*** Shai **, Welcome to the Vtrender conference room!
[09:00] r m: Good Morning folks!
[09:01] Rahul Goel: Hello all GM
[09:01] Rahul Goel: hello rm
[09:02] Rahul Goel: so we have a european booster doze today monring
[09:02] r m: Hi Rahul 🙂
[09:03] Shai C: GM all
[09:04] Pasi C: GM all
[09:05] Ravi Sun: HAI SHAI, CAN U SEND PRIME LVLS FOR TODAY
[09:05] Shai C: Gm all
[09:06] Shai C: Ravi, pls do not use caps in the room
[09:06] Ravi Sun: ok
[09:06] Ravi Sun: by mstk
[09:06] r m: Hi Shai, Pasi, Ravi
[09:06] Ravi Sun: it has come
[09:06] Shai C: Prime levels are updated daily-
[09:06] Ravi Sun: hai gm to tall
[09:06] Ravi Sun: shai have u sent to my mail
[09:06] Pasi C: Hi rm
[09:06] Shai C: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aguuu7T3NhX2dG1YbTQ5RUUxS1ZDM09uVHBuVnpYZkE&pli=1#gid=3
[09:07] Shai C: Market happy with EU comments from now
[09:07] Shai C: es / euro/ sgx all up
[09:07] Shai C: resistance defined at 5205 spot is our first watch
[09:08] Rahul Goel: shai I need to know yesterday during close thr how were you able to say FII would have sold big whereas tht could have been just expiry volatility
[09:08] Kris 123: GM All:)
[09:08] Shai C: Ravi, prime levels are not sent on email. U have to open above link daily
[09:09] Pasi C: rm r u able to login NOW?
[09:09] Rahul Goel: and the other can we sell into today morning highs since were not confident of the close we got yesterday at close
[09:09] r m: Hi Kris 🙂
[09:09] r m: Yes Pasi
[09:10] Pasi C: ok@rm
[09:11] Kris 123: Hi Rm 🙂
[09:15] Shai C: Rahul, need to watch for OTF
[09:18] Kris 123: @Rm – early in the morning all Shai's friends are online – with all those black flags!
[09:18] r m: demonstrarting against bulls? 😀
[09:19] Kris 123: no – they are filling their quota!!
[09:19] r m: ok
[09:21] Kris 123: Look at the timing – yesterday is our expiry – and we cant run away from 5100 writers – so – announcement came early morning – world markets!!
[09:21] Kris 123: Any doubts on it being the same keyboard every where in the world? 🙂
[09:22] r m: 🙂
[09:22] Kris 123: Shai's program is suddenly scared of everything – sending tweets at the rate of knots!
[09:26] Shai C: Looks like even BSE has a problem
[09:26] Shai C: So I'm not alone
[09:27] Shai C: ** Please note that all the BSE pending orders are cancelled. Only square off are allowed. Fresh orders are not allowed. This may take few minutes.**
[09:28] Kris 123: https://twitter.com/cvkmohan/status/218553704738070528
[09:29] Kris 123: It is a positional trade – and – will update the trade via twitter 🙂
[09:33] Shai C: 5215 IB low is first supp
[09:35] Shai C: Mkt is in OAOR
[09:42] Pasi C: price of ALGO it visible as soon as its generated@shai
[09:42] Pasi C: *is not visible
[09:43] Shai C: 5256 algo
[09:44] Pasi C: this happens everytime@shai
[09:44] Shai C: yes
[09:44] Pasi C: isnt it adjustable?
[09:44] Shai C: Euro is not very enthusiastic
[09:44] Shai C: highs at 1.2643 not covered since the news
[09:51] Shai C: technically the mkt is breaking out for it's consolidation
[09:51] Shai C: should attrct more liquidity
[09:52] Shai C: which means that sellers have to do the work
[09:52] Shai C: a close above 5205 will be bullish today
[09:52] Kris 123: @Shai – 5190 is the break out is what you were saying in the post – so – have we broken out? – Do you believe in false breakouts? 🙂
[09:52] Rahul Goel: kris can this be an IB extension trade
[09:53] Shai C: Kris every news driven move is suspect
[09:53] Kris 123: yes Rahul – technically yes.
[09:53] Shai C: but currently I'm looking at prices on screen
[09:53] Shai C: No sign of the seller yet
[09:54] Shai C: [09:52] Shai C: which means that sellers have to do the work
[09:55] Rahul Goel: thanks kris will try a smal short here
[09:55] Kris 123: @Shai – true – seller will appear only when the retail buyer comes in 🙂
[09:55] Kris 123: @Rahul – IB is another 17 min – away – some more extension is also possible 🙂
[09:56] Shai C: 25 point prem from 5 yesterday
[09:57] Shai C: If the breakout fails then we look at 4975 not 5100
[09:57] Shai C: just 40 mins, lots can happen
[09:57] Shai C: europe can throw some more surprises
[09:58] Shai C: Merkel can say something later which can induce a crash
[10:01] Kris 123: @Shai – I am looking at 49XX – it has been a long time – we concurred on something – even conditionally 🙂
[10:01] Shai C: 10310 is immediate tgt on BN
[10:01] Kris 123: @Rm – looks I am making my baby steps into trading – and passed LKG 🙂
[10:01] r m: lol
[10:02] r m: Kris, the Lord of penuts 🙂
[10:02] r m: peanuts
[10:03] Shai C: Longs from the open at 5235 can part book here at 5268
[10:03] Kris 123: let us watch NF carefully now – we are at 10.05!
[10:03] Kris 123: another 10 is what I am looking at – let us see!
[10:03] j w: 5268 is what?
[10:04] Shai C: 5271 is a small LVN
[10:04] j w: ok
[10:04] Shai C: 5264 spot/ 5290 NF is the obj if we carry abv
[10:05] Shai C: Bn longs from 10190 can also part book here
[10:06] Shai C: Big IB
[10:06] Shai C: 56 points
[10:07] Shai C: we are past all prime levels, hence the advise for part book
[10:08] Shai C: the seller is still MIA
[10:08] Pasi C: buying 5100 PE@47 longs may be tired atleast for now
[10:12] Pasi C: exiting PE
[10:12] Pasi C: will eneter @5290
[10:12] Pasi C: *reenter
[10:12] Shai C: shorts be careful, this can run up on a squeeze
[10:13] Shai C: remember the selelr at 5190 was big
[10:13] Shai C: *seller
[10:14] Kris 123: @Shai – we are below 1.2626 euro again!
[10:16] Shai C: we never got up after that initial spike
[10:16] Shai C: but the euro was very pessimistic ahead of the summit
[10:16] Shai C: so shorts coming out
[10:17] Shai C: was closer to 1.23
[10:19] Pasi C: new buy printed in NF?@Shai
[10:19] Shai C: Summit statement- http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/131359.pdf
[10:20] Shai C: Ignore that last Nifty message
[10:24] Kris 123: @Rahul – I guess now you can use day high as SL for your trade!
[10:25] Rahul Goel: yes i am doin g tht
[10:25] Rahul Goel: did an avg at 5278
[10:29] Kris 123: @Shai – what is the state of us vix?
[10:30] Kris 123: Our VIX shows complacency – one pre-requisite met 🙂
[10:31] r m: vix is down more than 6% Kris, in what way it is showing complacency?
[10:32] Kris 123: Isnt VIX fall asssociated with complacency in traders? 🙂
[10:32] r m: US VIX is at 21.32
[10:32] r m: down1.61%
[10:32] r m: 🙂
[10:38] Shai C: FDN updated – https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aguuu7T3NhX2dG1YbTQ5RUUxS1ZDM09uVHBuVnpYZkE&pli=1#gid=3
[10:44] Shai C: a move into the yellow upper value is the first sign that buyers are pausing
[10:45] Shai C: currently 5269/ 10244
[10:45] Shai C: vwap is certain once it enters developing value
[10:53] r m: dvah shifts up 🙂
[10:54] Shai C: dpoc up
[10:54] Shai C: guess game is over to locals
[10:55] Shai C: OTF may have called it a day and a weekend
[10:55] Shai C: 60 point IB
[10:55] Shai C: sellers to emerge from their holes now
[10:56] Shai C: when the cat ios away– the mice begin their play
[10:56] r m: 🙂
[10:59] Kris 123: If it does happen – it is so ironic that – a rally born on the second trading day of June series – in the midst of depressing bad news allround – ends with good news/rumor – on the second trading day of July series 🙂
[10:59] r m: second day of July will be on Monday
[11:00] Shai C: Kris has spelt his intentions clearly
[11:00] r m: yes
[11:00] Shai C: All please note : Kris was bull in June and now bear in July
[11:00] r m: he will sue you if he does not get his 49XX 🙂
[11:00] Shai C: we all know what happened in June
[11:01] Shai C: Kris hope the view is for the series and not popcorn. Please correct me
[11:01] Kris 123: @Shai – yes – the view is for series – popcorn trading is different!
[11:02] Shai C: I take you seriously you know that
[11:02] Shai C: there's something he reads in all hos OI math, which lesser mortals cannot comprehend
[11:03] Shai C: on another note, it's difficult to see cash buying after a 130 point run up in one hour
[11:04] Kris 123: I dont joke when I state views – you know that! – I can be wrong – but dont mislead – isnt it? 🙂
[11:04] Shai C: I certainly will not take a long swing view after this movement in futures
[11:05] Shai C: the right environment for a trde is that region around 5200- 5230 where if you are wrond you just reverse the trade and ride the opp side
[11:05] Kris 123: If my reading is right – July should be similar to November'11!
[11:05] Shai C: nov was up first 2 days?
[11:08] Kris 123: Rm is the best one to answer it!
[11:08] r m: lol
[11:09] Kris 123: @Shai – it has been my observation that – the first 2 trading days of a new series are very important – generally the highs or lows they make – stay for the series –
[11:12] Shai C: true. but how do you know which one after an hour on the first day?
[11:14] Kris 123: The general nature of rollovers specify what is coming in – mainly – the range at which the rollovers happened
[11:15] Kris 123: Actually Rm updates the new series rollovers – once the new series OI crosses 50L –
[11:15] r m: this time above 50% of the rollovers happened in the last three days?
[11:15] Kris 123: Add to that – the option writing at various strikes – and the quantum of buy vs sell in options by FII.
[11:16] Kris 123: when more selling happens – I look for some range bound movements – and when more buying – we are going to have some trending movement.
[11:17] Shai C: all the roillover happened between 5070- 5170
[11:17] Kris 123: so they got their mandatory 200 points by first day of the series 🙂
[11:18] Kris 123: It is one key board after all 🙂
[11:20] Shai C: Note : 1)Silver future values are rolled over to September on alerts. 2) Copper M values also rolled to august future
[11:21] Shai C: Maybe 100 more still left
[11:21] Shai C: a dip to 5200 will be bought
[11:24] Kris 123: @Shai – who – the retail will buy – isnt it? 🙂
[11:29] Shai C: Kris, lines are getting blurred. Retail is ionto writing and OTF doiung scalping
[11:29] Shai C: 🙂
[11:29] r m: 🙂
[11:29] Shai C: Big money is being spent on algos which can give 10 points
[11:30] Shai C: europe jumping up
[11:30] Kris 123: yes Shai – I guess you can see the transformation – Kris the popcorn hunter giving positional views 🙂
[11:30] Shai C: shorts have to be careful again
[11:31] Kris 123: @Shai – I cant see sellers coming in today – it will be too easy to predict.
[11:31] Kris 123: Another day at highs – where put premium gets lost fast! – is one possibility that I see.
[11:39] Shai C: USDINR in the zone 56.45- 50 : http://www.vtrender.com/content/usdinr-july
[11:41] Shai C: markets rallying as if europe's problems are over
[11:41] Shai C: 🙂
[11:41] Ravi Sun: shai can I buy nf now
[11:41] Shai C: there was a tweet mentioning that the record was 4 hours + for a rise
[11:43] Shai C: Major part of the move is done Ravi
[12:05] Shai C: did spot hit 5265
[12:06] r m: spot high 5264.05
[12:06] Shai C: 5265 spot/ 5290 NF both HVN's
[12:06] r m: ok, thanks
[12:06] Shai C: thanks RM
[12:16] Shares Trader: Hello Guys…
[12:16] Shares Trader: wht a day to miss 🙁
[12:17] Pasi C: Hi ST
[12:17] Shares Trader: whenevr im not in mkt..mkt runs hard..why so ?
[12:17] Pasi C: even we dint get most of the up move
[12:17] Shares Trader: Hi Pasi
[12:18] Shares Trader: Shai/RM/Kris ..Hello
[12:19] r m: Hi ST 🙂
[12:25] Shares Trader: hw to chk chat history ?
[12:29] r m: i can mail you, it has to be copied from here
[12:29] Shares Trader: oh..leave it thn…thnx anyways
[12:29] Shares Trader: is thr Algo in BN
[12:30] r m: looks like one at the very top
[12:30] Shares Trader: ys n very small bar too
[12:32] Shares Trader: looks lk sellers to me..
[12:32] r m: yes
[12:34] Shares Trader: whr is Shai ? whr is next HVzone ? 5305- to ?
[12:42] r m: ami is showing Naked POC at 5304, 5340 and 5382
[12:45] Dr Bansal *: Dear Shai,Kindly replace ICICI Bank chart with Crude oil.
[12:46] Ravi Sun: for 10 pnts is there any sgnls now on nf shai
[12:46] Ravi Sun: on sell side
[12:55] Shai **: test
[12:55] Shai **: coming back in 10 mins
[12:56] r m: ok
[12:57] Dr Bansal *: thanx a lot.
[12:59] Dr Bansal *: continue with crude oil.
[13:00] Shares Trader: RM ..20k volm bar in BN or 16 k ?
[13:02] j w: test coming back in 10 mins or shai?
[13:06] r m: @ST, not sure, used to be 17.5 k earlier
[13:07] Shai C: back
[13:07] Shai C: Dr Bansal- the lower pane can have any instruments of your choice
[13:08] Shai C: ravi try a small short below 5274 for 5264
[13:08] Dr Bansal *: how
[13:11] Shai C: I have to add that is
[13:13] Shai C: ST, bar size is 17 k
[13:15] Shai C: there's an LVN at 5226 which will be the SL for all swing longs done today
[13:15] Shai C: 5182 is breakdown point
[13:16] Shai C: 5111- 5114 saw buying efforts in july future all last week
[13:16] Shai C: *all this week
[13:17] Shai C: 5247-14 are single prints
[13:19] Shai C: let's see if the seller becomes aggressive now
[13:19] Dr Bansal *: crude oil trading between 4506-4520
[13:21] Shares Trader: thnx Shai
[13:23] Shai C: Profile is P shaped
[13:23] Shai C: short covering only
[13:23] Kris 123: thanks Shai – you are playing Carnatic Music to my ears – as good as Balamurali Krishna 🙂
[13:23] r m: 🙂
[13:24] Shai C: 5265/ 5296/ 5320/ 5360 are the HVN's in spot
[13:25] Shai C: 10356/ 10500/ 10604 are HVN's in BN spot
[13:25] Shares Trader: Shai, is it good idea to write 5300 Ces ? as 5300-5360 HVZ
[13:26] Shai C: for the weekend yes, but only small qty
[13:26] Shares Trader: n if we get retrace pairing it with 5200 PE short ?
[13:26] Shai C: I'll suggest write it once we go below 5267 today
[13:27] Shai C: this can still close at highs on nervous short covering
[13:27] Shares Trader: ok
[13:28] Shai C: actually if we get a pull back today I'll be putting up a buy straddle
[13:28] Shai C: buy 5300 ce and 5200 pe
[13:29] Shai C: as a carry trade
[13:30] Shai C: you can also put on a buy 10300 and sell 10500 in bn
[13:30] Shares Trader: as ths move is Breakout ? rt
[13:30] Shai C: yes imbalance and low vix
[13:30] Pasi C: [10:01] Shai C: 10310 is immediate tgt on BN
[13:31] Shares Trader: 5300/5200 Strangle costs 162
[13:34] Shai C: yes
[13:35] Shai C: risk of a pull back is there
[13:35] Shai C: to go back and touch the balance zone
[13:41] Shai C: Mkt at HVN
[13:41] Shai C: 10310/ 5290 fut
[13:41] Shai C: 5265 spot
[13:43] Deepak C : shai whenever u have time also give logic behind ur strategy [13:28] Shai C: actually if we get a pull back today I'll be putting up a buy straddle OR [13:28] Shai C: buy 5300 ce and 5200 pe
[13:44] Shai C: Deepak We are bullish as we have broken out of a balance zone
[13:44] Shai C: but the move is extended on a shorter time frame
[13:45] Shai C: hence looking to hedge long exposure with a put
[13:45] Shai C: other ways of doing it would be to buy a 5300 call and sell 5400 call
[13:47] Shai C: there is upside, but also a risk of a pull back
[13:49] Deepak C : thanx a lot,i got a bit,say something about selection of strike
[13:50] Shai C: the 5300- 5400 is a bull call spread where we are certain of direction
[13:51] Shai C: we buy closer strike and sell far away
[13:51] Shai C: the 5300- 5200 is a buy strangle where we offset risk in direction by taking a put
[13:52] Shai C: the 10300- 10500 is also bull call spread where direction is certain
[13:53] Shai C: all are swing trades and not intra
[13:54] Shai C: dpoc moving up now in BN
[13:54] Deepak C : thnx for nice xplntn, i m going thru lessons on option so that i have a quicker understanding of what u r doing, but till then pl. keep on xplaning, tnx
[13:56] Shai C: If you combine market profile and options, the combination is many times unbeatable
[13:57] Pasi C: which lessoons Deepak
[13:58] Deepak C : materials from net on options, pasi
[13:59] Pasi C: any good stuff u found?
[14:00] Deepak C : i ve searched for books from 4shared, and also traderji
[14:00] Shai C: 1.5 hours to go- short covering or profit booking?
[14:01] Shai C: both have equal odds from this HVN
[14:02] Shares Trader: may b profit booking
[14:02] Deepak C : shai now the ques is when to exit from abv strategy, i ve taken strangle
[14:05] Shai C: around 5380 NF or below 5205
[14:06] Shares Trader: im saying profit bookign cz..looks lk thr is profit bookign in BN
[14:06] Shares Trader: near 10300
[14:08] Shares Trader: algos i mean
[14:11] Shai C: 10240 is vwap and a tgt
[14:18] Shai C: es and euro dropping
[14:18] Shai C: markets open in europe and chatter should start about now
[14:26] Shai **: [10:55] Shai C: OTF may have called it a day and a weekend
[14:31] Shai C: BN algos
[14:31] Shai C: usdinr free fall below 56.45
[14:33] Ravi Sun: shai can I go long now
[14:35] Shai C: sl is deep at vwap
[14:36] Pasi C: Ravi is there any signal on twitter?please wait till u get any buy/sell call
[14:36] Ravi Sun: ok pasi
[14:36] Ravi Sun: last 3 session for me no trades
[14:36] Ravi Sun: just observing
[14:37] Pasi C: we should not create trades just take one as and when it comes@Ravi
[14:38] Ravi Sun: yes. will strt trding from mndy
[14:38] Shai C: Ravi, learning when not to trade is as imp as learning when to trade
[14:38] Pasi C: Hope ll your twitter problems r resolved now@Ravi
[14:38] Pasi C: *all
[14:41] Ravi Sun: resolved pasi
[14:41] Ravi Sun: last message on tweet deck is usd inr
[14:41] Ravi Sun: right
[14:42] Ravi Sun: yes sahi
[14:42] Pasi C: Gold
[14:58] Shai C: crude and USDINR falling together is great news for the Indian economy
[15:03] Pasi C: looks its short covering
[15:06] Shai C: yes no chance for shorts today
[15:25] Rahul Goel: shai can we take 5300 CE and sell 5400 CE
[15:25] Rahul Goel: consiering have no position presently
[15:29] Shai C: yes
[15:30] Shai C: we will reduce the 5400 ce if the mkt takes support at 5230 on mon
[15:30] Shai C: and ride the 5300 ce
[15:30] Shai C: strong close/ profit booking at the end
[15:30] r m: Thanks Shai, bye all, have a happy weekend 🙂
[15:30] Shai C: Bye all
[15:30] Rahul Goel: Thanks Shai
[15:31] Shai C: 5288/ 10326
