OrderFlow charts and Notes 28/11

[08:49]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[08:50]   r m : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-281114/
[08:50]   r m : http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-271114/
[08:50]   Porus : GM all
[08:50]   r m : NF Hypo1 Above 8554➜8570➜8600 SL 8529 Hypo2 Below 8519➜8495➜8462 SL 8537 DEC Fut levels
[08:51]   Porus : RM, where can I get the opening OI for dec by client tyoe?
[08:51]   Porus : *type
[08:52]   r m : http://tinyurl.com/OIAnalysis
[08:52]   r m : Tab Client
[08:52]   r m : http://www.nse-india.com/products/content/derivatives/equities/archieve_fo.htm
[08:53]   Shai : GM all
[08:53]   Porus : Thanks RM
[08:53]   r m : directly from nse, take participant wise open interest report for desired date
[08:53]   r m : welcome
[08:54]   r m : BNF Hypo1 Above 18175➜18270➜18388 SL 18102 Hypo2 Below 18090➜18015 SL 18135 DEC Fut levels
[09:08]   Assortz : GM RM
[09:10]   Sharad : Gm all
[09:12]   Sharad : what is this positive range extension ?
[09:14]   r m : Hi Assortz 🙂
[09:16]   Assortz : charts up?
[09:16]   Chiranthan : NF 70+
[09:16]   Chiranthan : what is the reason?
[09:17]   Assortz : yes charts are fine now
[09:17]   r m : never ask the reason why, our’s is but to do or die 😀
[09:17]   Chiranthan : haha
[09:19]   Shai : Open away from range and value
[09:19]   Shai : 8588/ 18450s supp
[09:20]   Shai : 18644 tgt in BNF
[09:20]   r m : both opened near target1 of hypo1
[09:21]   r m : multiple inside days often do the range break in gap opens
[09:25]   Assortz : RM pls square off your positions as am not getting any opportunity to get entries 🙂
[09:25]   r m : lol’
[09:26]   r m : Yesterday at close FII owned 70% of Index Future Long OI and 7% of Short OI
[09:26]   r m : http://screencast.com/t/nt9CmpR0nu
[09:27]   r m : Clients naturally took the opposite position 🙂
[09:29]   Shai : 8620 intra supp now
[09:29]   Shai : If it holds abv we can see 8664 by close
[09:29]   Shai : else back to 8588 below 8620
[09:29]   Shai : also open type is a drive and hence vwap imp to hold
[09:32]   Sharad : (09:12) Sharad :what is this positive range extension ?
[09:35]   r m : range extension (breakout) on the upside
[09:35]   Sharad : so how to understand this chart
[09:36]   r m : which chart?
[09:36]   Sharad : this positive range extention
[09:36]   Shai : Sharad that chart is studying prev day’s value area and compared to the value area it is saying a positive range extension
[09:37]   Sharad : so how to use it
[09:37]   Shai : later as the auction develops in about 3 hours it will study today’s value area and mention ostive or negative range expansion relative t it
[09:38]   Shai : we already use it- It is just the chart applying the teory we use
[09:38]   Sharad : so that range will be beneficial for tomorrow
[09:38]   Shai : bias positive abv vah+pdh etc
[09:38]   Shai : if opens supports then yes
[09:38]   Sharad : ok
[09:39]   Shai : searching for 8664 abv 8620 and 18644 abv 18450
[09:39]   Shai : sl is just below vwap for these hypos
[09:40]   Sharad : ok so when w should buy here
[09:40]   r m : @Sharad, sorry, my screen can accomodat only half the omnovia screen, I did not know about that chart 🙁
[09:40]   Shai : Buy closer to vwap
[09:40]   Sharad : ok RM
[09:40]   Sharad : ok sure Shai
[09:40]   Sharad : or DPOC
[09:49]   Shai : the market is ona tear after a 3 day inside range
[09:49]   Shai : wise not to stand in front of the bulldozer and short
[09:50]   Shai : at some point the OTF will rest and hand it over to locals
[09:50]   Shai : closer to now 9.50- 55
[09:50]   Shai : then we can see sideways P developing
[09:53]   Porus : Shai, what is 18644 in BNF?
[09:54]   Porus : *significance of.
[09:54]   Shai : calculated range extnsion tgt
[09:54]   Porus : ok
[09:54]   Shai : It is usullay plotted across the MP chart in multple horiz lines
[09:55]   Porus : Are these Fin lines?
[09:55]   Shai : did not expect the BNF and NF to do so much today hence they are not there today- but will be there tom
[09:55]   Porus : *Fib
[09:55]   Sumit : gm everyone
[09:55]   Shai : No they are based on breakouts of value area in diff timefarems
[09:55]   Shai : timeframes*
[09:56]   Shai : MP is inclusive – nothing to do with Fib
[09:56]   Porus : ok
[09:56]   Shai : Like 8580 spot was aprojected MP level in dec
[09:57]   Shai : and I put this early this week but went below supp – The short term imbalance objective is at 8560-8580 spot which can be hit by the month end. Support for the coming week is at 8410 and at 8391 spot.
[09:57]   Ravi V P : 18655 is R2 in 15 min chart interestingly
[09:58]   Shai : can buy here NF with sl of 8620 still for 8664
[09:58]   Ravi V P : 18645 corrected
[09:59]   Shai : expiry was weird yesterday but the min the pressure of that 8500 ce is not on the system we can see the bounce
[09:59]   Shai : just a point on the conversation we had
[10:00]   Shai : that 65 L of 8500 ce was not rolled
[10:00]   Sharad : i think buyer were local
[10:01]   Sumit : I may remain busy most part of the day. today is my last day in room. I will see you all back again in few months :). take care
[10:02]   r m : Hi Sumit, looking forward to your coming back to the room 🙂
[10:03]   Sharad : ya Sumit will see you after some time
[10:04]   Sumit : may be next time I will see nifty at 9k or 5 figures. who knows :)??
[10:05]   Shai : TC Sumit- wish you the best
[10:06]   r m : @Sumit, for intraday, 5k 10K 15k all the same, it is intraday range that matters 😀
[10:06]   Ravi V P : 7500 and 8000PE is being builtup
[10:07]   Sharad : 8000 PE ?
[10:08]   Sumit : yes rm. but bigger the range and trend, faster it may happen
[10:08]   Sumit : more greens for you:)
[10:12]   r m : 🙂
[10:13]   r m : i am veg (mostly), love greens 😀
[10:13]   Sumit : 🙂
[10:13]   Amit J : shai any idea when should we see MO moving now. its continiously under pressure though index rising
[10:14]   r m : @Amit, since last 2 days market breadth improving
[10:15]   r m : MO climbed from -50 to -21 while Nifty was inside day
[10:16]   Amit J : but still negative which means adv decline still down.
[10:17]   Amit J : such a strong move in nifty should result in MO moving in positive atleast
[10:17]   r m : moving averages are down, MO uses 39 and 19 day moving averages of adv dec ratio
[10:17]   r m : it takes time to respond
[10:29]   Amit J : but stocks are weak only. very few selected stocks moving. any view when underperformers will move
[10:31]   r m : a tweet from @LazyTRaider explains it beautifully 🙂
[10:31]   r m : Stunned silence in dealing rooms and on twitter, as the much hated rally continues. Remember locals are short on Idx Futs and CEs both
[10:32]   Shai : Amit MO is the broder mkt – I think 1500 stocks
[10:33]   r m : my reading is that stocks with FII participation should be moving up
[10:36]   Amit J : they rolled over stock short. i was expecting that they would allow it to expire.
[10:37]   Sharad : how do you know amit they rolled over ?
[10:38]   r m : @Amit, FIIs are always short in stock futures, it is very rare for them to be net long in stock futures, happens only when market is near swing bottoms
[10:38]   Amit J : yes but look that the OI rise since last 2 mths
[10:42]   Amit J : RM make a chart of net short of FII in your excel and see
[10:42]   r m : ok
[10:46]   Ravi V P : FIIs are Long in TechM,AXIS,ICICI,HDFC BANK ,Infy for the last 3 months
[10:47]   Shai : 18645
[10:47]   Shai : but buyers have suddenly increased
[10:48]   r m : nf touch of vwap invigorated BNF buyers 🙂
[10:50]   Shai : BNF pull back this morning is 50 points only
[10:51]   Shai : if we don’t go below 18600 now we are into new longs for 18820 with sl of 18600 abv 18650
[10:51]   Sharad : 102 Shai
[10:52]   Sharad : 98 sorry… 18550 to 18452
[10:53]   Shai : right – that was he early 15 mins
[10:53]   Sharad : yes
[10:54]   Shai : Most ofetn that is the adjustment time
[10:54]   Sharad : ok
[10:54]   Sharad : Shai INR going up… same 62.56
[10:55]   Shai : yes
[10:56]   Sharad : ok
[10:56]   Shai : and 8500 ad 8600 ce are still bigger strikes
[10:57]   Shai : BNF is in a funky mood
[10:58]   Shai : path of the auctio should be towards 18544 now that 18645 is done
[10:58]   Sharad : 8500 CE 192 so at current price only 50 premium for entire month… so looks NF upside very limited for next 10 days
[10:58]   Shai : But can do weird things up abv
[10:58]   Shai : yes the best of gdp and rajan getting factored in
[10:59]   Sharad : if rate cut comes we will still fall
[10:59]   Shai : besides it’s too early in the series for a move like this
[10:59]   Shai : absolutely bewildering type of open
[10:59]   r m : these heights will be good for adding shorts too
[10:59]   Sharad : true without buying single nifty market up 140 points
[11:00]   Shai : could be month end buying also
[11:00]   r m : i mean short addition by institutions 🙂
[11:00]   Shai : surely it is a large cash purchase in the morning
[11:01]   Sharad : if month end buying then 10 days aaram as year end buying should start after 20/12
[11:01]   Shai : BNF OI is again 24% up in first 2 hours
[11:01]   Amit J : trending day, can we expect days high close
[11:01]   Shai : yes
[11:02]   Shai : OTF in control
[11:02]   Sharad : so buy dips till close
[11:04]   Shai : OMC’s up today on account of crude
[11:04]   Shai : BNF up on RBI
[11:04]   Shai : double blow
[11:04]   Amit J : yes and bnf also
[11:04]   Amit J : banks also benefit from crude
[11:05]   Amit J : also airlines
[11:05]   Shai : ok
[11:05]   Shai : autos too
[11:09]   Shai : BNF best to rise this move with a60 point trailing slo now
[11:10]   Shai : trailing from highs
[11:10]   Shai : can run upto 18838 which is 160 points plus with risk of 60 points
[11:10]   Shai : that OI addition is huge
[11:18]   Sharad : Shai buy BNF?
[11:18]   Sharad : @18665
[11:19]   Shai : yes
[11:20]   Sharad : ok
[11:20]   Shai : woth the risk
[11:20]   Sharad : sure
[11:20]   Shai : even if it has run up
[11:20]   Shai : NF also on track abv 8620
[11:20]   Shai : (09:39) Shai :searching for 8664 abv 8620 and 18644 abv 18450
[11:23]   Shai : 18680
[11:25]   Assortz : Nf worth to trail above 8664?
[11:25]   Shai : No- don’t suggest a carry at close if we close at high point
[11:25]   Assortz : ok
[11:25]   Shai : there is event risk ahead of gdp and RBI
[11:25]   Shai : have to trim
[11:26]   Assortz : yes
[11:27]   Shai : on 21/11 we had a similar buidup in BNF but we retaced 50% of that move
[11:27]   Shai : in next few sessions that is
[11:29]   r m : @Amit, re the FII stock future OI here is a chart http://screencast.com/t/o9pQnh7BX3
[11:29]   r m : it was lost in my collection of spreadsheets
[11:31]   r m : of last 3 peaks in FII stock future OI, 2 coincided with NF bottoms but the one this year SEP was an exception
[11:32]   r m : this is net FII stock OI vs NF
[11:32]   Ravi V P : charts stopped..
[11:33]   Porus : bnf 18700
[11:33]   r m : only time FII net stocks OI went positive (albeit for a single day!) was in
[11:34]   r m : Aug 2013 when Nifty was trying to touch 5K
[11:35]   Ravi V P : bn heading 18800
[11:43]   Shai : charts up?
[11:43]   Porus : yes
[11:44]   Porus : but slow
[11:44]   Ravi V P : ril
[11:45]   Amit J : ril will rcoket
[11:45]   Amit J : big news coming
[11:46]   Ravi V P : 992-1002 in single 5 min candle
[11:46]   Ravi V P : with big vol
[11:46]   Ravi V P : another candle with big vol
[11:50]   Amit J : news now on cnbc
[11:50]   Ravi V P : what news.
[11:51]   Amit J : dispute resolved
[11:51]   Amit J : with cag
[11:52]   Ravi V P : third candle with big vol
[11:55]   Ravi V P : relcap….now with big vol
[12:01]   Narendra : Shai : there is event risk ahead of gdp and RBI
[12:01]   Narendra : what risk?
[12:02]   r m : RBI not going for rate cut
[12:03]   r m : or hawkish statement by Rajan
[12:04]   r m : though VIX is not climbing, i thought it will go up before date with Rajan 🙂
[12:08]   Porus : Shai, pls give levels for Cairn again – steep drop in oil prices and sharp lower opening in share price today.
[12:12]   Shai : cairn 265 res now till Mon
[12:12]   Shai : abv 265 can do 271
[12:13]   Shai : suopp placed at 261
[12:13]   Porus : ok. Thanks
[12:16]   Sharad : Shai Reliance crossed 1014 and near only can buy intraday?
[12:17]   Shai : yes RIL could be headed for 1088 quickly
[12:18]   Sharad : intraday target ?
[12:18]   Shai : needs a weekly close abv 995 preferbaly 1001 cash
[12:18]   Sharad : that is for sure now
[12:19]   Shai : 1003 intra supp tgt 1027 by mon if not close today
[12:19]   Sharad : high 1024.90
[12:20]   Ravi V P : Upto 1100ce long buildup and upto 1060 put writing is going on
[12:20]   Sharad : ohh cash high is 1017.35 only
[12:28]   Porus : Shal, SL of 18675 bor bnf buy trade is fine?
[12:37]   Shai : it is the pull bak low
[12:37]   Shai : stay in with vwap sl
[12:38]   Janak : one of those signature bn days – when it does 800-900 pts in a day?
[12:47]   Janak : a green here will again see day high 735?
[12:53]   Porus : RM, what is vwap for bnf?
[12:54]   r m : 18579 on my charts, differs a bit from the one on tick charts here
[12:55]   Porus : Shai, what is the vwap on our bnf chart, for sl? Can’t see it.
[12:56]   r m : 18579 on nse too http://www.nse-india.com/live_market/dynaContent/live_watch/get_quote/GetQuoteFO.jsp?underlying=BANKNIFTY&instrument=FUTIDX&expiry=26JUN2014&type=-&strike=-
[12:56]   r m : you have to selec the correct contract in above link
[12:57]   Porus : ok.
[13:09]   Ravi V P : charts down
[13:11]   r m : charts working, price was not moving
[13:13]   Shai : if we cross 8664 then volumes are good for 8702 by close
[13:13]   Janak : before that one touch to vwap shai?
[13:14]   Shai : came already 8643
[13:14]   Janak : bn
[13:15]   r m : BN came near vwap at 9:30 🙂
[13:15]   Shai : IBH more im for trend day
[13:15]   Shai : vwap often does not get visisted as it is not mean reversion
[13:15]   Shai : opp concepts in MP
[13:16]   r m : 8664
[13:16]   Shai : yes I know I’m changing the goal posts- (13:13) Shai :if we cross 8664 then volumes are good for 8702 by close
[13:16]   Shai : But am tracking seller responses and they are weak
[13:17]   Shai : so bulls take it all away
[13:17]   r m : yeah, i just marked the passing goalpost 🙂
[13:17]   Shai : pull back lows established at 8642 and 18643
[13:17]   Shai : imp stops for rest f the day and Monday too
[13:21]   Shai : 8620 cross in spot send Nifty into another orbit
[13:21]   Shai : fast move can come to 9000+ provided 8580-8560 holds through Mon and tues
[13:27]   Shai : chart from 8620 : http://screencast.com/t/0XCOEuuAm57
[13:30]   Janak : frozen
[13:41]   Janak : seller in
[13:44]   Shai : test
[13:45]   Janak : passed only if u give a buy in bn here;
[13:46]   r m : lol
[13:47]   Assortz : @Janak it was given twice today..so lets pass Shai here 🙂
[13:47]   Janak : ummmm……well…..alright – we will have a meeting to think about considering to see whether there an outside chance to pass u;
[13:47]   Janak : shai
[13:48]   r m : @Assortz, Janak trades every wave in the chart from both ends, it is never enough for him 🙂
[13:48]   Assortz : of course sky is limit 🙂
[13:48]   r m : yeah 🙂
[13:54]   Janak : there are two hypos here 🙂
[13:54]   Janak : 675-755
[13:54]   Janak : and 675-603
[13:54]   Janak : which trade has more prob. to work?
[14:16]   Shai : trend day more poss to close at highest point
[14:17]   Shai : 8664 again
[14:17]   Shai : delta still good in both
[14:18]   Shai : It’s that time of the trend dat arund 2.30- 2.45 when BNF can cover 70- 80 points in mins
[14:18]   Chiranthan : sl for nf above 8664
[14:19]   Ravi V P : HDFCBANK still hanging at 969 and when it reaches 980-990…bnf
[14:21]   r m : ES is going down
[14:23]   r m : US markets will be half day today!
[14:23]   Janak : rotation between 705 and 660?
[14:32]   Shai : Take NF abv day high with a 10 point stop
[14:33]   Porus : Shai, you mean buy above day high?
[14:34]   r m : yes
[14:34]   Porus : ok
[14:34]   Amit J : reliance back below 1001
[14:35]   Janak : 660-70 zone is a fortress
[14:38]   Mandar : good afternoon. Shai, bosch tgt above 19500?
[14:44]   Ravi V P : RIL 1000CE is a good buy
[14:45]   Shai : Reliance at midpoint of a 34 point move today
[14:47]   Ravi V P : 2 candles 991-1002 and 1001-1021:32 points
[14:48]   Shai : bars have gone sideways
[14:48]   Shai : looks like this is it- No more highs coming
[14:48]   Mandar : Shai, bosch tgt above 19500?
[14:48]   Shai : maybe a bit of caution ahead of gdp
[14:49]   Shai : bosch is come in fno from now right?
[14:50]   Mandar : yes
[14:50]   Mandar : yes
[14:55]   Shai : Move could run out near 19500 actually
[14:55]   Porus : Exit now?
[14:56]   Porus : bnf, nf
[14:56]   Rahul G : shai views on ITC if possible
[14:56]   Mandar : ok
[14:56]   Shai : consoldiation requited around 17100- 17800 now
[14:57]   Mandar : ok
[14:58]   Shai : ITC holding 361 is good
[14:58]   Shai : abv 365 can run to 372/ 377 next week sl of 361
[14:59]   Shai : abv 365.5 tgt 377.6
[15:00]   Shai : Yes Porus exit . In BNF I feel we can still see 830 on Mon
[15:01]   Shai : But sl will be near 18550 for overnight hold
[15:03]   r m : neotradeanalytics.com is now offering nse fno and cds data for Ninjatrader7, will use the trial version next week and update
[15:06]   Amit J : broader mkt still selling since morning
[15:07]   r m : 823/625 adv dec in nse
[15:07]   r m : Declining volumes 25%
[15:11]   Porus : Shai, if GDP numbers are worse than expected, do you expect bnf and nf to fall on monday?
[15:12]   Shai : Porus 1st supp at 18643 pull back low then 18500
[15:13]   Shai : NF supp at 8638 now and 8611 on Mon
[15:15]   Rahul G : shai there is a new chart after the delta chart
[15:16]   Shai : yes that is the same FP chart with 30 Min tF using candles
[15:16]   Shai : every candle is 30 min
[15:18]   Shai : a bit of an anticlimax at the close but still a good day for the bull
[15:20]   Assortz : 8657 and 8662 offered good resistance
[15:30]   Shai : Bye all
[15:30]   Shai : Have a nice evening
[15:30]   Porus : bye
[15:30]   Chiranthan : bye
[15:30]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great weekend 🙂