On a hot Saturday afternoon, I’ve decided to take potshots at my fellow bloggist and check out his theory on “NAV Management”.
I’ve known quite a few smart people who look at times of the year for trend changes or confirmation. The Thanksgiving Holiday in the US is one example when people have put all their “spare cash” to work in the markets often with positive gains.The assumption being that markets do not go down during that period.
So to put “NAV Management” to the test, I thought of nothing better than to see how it holds up in the charts.
Here’s a chart of the weekly Nifty for the past three years:
The close in the past three years for the month of March has been at the highs of the month. With three more days to go for this month-end, we are at the highs of the month in March.The only question remains, whether we keep these highs or roll-over from here.We will know in three days.
Those three years prove that these things happen.
Still being slightly skeptic, I’ve decided to put the theory to the test now with the SPX. Their calendar year ends in December, so let’s see what their markets have done in December.
So that is six times in seven occasions on two highly liquid exchanges, across continents !
Odds are, we see higher prices in the Nifty, maybe 5350 or more by Wednesday.
Now you be the judge of that.