OrderFlow charts and text 19 aug

Aug_Bnf Aug_Nf

 

General Chat Transcript

 

Room Name: Vtrender
Date and Time: August 19, 2014 09:24:24

[08:57]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[08:58]   Shai : Gm all
[08:59]   Shai : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-19th-aug/
[09:09]   r m : Pre-market suggests open around 7900/15500
[09:13]   Shai : 7886 pdh and imbalance tgt of 7908-16 ref areas
[09:14]   Shai : below 7886 the auction can go back to 7850 and above 7914 we head to 8000
[09:17]   Shai : There are buyers in NF at the open
[09:18]   Shai : above 7916 yesterday’s shorts are in touble
[09:18]   Shai : and we can see further short covering
[09:19]   Shai : currently NF in discount
[09:23]   Shai : sellers came back
[09:24]   Shai : now an oaor type open both time frames seen
[09:28]   Shai : BNF on for 15657 sl of pdh from here
[09:29]   Shai : that 155500 ce is now 190
[09:29]   Shai : can also buy abv 15540 our pre mkt ref level with sl of 30- 40 points below
[09:31]   Shai : 7916 NF
[09:33]   Shai : There were 9000+ new long contracts in BNF yesterday
[09:33]   Shai : all of them will be watching pdh and 15350
[09:55]   Shai : OAOR- (09:24) Shai :now an oaor type open both time frames seen
[09:56]   Shai : If we stay 7880- 7920 today and create a balance it sets up a very interesting expiry
[09:56]   Shai : then both 8000 ce and 7800 pe become equal winners
[10:38]   Kathir : Hi Shai RM all
[10:38]   Shai : buyers near pdh in NF and BNF
[10:39]   Shai : Hi Kathir
[10:39]   Shai : Looks like we have a balanced profile today
[10:39]   r m : Hi Kathir
[10:39]   Kathir : 🙂
[10:40]   Kathir : @Shai you mentioned to buy PE around nifty spot 7890-7910 is this still valid
[10:44]   Kiran : hi
[10:45]   Kathir : Hi kiran
[10:45]   r m : Hi Kiran
[10:49]   Shai : No Kathir we buy that PE only if PDH breaks- let price confirm our bias
[10:49]   Kathir : ok thanks
[10:49]   Shai : it’s an aggressive anticipatory short here with sl above 7916+ few
[10:50]   Shai : but price does not confirm as we are trading abv pdh
[10:50]   Kathir : ok
[11:08]   Kathir : @RM BNf implemented Shai hypo 1 before market opening
[11:09]   Shai : sometimes the trade is not workable at opens – cannot help it
[11:09]   Shai : but the levels are still great
[11:09]   Shai : we can use them for day ref
[11:09]   r m : yes Shai
[11:10]   r m : @Kathir, market acted on Shai’s hype at pre-open 🙂
[11:11]   Kathir : 🙂
[11:11]   Shai : BNF OF of the morning- http://screencast.com/t/kxiJgs7hpU
[11:11]   r m : *hypo
[11:11]   Shai : still buyers in control
[11:11]   Shai : 100 points upside is there to 15640 and then 15876 is weekly tgt
[11:12]   r m : @Shai, long in NF above IBH advisable or we should give some time for NF to cool down?
[11:13]   Kathir : if this happens this week..this setlement we can get a lottery
[11:13]   r m : @Kathir, some indication of where your lottery ticket is located 🙂
[11:13]   r m : (09:56) Shai :If we stay 7880- 7920 today and create a balance it sets up a very interesting expiry(09:56) Shai :then both 8000 ce and 7800 pe become equal winners
[11:13]   Kathir : lol
[11:14]   Kathir : yes ge
[11:14]   Shai : RM prefer buying closer to pdh with a sl or at vwap
[11:14]   r m : Thanks
[11:14]   Shai : breakout trade is risky today as NF may come back to vwap
[11:15]   Shai : I meant sl is risky
[11:15]   Shai : though bias is long
[11:15]   Kathir : so as a first step i pray that nf stays with Shai’s level today
[11:16]   r m : @Kathir, already made a few points in NF options in Shai’s day range, now want to have more 🙂
[11:16]   Kathir : yeah need few more 🙂
[11:17]   Kathir : @RM from this range now bnf should be easier to trade i guess
[11:17]   Kathir : it is still trading below previous highs
[11:18]   Kathir : it will obey shais commands as well
[11:20]   r m : so you got a ceiling and floor in place for your double attacks on BNF? 🙂
[11:21]   Kathir : yes 🙂
[11:23]   Kathir : planning to build antilia house 🙂
[11:29]   Kathir : @RM ge now the diff between bnf aug sep is 75
[11:29]   Kathir : three days back 120
[11:29]   Kathir : 75-85 now
[11:34]   Kiran : lot of reds. Are these initiative or responsive ?
[11:34]   Kiran : just for understanding.
[11:36]   Shai : responsive
[11:37]   r m : @Kathir, 45 points in three days, not bad!
[11:37]   r m : you will need less margin too
[11:45]   Kathir : yes ge..
[11:50]   r m : looks like a perfectly balanced day so far
[11:53]   r m : the single prints in BNF happened at the open in a blink 🙂
[11:56]   Kathir : @Rm pdh nf?
[11:58]   r m : 7886
[11:58]   Kathir : ok thanks ..just 8 from here for yoy
[11:59]   Kathir : you
[12:04]   r m : not in nf trade now, only long in BNF with stop at pdh
[12:05]   Kathir : bnf pdh 450?
[12:05]   r m : 15468
[12:06]   Kathir : ok ge then we misssed one morning trade i think
[12:06]   r m : yes
[12:07]   Kathir : what will be the SL for that trade ge?
[12:07]   r m : just below PDH is 450 i guess 🙂
[12:07]   r m : either here or above IBH with stop at vwap
[12:08]   Kathir : ok thanks
[12:08]   r m : better here just in case BNF decides to make it a normal day 🙂
[12:11]   Kathir : but you did not give me enough time sir
[12:12]   Kathir : see 30 up 🙁
[12:12]   r m : true
[12:12]   Kathir : almost 75 % of my trgt 🙂
[12:12]   r m : bnf remained near 15510 for only 10 minutes 🙂
[12:13]   r m : last time it went below 500 up to 480
[12:14]   r m : but upside was same in previous two attempts aprox 555
[12:15]   r m : NF is making LH and LLs
[12:25]   Kathir : @RM bnf 555
[12:26]   r m : yes
[12:26]   r m : now europe should be the next cue
[12:27]   r m : S&P looks pretty happy
[12:27]   Kathir : sure now NF will look for any reason to go up or down
[12:27]   r m : yes
[12:28]   Kathir : indonesia iraq italy japn it doesnt matter which country it is
[12:28]   r m : reasons galore, it only needs a sharp mind to pick a suitable one matching one’s mood 🙂
[12:28]   Kathir : 🙂
[12:28]   r m : or matching market’s mood
[12:29]   r m : business channels are more like entertainment channels with folks dishing out reasons for every rise and fall in the market – hope they don’t believe in it themselve 😀
[12:35]   Kathir : lol
[12:50]   Shai : 12:50 Shai : More buyers in NF now
[13:09]   r m : 599
[13:16]   Shai : 15633- (11:11) Shai :100 points upside is there to 15640 and then 15876 is weekly tgt
[13:19]   r m : @Shai, what is the sl for 15876 view?
[13:21]   Shai : don’t buy here
[13:21]   r m : ok
[13:22]   Shai : lots of sellers entering
[13:22]   r m : Thanks
[13:22]   r m : buyers in NF now?
[13:22]   Shai : RM that will be today’s sl at close as it is still 2-3 sessions away
[13:23]   Shai : Today’s vwap at close as sl***
[13:23]   r m : yes, was thinking of going in with 15900CE 🙂
[13:23]   Shai : I think 16000 ce will be more liquid
[13:23]   r m : ok, thanks
[13:24]   Shai : 15800 was 65 this morning went to 100
[13:24]   r m : yes
[13:25]   Shai : In NF this blue may be yesterday’s shorts liquidating
[13:25]   r m : ok
[13:26]   Shai : 15630- 15712 spot belongs to the seller
[13:26]   Shai : trade small qty if looking at longs
[13:26]   r m : ok
[13:26]   Shai : previous tops in this range
[13:27]   r m : or perhaps can enter at close if vwap is not broken by then?
[13:27]   r m : and target not achieved today itself 😀
[13:28]   Shai : yes
[13:28]   r m : Thanks
[13:28]   Shai : 15640- 15650 was hypo estimate
[13:28]   r m : yes
[13:28]   Shai : was relatively easier 15540- 15640
[13:28]   Shai : Now it’s a tough act
[13:29]   r m : how to calculate targets Shai, any reading material available on that?
[13:30]   Shai : Go by previous single prints and HVN on charts
[13:30]   r m : ok, thanks
[13:30]   Shai : I just base on single prints and balance areas for quick / slow moves
[13:30]   Shai : oftem you have to put spot and fut together
[13:31]   r m : but then how do you calculate targets in virgin territory, like that 7916 for NF?
[13:31]   Shai : that is based on a break from balance
[13:31]   r m : ok
[13:32]   r m : so it is double the balance range or some ratio like that?
[13:33]   Shai : See I idetified 7782- 7656 as balance area
[13:33]   Shai : so 2IB principle again
[13:33]   r m : ok
[13:33]   Shai : 7908- 7916
[13:33]   Shai : rules are the same – only TF changes
[13:33]   Shai : we do it for intra and same applies to multi day auctions
[13:34]   r m : right
[13:34]   r m : Thanks
[13:34]   Shai : only in compos you have to identify if the auctin is same or changing
[13:34]   r m : ok
[13:35]   Shai : welcome 🙂
[13:36]   Shai : NF back in IB
[13:36]   Shai : it’s difficult to trade breakouts when profile is balancing
[13:38]   r m : yes, either the stop has to be very deep or one gets kicked out repeatedly 🙂
[13:39]   Shai : or not wait for a breakout and buy / sell using vwap to extreme
[13:39]   r m : ok
[13:43]   r m : assuming today
[13:45]   r m : assuming today’s vwap is protected and stays at 15540, 16K CE stop will be 16 for friday and target 95 (15876 NF)
[13:46]   Shai : yes sl for the view is 15470
[13:46]   r m : ok, then I’ll recalculate the stop 🙂
[13:46]   Shai : have to see buyers show up again at vwap/dpoc
[13:47]   r m : for 15470 stop till friday, stop is 10 bucks 🙂
[13:47]   Shai : ok
[13:48]   Shai : what about 15800?
[13:48]   r m : will check that too
[13:49]   Shai : 100 down- (13:22) Shai :lots of sellers entering
[13:51]   r m : for 15800CE stop would be 55 on friday and target 230
[13:52]   r m : oops, it is stop 31 and taget 192
[13:53]   Shai : ok thanks
[13:53]   r m : welcome
[13:53]   Shai : 15800 is better as it will be ITM
[13:53]   Shai : if tgt hits
[13:53]   r m : yes
[13:53]   Shai : 16000 will have more decay
[13:54]   r m : yes, also writers will be busy with 16K at that time
[13:59]   r m : today both buyer and seller present so all day types possible even now?
[14:01]   r m : i mean NV or Neutral
[14:03]   Shai : yes from here a neutral possible
[14:03]   Shai : but since it is balancing prefer a close at vwap/dpoc
[14:03]   r m : ok
[14:30]   Kathir : @RM the premium went down to disacount and then satrted climbing up..nf now 13 premium i guess.?
[14:31]   Kathir : discount
[14:31]   Kathir : how to take this
[14:31]   Kathir : shorts coming again
[14:31]   Kathir : /
[14:32]   r m : @Kathir, i am not able to work that out, i used think that premium is caused by heavy demand besides the normal reasons like cost of carry etc. )
[14:32]   r m : 🙂
[14:33]   Kathir : ok ge 🙂
[14:34]   r m : buyers are holding their ground in BNF
[14:34]   Kathir : buyers @ lords today..but they have to face another two test matches :0
[14:34]   Kathir : 🙂
[14:35]   r m : lol
[14:35]   Kathir : we are sure that they dont get out less than 100 all out
[14:35]   Kathir : in all innings after that
[14:37]   r m : that lords match was like a trending day, after that they consoldiated (balanced) 🙂
[15:00]   Kathir : lol
[15:03]   Kathir : @RM a day like this if bnf closes below ib high how to take it
[15:03]   Kathir : or even nf
[15:06]   r m : guess it shows that market is balancing, above PDH close should be positive though
[15:06]   Kathir : ok thanks
[15:06]   Kathir : red in bnf
[15:06]   Kathir : profit booking may be
[15:07]   r m : yep
[15:16]   Kathir : @Shai any pe ce calls for tomrw from here now
[15:17]   Shai : No Kathir – not at this close
[15:17]   Kathir : ok shai thanks
[15:17]   Shai : But tomorrow the 8000 ce and 7800 pe are great on exit of value and range
[15:18]   Shai : NF is balanced today – Orderflow shows that the upmove may be over but profile structure will confirm only tom
[15:19]   Shai : If we get a drive down and move below 7876 then upmove has run out
[15:19]   Shai : close coming near vwap/ dpoc
[15:24]   Kathir : big blue again in bnf
[15:28]   Shai : BNF lost steam from 15640
[15:28]   Shai : yesterday 9000+ buyers
[15:28]   Kathir : dpoc down now
[15:28]   Shai : have to see if they reamin today
[15:30]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂
[15:30]   Shai : Bye all
[15:30]   Shai : Have a nice eve
[15:30]   Kathir : yeah thanks and bye all 🙂