Price n Time

One of the better things we as profilers enjoy to do is to see the changing dynamics of the market relative to time.

In market profile, we get an excellent read on the market when we see Time on the Horizontal axis instead of price.In fact No study of the market is complete without understanding the movements of Price, Volume and Time.

At Vtrender we form our biases by looking at the intermediate time frame for the trend and understanding the role the smallest time frame player- the day time frame, plays with respect to that. We prefer to look at moves within a 3 month cycle- a preferred period of the NSE which operates contracts in a 90 day period.

The market becomes very easy to understand if you look at it from that time frame.

Here is a chart which shows Time Cycles for the Nifty Spot over the intermediate term.

Spot Nifty Price N Time

The IT cycle for each instrument is different and is comprised of daily and monthly cycles. Each Intermediate Term ( IT ) Time cycle lasts on an average of 84- 99 Calendar days. The approximate duration for a half daily cycle is 15 days. Most people call the daily cycle of the market a Lunar cycle and it is not surprising to see Traders look at New Moons and Full Moons to get a bias from the market.At the risk of alienating such readers, the actual reason which moves the markets is the daily cycle lows and highs.

In the chart above, the blue rectangles represent IT cycles. Each box has the nos of days at the top and the range of the market during that time. The days are depicted as actual sessions, hence you would get numbers from 65- 74 in place of calendar days.

The time cycles are more useful to measure bottoms of the market than tops.

A right translated cycle is the one where a top is formed to the right of the center of the IT cycle.This is an extremely bullish event and can lead to a parabolic rise in the markets.The third rectangle from the left is an example of a Right translated cycle.

A left Translated cycle on the other hand has a top to the left of center and can lead to a sharp move lower.We had a left translated cycle in the month of January this year.The translated cycles can be easily spotted through failed daily cycles.

The last intermediate term low was at 5182 spot on June 20th.We are near the end of the first daily cycle with a daily cycle high and low already in place.The current daily cycle should be over in the coming week.

The projection for the current IT cycle would put a high in the 5950-6000 zone in the next two months.This is considering that we have not topped out already at 5730. If the top is in place, then the market should swiftly move below 5444 in the first 15 days of the next daily cycle.However if recent highs are taken out in the next half cycle then we should easily see 59xx levels before September end. More Importantly the bigger picture would turn bullish for the next IT cycle due between October to January.