As we wait out a long weekend with major news events lined up across Europe and Greece in particular, let's take a look at what the profile charts reveal for activity this expiry.
First a weekly check-
Last week the profile was balanced ( Left of chart) . It's such profiles which tell us that a major move can happen in the market place.
Quite simply it's positioning for imbalance from a period of balance.
The move from the POC of last week was quick and was followed through all week to have a market which closed at the upper end of it's range.
The grey shaded areas on right show the structure to be a double distribution patten for the week. There are two possible ways in which a DD can play out for this expiry.
If we manage to open on Monday and hold above the current week's high then clearly we would be set for higher levels during the week. This goes in line with the theory that the market is operating above value and price is probing for acceptance higher.
The other possibility is that the market can move in the zone of today's open and the High volume point of Thursday and look for acceptance there.
If we look at the profile structure for this series, we find that this is looking as a higher possibility as far as value is concerned.
The above chart shows that the move of today is not value. and a rotation back seems to be having high odds at the moment.
Bear in mind that there is much headline risk from Europe and on Tuesday when we open, irrespective of what we see today, the price on the screen must be traded.
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