OrderFlow charts and Notes 29/10

[08:53]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[08:53]   Porus : GM
[08:53]   Clay : gm
[08:54]   r m : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-29th-oct/
[08:55]   r m : http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-2810/
[08:55]   r m : NF Hypo1 Above 8053➜8082➜8111(Stop below 8020) Hypo2 Below 8050➜8022➜8003
[08:56]   r m : BNF Hypo1 Above 16720➜16820➜16930(Stop 16660) Hypo2 Below 16640➜16580
[08:58]   Amit J : gm
[09:00]   Manik : gm
[09:00]   Sharad : GM all\
[09:03]   r m : Results today – Tech Mahindra, Dr Reddy, Grasim, Thomas Cook, Dish TV
[09:06]   r m : Results tomorrow – Maruti, Ceat, ACC, Ambuja Cements, NHPC, Bharti
[09:09]   Kathir : Good morning Shai RM and all friens
[09:10]   Shai : GM all
[09:11]   r m : Hi Kathir
[09:11]   Kathir : @rm pre open?
[09:11]   Kathir : +30 nf
[09:12]   r m : Pre-open suggests NF open near ref level 8082
[09:12]   r m : and BNF near 16820
[09:13]   Sumit : gm everyone
[09:13]   Kathir : @rm after what can we do 🙂
[09:14]   Shai : Can play out as an OAOR
[09:14]   Shai : No need to rush into a position
[09:14]   r m : Thanks
[09:14]   Shai : but will remain a dipp buy till 8052 neutral extreme hlds
[09:14]   Shai : tgt 8111/ 8170 F
[09:14]   Kathir : ok shai
[09:14]   Shai : same view as 8030 spot
[09:15]   Shai : made yesterday
[09:15]   Kathir : yest shai mentioned to buy ce if spot crosses 8030
[09:16]   Shai : No. I suggested buying at open today
[09:17]   Kathir : ok shai now any new entry pls let us know
[09:18]   r m : @Shai, ok to buy bnf here with stop at 16660?
[09:19]   Shai : yes
[09:19]   r m : Thanks
[09:20]   Shai : even NF sl is 8050 now of the neutral ext
[09:20]   r m : ok
[09:20]   Shai : dips will be bought today
[09:20]   Kathir : @shai you mentioned chances for a trend day today?
[09:22]   Shai : there is an event risk – so difficult to say it will be all one way
[09:22]   Shai : some vaolatility will be there
[09:24]   Shai : we played for 8082 neutral extreme close yesterday but again it came in the morning today 🙁
[09:25]   Shai : anyways it is easier for bias now as long as 8050 holds
[09:25]   Kathir : OK
[09:25]   Shai : below 8050 we can dive to see the FA print of 8003
[09:25]   Shai : above 8050 we get to 8111
[09:25]   Shai : so let’s play those 50- 60 points either way
[09:25]   Kathir : for longs now 8050 Sl right?
[09:25]   Shai : yes
[09:26]   Kathir : ok thanks
[09:26]   Kathir : @RM what will be the price of 16700 ce if bnf goes to 16675 today?
[09:26]   Shai : yesterday there were buyers in BNF at 16700 at the close
[09:27]   Shai : they have to come up here and defend 16700 now
[09:27]   Shai : 16690 is the ref line there
[09:33]   r m : @Kathir, 77-78
[09:34]   Kathir : ok ge thanks
[09:34]   Kathir : @shai what supp and resi noe for usd/inr
[09:34]   r m : welcome jee 🙂
[09:35]   Kathir : @RM bnf se the highs of 16400,500,600 ce
[09:36]   r m : 🙂
[09:36]   r m : 400, 300, 200
[09:38]   Shai : Kathir brod range 61.06- 61.57
[09:39]   r m : @Kathir, if bnf goes near or above 16800 now then max percetage rise should come in 16800CE, my theory (with no documentary evidence) is that the strike which becomes ATM at the target shows the highest rise 🙂
[09:40]   Kathir : @shai thanks
[09:40]   Kathir : @RM ok then better to buy that ce right?
[09:43]   r m : @Kathir, yes, but delta is not agreeable with longs as of now
[09:43]   Kathir : yeah wait
[09:43]   Kathir : pink also
[09:44]   r m : NF has shown better resilience
[09:45]   Shai : It’s an OAOR except BNF came for gap fill
[09:45]   r m : ok
[09:48]   r m : cnxit is strong today
[09:50]   Shai : 16693 is an imp low in BNF now
[09:51]   Shai : good point on cnxit
[09:51]   Kathir : @SHAI what resi for cnx IT from here now
[09:51]   Shai : 10840/50 has been resisting for last full week now
[09:57]   Kathir : ok
[10:01]   Shai : Buyers in NF
[10:01]   Porus : other time frame?
[10:01]   Chiranthan : stop for nf buy at 8081?
[10:04]   Shai : same 8049
[10:05]   Shai : it’s an OAOR so 10 point stop may not work
[10:05]   Chiranthan : ok
[10:13]   Manik : @ shai sbin intraday levels pls
[10:19]   Rahul G : shai any views on yes bank
[10:21]   r m : @Manik, today you have managed to bend vwap band 🙂
[10:23]   Manik : it happens sometimes 🙂
[10:24]   r m : BNF delta rising at the lows, maybe some profit booking
[10:26]   Manik : @ nf showing strength irespective neg delta both in oct and nov
[10:27]   r m : yes
[10:28]   r m : i guess we have to consider price also with delta, I mean gap up will find sellers at the high always
[10:28]   Manik : 10 min red bar is ahuge one
[10:28]   Manik : true
[10:29]   Shai : sbin under 2660 will show profit booking today
[10:29]   Shai : can tgt 2620 if sl at 2661 remins
[10:29]   r m : infy marching up steadily dragging the illiquid cnxit along!
[10:30]   Manik : tnx shai
[10:32]   r m : bnf on hypo2 path now but did not see too many new sellers below al
[10:32]   r m : *val
[10:33]   Manik : might come *:)
[10:33]   r m : 🙂
[10:34]   Shai : yes band 623 is a supp
[10:35]   Shai : auction in yesband is very rotational in the range of yesterday
[10:35]   r m : 16630 was seeing buyers yesterday
[10:39]   r m : Manik got those sellers even without delta – power of persuasion 🙂
[10:40]   Rahul G : okay thanks shai
[10:41]   Manik : pdl and shai rekha , iam out
[10:41]   r m : permabear wins as always, congrats Manik 🙂
[10:42]   Kathir : yeah 🙂
[10:42]   Manik : 🙂
[10:43]   Kathir : nf delta -340
[10:43]   r m : I was thinking that someone bought at PDL, but realized that the delta recovery was due to Manik’s short booking 🙂
[10:43]   Kathir : 370
[10:44]   Manik : @ rm aap aage aur hum peeche , aise koson door .jaana hai
[10:44]   Manik : 🙂
[10:44]   Shai : BNF dip is being bought
[10:44]   Kathir : kya hai
[10:44]   Shai : next green on passive should see 16690
[10:44]   Shai : NF is visisblly differnt per delta
[10:47]   r m : Maybe NF will find some solace at 8030 spot
[11:01]   Kathir : @SHAI bnf any chance for hypo 2 16580 test?
[11:02]   Shai : Kathir I think first we go to 16690 now again
[11:02]   Shai : then if we get rejected there at vwap we may come down again
[11:03]   Sharad : very high volume in NF
[11:04]   Kathir : ok shai
[11:04]   Sharad : @ 8064 some one selling single ticks of 2000 lots
[11:10]   Kathir : @rm any expectation from fomc meet..i mean bad or good news for markets
[11:10]   Amit J : i told yesterday also, Fed cant be hawkish. they will continue with stance.
[11:10]   Amit J : thats positive
[11:11]   r m : Thanks Amit
[11:11]   r m : bnf at val
[11:12]   Kathir : ok amit
[11:14]   Shai : 16690
[11:15]   Kathir : @shai shall we take new longs bnf above 16700 now
[11:15]   Kathir : or sell here with 720 SL
[11:16]   Shai : stay out I suggest in BNF for some time
[11:16]   Shai : a sell her will bring back 645
[11:17]   Kathir : ok
[11:29]   Shai : NF is stteady here
[11:30]   Shai : did not find new selleing below IBL like yesterday
[11:30]   Shai : can still go to 8084/ 8111
[11:30]   Shai : sl is stil the same
[11:30]   Shai : BNF has just messed up a bit by going below 16660 hypo sl
[11:31]   Shai : IN my view 16690 needs some time – it had to be visisted acc to the aucti theory but we stay flat here and see what it wnats to do now
[11:32]   Shai : intra day is still 16720- 16640 here
[11:32]   Shai : but larget trade idea is in doubt no whether it wants 16930 of hypo1 or 16500 first
[11:32]   Shai : *larger * NOw**
[11:35]   Shai : (11:34) Shai :delta in BNF is still the early sellers of the morning v/s responsive buying from 16600 or even short covering from there
[11:44]   Kathir : @shai volume in NF very good till now but delta under -400?
[11:44]   Kathir : proft boking?
[11:50]   Shai : longs are not chasing
[11:50]   Porus : the quiet before the storm?
[11:55]   Kathir : @manik very silent?
[11:55]   Kathir : happy with morning profits 🙂
[11:55]   Manik : 🙂
[11:56]   Kathir : you put the vwap band way down now
[11:57]   Kathir : invisible now 🙂
[11:57]   r m : @Kathir, Manik pulled it so hard that it broke 😀
[11:57]   Manik : 🙂
[11:57]   Kathir : yeah 🙂
[11:57]   Kathir : may be we expect a crash
[11:59]   Kathir : @RM actually maniks is preparing for tomorw’s settleent trade..this is all practice
[12:00]   Kathir : tomrow tough day for vwap bands
[12:00]   r m : yeah, practice makes a man perfect 🙂
[12:00]   Manik : LOL
[12:01]   Kathir : past two days i am away from manik..so unable to preict and follow
[12:01]   Kathir : predict
[12:01]   Manik : @ kathir anna vidunga anna
[12:02]   Kathir : lol
[12:02]   Kathir : @RM he says please leave me
[12:02]   r m : lol
[12:03]   Kathir : @manik ok today enough lets continue tomorow
[12:03]   Manik : sure bro
[12:04]   Clay : @cvkmohan @cvkmohan Booked the last few at 170=Booked the last few at 170
[12:04]   Kathir : @RM this SGX guys making trade difficult for us
[12:05]   Kathir : @clay ?
[12:05]   r m : @Kathir, won’t be a bad idea to settle in singapore 🙂
[12:05]   r m : @Kathir, that is Kris’s tweet
[12:06]   Kathir : yeah 🙂
[12:06]   Clay : @cvkmohan bought 7900 CE at 40something
[12:06]   Kathir : oh ok
[12:06]   Porus : SC not to reveal names. SIT may by 30 Nov.
[12:06]   Kathir : even i was about to ask you about the status of his 7900 ce
[12:07]   r m : he keeps updating on twitter, i think he bought some 8100PE at open today
[12:07]   Kathir : he bought that when nf went o 750 range
[12:07]   Kathir : oh is it
[12:08]   r m : @cvkmohan Booked the last few at 170. Bought a few 8100PE at 43.
[12:08]   r m : this was 2 hours back
[12:09]   Clay : his 7900 CE trade was fantastic-had to hold through elections,Diwali,SGX Nifty up and down
[12:10]   r m : yeah, his trades are like that!
[12:10]   Kathir : yeah he always thinks other side
[12:10]   Kathir : great trade
[12:15]   Manik : 3900
[12:15]   Manik : @ shai will infy cross 3900
[12:37]   Shai : infy 3882
[12:37]   Shai : 3930 if we open abv 3882 tom
[12:38]   Kathir : @shai bnf tested 16645 now
[12:39]   Manik : ok shai tnx
[12:40]   Sharad : Shai someone selling 200 lots NF constantly..check for last 10-15 min
[12:41]   Sharad : that is why delta going deep minus side
[12:43]   Shai : yes
[12:43]   Shai : delta reflects what happes in mkt
[12:44]   Sharad : this delta tells what will happen tomorrow
[12:44]   Sharad : Shai really salute for puting delta here
[12:48]   Kathir : @sharad but that seller did not pll the price much down?
[12:48]   Kathir : pull
[12:48]   Manik : patience is a virtue
[12:49]   r m : vulture is a patient bird 😀
[12:49]   Manik : LOL
[12:49]   Kathir : 🙂
[12:50]   Sharad : true but once distribution over than only price can come down
[12:50]   Kathir : ok
[12:51]   Manik : @ bnf is showing strength
[12:51]   Manik : @rm
[12:52]   r m : yes, compared to nf not many sellers in bnf at the lows
[12:55]   Manik : sellers @ 16626 ,are not active !!!
[12:55]   Kathir : even nov bnf is positive
[12:58]   r m : @Manik, 16626 shows poor health of buyers but buyers have mananged to bring bnf above that 🙂
[12:59]   Manik : so only move below 16610 would do good !!!
[13:01]   r m : maybe traders waiting for cues from Europe open now
[13:16]   r m : (*** Private to Kathir ) http://screencast.com/t/WD2xfnWYqxC
[13:32]   Porus : Europe up!
[13:50]   r m : bnf is caught between a rock and a hard place 🙂
[13:53]   Clay : Nifty in this run up has encountered selling intraday_like yesterday-The buyers seem to be in no hurry to win battle intraday-they wait for a gap up llike yesterday,and b4 that also
[13:54]   Clay : not suggesting that pattetn continues
[13:57]   r m : FII’s are net long everyday in index futures while client category is net short http://screencast.com/t/uWGGJCkUnJ
[13:59]   Clay : Index futures in that table includes Bank Nifty or just Nifty Futures?
[13:59]   r m : all index futures including cnxit too
[14:00]   Clay : ok thanks rm for posting that extremely interesting table
[14:01]   r m : link is available to that spreadsheet under Documents on right bottom side of this page
[14:02]   r m : http://tinyurl.com/NSEOI
[14:03]   Manik : @ rm hypo 2 possible in BNF?
[14:05]   Narendra : this huge delta in nifty will bring 1 dip in nifty
[14:05]   Sharad : 16580 ?
[14:05]   Kathir : oh ok no problem you send it fron that also
[14:05]   Manik : @ sharad ss
[14:05]   Kathir : just to check the update happeneing in twitter
[14:06]   r m : sure
[14:07]   Kathir : sorry this msg was sent to RM 🙂
[14:07]   Sharad : Shai there is midterm election on 4th November..in USA any significance ?
[14:08]   Sharad : chances of democrats losing power in senate
[14:08]   Amit J : very interesting mkt 🙂
[14:09]   Manik : @ shai are we heading lower
[14:10]   Sharad : still 200 contracts of NF selling per tick is continue
[14:11]   Kathir : that guys is a 200 lot guy
[14:12]   r m : his keyboard problem, does not have smaller numbers 😀
[14:12]   Kathir : thats why delta is below 700 for the past 2 hrs
[14:12]   Kathir : lol
[14:12]   Manik : lol
[14:13]   Kathir : manik’s friend ?
[14:13]   Sharad : even BNF delta going further minus side
[14:13]   Kathir : ok
[14:14]   Shai : Delta is bad without a doubt but the mkt is still at vwap
[14:14]   Sharad : 200 lots means 10,000 per trade which is huge
[14:14]   Kathir : yeah
[14:14]   Shai : plus the inside day break is holding abv neutral extreme high of 8050
[14:15]   Shai : what it would mean is that even if we get a gap up tom on this delta the mkt will not sustain the higher prices
[14:15]   Sharad : tomorrow should be a big day… may be minus side as per delta
[14:15]   Chiranthan : Any NF pe that can be bought?
[14:15]   Shai : yes can gap it up and stay here only
[14:16]   Sharad : i bot 8100 PE @ 41
[14:16]   Shai : chiranthan the pe can be rewarding as tgt below 8050 is 8003/ 7934
[14:16]   Sharad : BNF new low
[14:18]   Narendra : shai ur view on century textile shorts till tommorow
[14:18]   Chiranthan : 8100 pe or 8050 pe? which one is a better option
[14:18]   Sharad : shai can you say something on this …(14:07) Sharad :Shai there is midterm election on 4th November..in USA any significance ?(14:08) Sharad :chances of democrats losing power in senate
[14:18]   r m : for 8003/7934 maybe 8000PE is a better idea, buy and forget type, stop loss built in 🙂
[14:19]   Kathir : built in Sl
[14:19]   Sharad : 7.80 right now
[14:19]   Chiranthan : ok then will buy 8000 pe
[14:20]   r m : it is 8 rs lottery ticket 😀
[14:20]   Chiranthan : ok
[14:20]   Kathir : @chiranthan loterry doesnt have any Sl so play accordingly
[14:21]   Kathir : i mean 0 is the SL
[14:21]   Narendra : bnf @ shai rekha
[14:21]   Kathir : so take risk accordingly and need to hold till tom eve if so
[14:21]   Sharad : NF delta october and november total more than 1500 minus
[14:21]   Kathir : @rm -800
[14:21]   Kathir : yeah
[14:21]   r m : even if NF touchs 8K that PE will be about 5-10 bucks tomorrow, will make profit only below 8K
[14:22]   Chiranthan : ok kathir
[14:22]   Kathir : @rm thats where kris is he bought 8100 pe 🙂
[14:23]   Kathir : @ 8000 it will be 100
[14:23]   r m : yes, he is a wise man 🙂
[14:23]   Shai : centext weak below 522 in cash
[14:23]   Shai : can go to 502
[14:24]   Shai : Sharad there was a similar cry about the US midterm the alst time also when Bush was presiding
[14:24]   Shai : But it went off a n nn event
[14:25]   Shai : I think the focus is still the US economy rather that the political events there
[14:25]   Sharad : just read so asked you
[14:25]   Shai : ok
[14:26]   Shai : charts are bullish abv spx 1664
[14:26]   Shai : 1964**
[14:26]   Shai : tgt is 2010/ 2018
[14:26]   Kathir : now whats the price of spx
[14:26]   Shai : 1985
[14:27]   Kathir : ok
[14:27]   Sharad : 1685
[14:28]   Sharad : sorry 1985
[14:40]   Kathir : ANOTHER ONE HOUR CRICIAL FOR TOMORROWS SELEMENT
[14:41]   Sharad : BNF already broken down
[14:42]   Sharad : 445 lots BNF someone sold @ 16590
[14:43]   Sharad : BNF delta at lowest
[14:43]   Kathir : yeah now that 200 lot guy has increased the lot size
[14:44]   Sharad : true Kathir
[14:44]   Kathir : may be he is a 10000 bnf 400 lot 10k
[14:44]   Sharad : may be
[14:44]   Kathir : may be someone has put a sl order might just got triggerred
[14:45]   Sharad : Shai is checking VIX
[14:45]   Shai : geerally speaaking NSE traders are right about the FED move in the last 45 mins
[14:45]   Shai : yes Vix stayed below 13.8 res
[14:45]   Shai : so not much fear going int the event
[14:47]   Kathir : @shai any views for setlmnt close tomrw for both
[14:48]   Kathir : Nf strugling with green and pink
[14:48]   Amit J : shai again failed auction at days low if we test days high
[14:49]   Amit J : ?
[14:49]   r m : only green and pink struggling, nf is pretty cheerful, near the open price again
[14:50]   Sharad : Nifty giving Dojiin daily timeframe
[14:50]   Shai : Amit too tight to call that an FA
[14:51]   Amit J : ok thanks.
[14:56]   Shai : wc
[15:00]   Kathir : @shai any views for setlmnt close tomrw for both
[15:03]   Shai : Kathir if 8030 sustains on spot then we close at highs
[15:03]   Kathir : as of now no probs with that i guess shai 8080 now
[15:04]   Porus : @ shai, what is the outlook for BNF tomorrow?
[15:04]   Shai : yes tgt abv 8030 is 8180 spot so we have to see if we stay abv 8030 at open
[15:05]   Shai : Porus BNF may have put in a short term top today at 16785F
[15:06]   Shai : 16720 spot was our level – and BNF has not sustianed abv it in the multi day tf
[15:07]   r m : neutral day in NF
[15:09]   Shai : yes can be neutral extreme again
[15:09]   Shai : tgt 8111
[15:09]   Shai : sl 8076
[15:09]   Shai : 20 mins
[15:11]   Shai : not happening
[15:12]   Shai : vwap band unrelenting
[15:13]   Shai : I is taking NF up
[15:13]   Shai : both at day highs
[15:13]   Shai : *IT
[15:13]   Shai : bnf at midpoint
[15:19]   Shai : shorts staying in NF
[15:21]   Shai : spot at 8092
[15:21]   Shai : would prefer a trip to 8030 spot and then up
[15:21]   Anay : does the delta suggest that we are gearing up for a fall 2moro?
[15:22]   Anay : i.e. -ve from FOMC?
[15:22]   Shai : yes Anay that is waht seems to be the case here
[15:22]   Anay : how does the combined delta for this week looks like?
[15:22]   Kathir : nf delta almost -800 now
[15:22]   Shai : today’s data has shifted it to negative
[15:23]   Shai : as botth nov and ct are neg
[15:23]   Shai : oct*
[15:23]   Shai : neutral extreme clsoe
[15:24]   Shai : if we don’t get a gap up tom then the short is in buisness per AMT
[15:24]   Anay : ok
[15:26]   Shai : yup seeling into the close
[15:27]   Kathir : -900
[15:27]   Shai : yesterday into the close some1 bought a lot of BNF longs near 16680 and got a 100 point gap up
[15:28]   Shai : today it is NF selling
[15:29]   Shai : whoever is selling is very brave or knows Yellen well 🙂
[15:30]   Kathir : 🙂
[15:30]   Amit J : or must be 8100 writers
[15:30]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂
[15:30]   Chiranthan : Bye
[15:30]   Porus : bye
[15:30]   Sharad : bye…
[15:31]   Shai : 8100 ppe written huge today
[15:31]   Shai : Pe
[15:31]   Shai : not good with expiry tom
[15:31]   Shai : Bye all
[15:31]   Shai : Have a nice evening
[15:31]   Kathir : thanks and bye all
[15:32]   Clay : bye all