The Neutral extreme of Friday was followed by a normal distribution today called the gaussian curve in market profile.
The distribution tolds us that the markets accepts 7790 as new value at least for today.
Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term :
The Friday May 16th range of 7639- 7182 looks like a completed bell curve now as the market has successfully auctioned out the entire range building volume.
The Updated bell of the July F is shown here : http://prntscr.com/3wrmyl
Short term :
Trend up from 7555 JulyF on 30th June. 1st support for this trend up for the current week lies at 7717 just below the huge buying zone of last week and then at 7647.
Observations in Monday’s session :
1) The market auctioned both sides of PDH from friday but established value exactly at pdh
2) Day type was Normal with a gaussian distribution
3) vwap of the day was at 7793.
Hypothesis for Tuesday :
Exit of value and range would provide the best risk reward for trades tomorrow. The auction should remain within the range of today for the most part but start of any imbalance is the next big trade
1) If we auction below 7768 tomorrow then the NF will likely go test 7737 and 7720/7708.
2) An auction above 7815 should take us to 7837 and then 7864
For both exit plays stops to be maintained at 7790.
BankNifty July F :
Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term :
Friday May16th huge range of 15888- 14418 June F provides a background to the entire moves we may see in the BNF for some time.
The updated auction of the JulyF is here : http://prntscr.com/3wrs9g
Short Term :
Short term balance established last week at 15470- 15660. The imbalance target is 15850 as long as we stay above 15650.
Observations in Monday’s session :
1) Trend day with open and closed at extremes
2) Pull back high at 15547
3) vwap of the trend day was at 15544 in line with the pull back high
4) Profile was inside Friday’s range
Hypothesis for Tuesday :
The open tomorrow to be watched for signs of continuation of the down auction or not
1) If we open above previous day lows then the auction should go look at 15535- 15545 region for unfinished business
2) Shorts can be initiated at 15540-50 with a stop of 25/35 points for a revisit to day lows early in the session
3) However if we cross above 15565 then BNF can go up to meet 15620 again.
4) Below day lows of 15455 the BNF can run down to 15361 and possibly 15212.