit the other extreme also before close after coming back inside
[11:52]   Shai : that would confirm failure downside as it was successful to go up
[11:52]   Shai : see 7955 last series – classic example
[11:53]   Porus : But downside it has to fail at VAL not DL, right?
[11:53]   Amit J : ok but condition is that IR should be broken by say 5-6 pts and should remain below that for 15-20 mins
[11:53]   Amit J : am i right now
[11:53]   r m : max 30 minutes, single print definition
[11:54]   Shai : can be broken by any number of points but has to come back inside IR within 30 minutes and go the other side of IR
[11:54]   Amit J : we had a single print below IRL today at 11.35
[11:54]   Shai : http://vtrender.com/of-failed-auctions-and-revisits-4/
[11:55]   r m : it was jus 2 points i think
[11:55]   Shai : that can be just some trades getting ticked
[11:55]   Shai : we are looking for a probe below which fails
[11:56]   Amit J : yes. ok
[11:57]   Shai : charts working?
[11:57]   Manik : no
[12:03]   Shai : Please bear with us for some time
[12:03]   Shai : we are fixing the issue
[12:03]   r m : sure, no issues 🙂
[12:03]   Manik : sure shai
[12:10]   r m : Angel’s rollover report – http://tinyurl.com/ml4geyc
[12:46]   Shai : charts up?
[12:46]   Chiranthan : yes
[12:46]   Manik : s
[12:46]   Shai : Imbalance tgt of the move was 7900
[12:47]   Chiranthan : Any Opportunity in NF now?
[12:47]   Shai : agressive long withb7895 as sl
[12:47]   Shai : tgt 7940/ 7980
[12:48]   Shai : agressive longs are counter trend and hence not on max qty
[12:48]   Shai : will get the FP charts up in a bit
[12:49]   Shai : Getting tick data redone on those charts as we have been hit with frequent dsruptions today
[13:00]   Shai : ok- all well now
[13:01]   Shai : “If we move above 7982 at Open then NF will go to 8020 where the seller should respond again. The imbalance target of the Move is at 7900 Oct F below 8020”- played out fully
[13:02]   Shai : BNF below 15350/ 385 is a source of worry
[13:02]   Shai : though there is no fresh eveidence of new selling below 15350
[13:05]   Shai : Vix 13.97- tgt was 14 by Monday 🙂
[13:06]   Shai : That dip in NF and BNF was used to cover shorts
[13:06]   r m : 14.83 is the high today
[13:07]   r m : bn gets sellers at vwap at first attempt
[13:14]   Shai : Nf buyers will book part here at vwap and trail at 7935
[13:16]   r m : bn on adrenaline above val!
[13:19]   Shai : 7968 stuck buyers
[13:19]   Shai : hope they don’t liquidate
[13:20]   Shai : BNf will breathe easy above 15510
[13:22]   Shai : Net orderflow is positive for 1st time after 3 days
[13:22]   Shai : thsi still holds- (10:45) Shai :For spot traders taking an overnight position a cklose abv 7925-30 will give nifty spot at 8006- 8018 amd a possible 8040 spot
[13:25]   Shai : (12:47) Shai :agressive long with7895 as sl. (12:47) Shai :tgt 7940/ 7980
[13:25]   Shai : 7962 tsl tgt 8004 abv 7980
[13:27]   Mandar : Shai. where does one get that “whip”:-)?
[13:28]   Shai : which whip?
[13:28]   r m : one which you use to drive the markets 😀
[13:28]   Shai : http://vtrender.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/NF_vol_at_price_11.png
[13:28]   Mandar : haha…
[13:28]   Shai : Take 10 mins in the evening to look at these charts
[13:29]   Shai : 8020 was the big seller and 7980 was VAL
[13:29]   Shai : when a mkt is trending down pdl and val become imp
[13:29]   Mandar : ok
[13:29]   r m : ok, thanks
[13:30]   Shai : 8020 was -186
[13:30]   Porus : yes thanks for sharing
[13:30]   Shai : the number is not imp- but it was the heaviest selling ebfore the market came down
[13:31]   Shai : Welcome Porus 🙂
[13:32]   Amit J : and that seller was standing since morning
[13:33]   Shai : yes and hence hypo 2 if he would have covered
[13:33]   r m : yeah, these guys are like Moghal kings, won’t abdicate untill killed 🙂
[13:34]   r m : cnxit came down70 points to accomodate the stranded buyers in NF and BNF? 🙂
[13:34]   Shai : BTW the charts are posted by about 4- 5pm every evening
[13:35]   Shai : don’t eneter the markets without having a look at the previous day’s activity and a plan
[13:37]   Shai : Friday close- Orderflow is not heavily long and seller still standing
[13:38]   Porus : @shai, where is that 8020 seller on the chart?
[13:39]   r m : delta -186 at 8020 in that link given above
[13:39]   r m : largest in the day
[13:41]   Porus : @rm, is this today’s chart?
[13:42]   r m : no yesterday’s (13:28) Shai :http://vtrender.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/NF_vol_at_price_11.png
[13:42]   Porus : @rm, is the seller still standing today?
[13:42]   r m : yes, we could not get aove 8020 in morning
[13:43]   r m : high is 8018
[13:43]   Kathir : Hi shai RM all friends
[13:43]   r m : Hi Kathir 🙂
[13:44]   Porus : @rm, so if we scroll up todays chart, the seller will be visible?
[13:44]   Shai : yes in today’s chart it is all red above 7980
[13:45]   Shai : abv 7988*
[13:45]   Porus : so are we guessing that it is the same seller?
[13:46]   Shai : Could be different but we identify it as supply
[13:46]   Porus : ok, understood
[13:47]   Shai : some1 somewhere in the TA world gave importance to that level and chose to sell heavily there and we just spot it and trade
[13:48]   Narendra : bnf above val any trade
[13:48]   Shai : long trade abv 510 for 610/ 660
[13:51]   Sharad : Good Afternoon every one
[13:52]   r m : Hi Sharad
[13:52]   Sharad : BNF delta is positive
[13:52]   Sharad : Hi RM
[13:52]   Shai : yes NF is moving in and out
[13:53]   Sharad : Shai can not see even delat and current price togeather in one screen in BNF
[13:53]   Sharad : can reduce some past data
[13:54]   Sharad : wow delta near current price is good
[13:55]   Sharad : i am long now in BNF
[13:58]   Sharad : SL ?
[13:58]   Kathir : sl for bnf long now
[13:59]   Shai : Sl is VAL
[13:59]   Shai : 15450
[14:00]   Sharad : ok thanks
[14:00]   Shai : welcome 🙂
[14:00]   Kathir : ok
[14:02]   Narendra : shai told once the best trade r when its below vwap
[14:02]   Narendra : from 7910 to 7980
[14:02]   Shai : supply coming in NF
[14:06]   Sharad : SL hit
[14:10]   Kathir : @rm past 1 month FII SELLERS is it?
[14:12]   r m : they covered most of their index shorts yesterday, still were net short in the last series
[14:14]   r m : vwap holding so far
[14:14]   r m : looks like 2:30 coulld be red again?
[14:15]   Kathir : @rm ok thanks
[14:15]   r m : welcome
[14:16]   r m : S&P trading lower than 14th sep lows
[14:17]   Kathir : @rm hope you remember OI
[14:17]   Kathir : obedience index
[14:18]   Kathir : :}
[14:18]   r m : 🙂
[14:18]   Kathir : nf followed but bnf not
[14:18]   Manik : hmmm
[14:18]   Manik : 😉
[14:18]   Kathir : @manik :}
[14:20]   r m : both delta negtive now, though BNF is mildly so
[14:21]   Shai : yes
[14:21]   Shai : long trades not working at the highs
[14:22]   Shai : that delta is increasing showing sellers getting agressive again
[14:22]   r m : @Shai, now that we have FP, the buy sell bars on left side are redundant?
[14:23]   Shai : It will show the same
[14:23]   Shai : FP calculates the difference
[14:23]   r m : ok
[14:24]   Shai : wild movement today-
[14:24]   Shai : situation moving 50 points in 20 mins
[14:24]   Shai : (14:02) Shai :supply coming in NF
[14:25]   Sharad : Shai is it supply or threat? why then price moves up again
[14:26]   Porus : @shai, the big supply at 7954 is intact. So small volumes driving the move?
[14:26]   r m : buyers at 7930-40, the blue bars getting back there
[14:29]   r m : red galores!
[14:35]   r m : delta be damned, BN does not want to give up 🙂
[14:36]   Amit J : snp outlook upgrade
[14:36]   Amit J : mkt will rally
[14:36]   r m : ok
[14:36]   Amit J : sharp shrt covering
[14:43]   Amit J : @shai. now is it a failed auction? sorry to ask again but just trying to understand the concept
[14:43]   Shai : Going neutral day
[14:44]   Shai : No again not failed as it was below 8040 for more than 30 minutes
[14:44]   Shai : time waise got accepted below 7940
[14:44]   Shai : Please feel free to ask Q any number of times
[14:46]   Amit J : ok thanks. now i am clear
[14:46]   r m : @Shai, NF more possibility of Neutral centre or extreme?
[14:47]   Shai : sellers came then-(14:25) Sharad :Shai is it supply or threat? why then price moves up again
[14:48]   Shai : Can’t say RM- 8004 ref
[14:49]   r m : Thanks
[14:49]   Shai : (14:36) Amit J:snp outlook upgrade
[14:49]   Shai : (14:36) Amit J:mkt will rally
[14:53]   Shai : way beyond vwap
[14:53]   r m : bnf did the 80%, it just wants an excuse for doing 80% even next to a trend day!
[14:54]   Amit J : shai any view from here
[14:54]   Mandar : S&P upgrades India? any conformation?
[14:54]   Shai : Bias neutral now from bearish
[14:54]   Shai : Over to RBI on tues
[14:54]   Shai : Mkt should be quiet on Mon
[14:56]   Shai : -88 in NF at highs
[14:56]   Shai : longs are not in it
[15:00]   Chiranthan : What does that mean?
[15:00]   r m : @Mandar, no confirmaton but news – (13:28) Shai :http://vtrender.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/NF_vol_at_price_11.png
[15:00]   Mandar : 0k
[15:01]   r m : oops -http://tinyurl.com/q6w3rgc
[15:01]   Shai : Chiranthan short covering
[15:01]   Chiranthan : ok
[15:06]   Shai : Sellers in BNF
[15:06]   Shai : spot went to 7993
[15:07]   r m : @Shai, if it was not friday we could have bought PE based on that negative delta in NF?
[15:07]   Shai : yes
[15:07]   Shai : Looks like neutral extreme now
[15:07]   Chiranthan : Continue to hold 8100 ce?
[15:07]   Shai : Chiranthn close in next 10 mins
[15:08]   Chiranthan : ok
[15:08]   r m : Thanks, that FP chart will make things simpler 🙂
[15:08]   Shai : we may get a sip and then a rise again
[15:08]   Shai : *dip 🙂
[15:09]   r m : take a sip at the dip 🙂
[15:09]   Shai : Lots of puts will come on Monday morning if we don’t open abv today’s highs
[15:10]   r m : now that 8020 will be a support? or not enough volume there?
[15:11]   Shai : 8020 a supp now
[15:12]   r m : Thanks
[15:13]   Mandar : Shai, possiblity of new high in nifty above 8110?
[15:14]   Shai : Mandar my view remains a 7900- 8300 market for the rest of the year with a possibility of a rally in dec to 8550
[15:14]   Mandar : ok
[15:16]   Shai : Neutral extreme day in BOth
[15:16]   Shai : Today’s highs are important for Mon
[15:16]   Shai : An open above today’s highs is only continuation else we dip to today’s vwap
[15:18]   Shai : This went bad today in BNF- (14:06) Sharad :SL hit
[15:18]   Shai : If only the s&p news had come 40 mins earlier 🙂
[15:19]   r m : it was that Girish’s patented swipe which comes before many big moves!
[15:20]   Shai : Spot traders- 7995 cross on Mon will give 8047 and 8113
[15:25]   Shai : t
[15:26]   r m : Zerodha launching their own trading platform soon, they call it “Pi”
[15:27]   Shai : ok
[15:27]   Shai : that’s good
[15:27]   Shai : anything new?
[15:27]   r m : still on the works but they have included the bridge to take data to amibroker, ninjatrader and other trading platforms
[15:28]   r m : to make sem auto trading possible
[15:28]   Shai : ok
[15:28]   Anay : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pd66QOQwykQ
[15:29]   r m : nf delta at lowest in the day
[15:30]   Shai : that’s the serodha pi?
[15:30]   r m : yes
[15:30]   Shai : Delat not supportive of an upmove
[15:30]   Shai : on Mon
[15:30]   Anay : yes
[15:30]   Anay : ok
[15:31]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great weekend 🙂
[15:31]   Shai : Bye all
[15:31]   Mandar : bye all.
[15:31]   Anay : bye all
[15:31]   Shai : Enjoy the weekend
[15:31]   Porus : bye
[15:31]   Chiranthan : Bye all