Tomorrow is friday the last session of the week and the first session of a new series.
The April series finished at the series highs but data showed that FII’s had reduced most of the longs they had carried into April from the previous series ( read http://vtrender.com/fiis-in-fno-at-end-of-april-series/)
Whilst this is not immediately negative it may point to a more cautious approach to the long side rather than the devil may care approach adopted for the long side through April.
Here are the May charts and the outlook for friday :
The NF profile chart shows an earlier sell attempt at 6928 attempted by OTF on 11/04 even as the market establishes value in this zone
The Projected move shown in pink is at resistance point of 6928 and levels of 6948/62 will continue to show supply overhead.
The OF chart shows the market trading above VAH for most of the session but supply coming at 6908.
The market should continue higher at the Open on Monday to test out the 6928 zone fully before a scale back to VAH possibly at 6904. The 80% rule can invite a fall below 6904 to 6888.
On the 1st day of the series our big ref line is at 6888 and the ability to stay above 6888 May F .
If we close below 6888 then it will invite a test of 6832 break of which can cause further falls upto 6740.
6888 is KRA for the day.
The BNF chart below shows an Open drive and a spike into the close.
The Profile chart is a 3-1-3 and the late spike will have to be validated by an open above the spike high of 13277.
Vwap of the trend day at 13175 is the most important number in BNF for tomorrow as it aslo co-incides with the VPOC.
IF VPOC breaks then BNF buyers will look to support the index at 13130 next and if that breaks too then liquidation will follow which should bring 13012 a drop of 128 points.
hence a conservative short is below 13130 with stops above 13179 for the mentioned 13012.
Shorts can also be taken below vpoc of 13175 with a small stop however bigger breakdown is only if 13130 breaks.
On the higher side as we finished in a spike, new longs will enter only above day high and will look to target 13360 marked in blue.