It’s expiry week and another holiday shortened one.
When we looked at the April series in our last post dated 6th April we spoke about a range bound series of April : http://vtrender.com/premium/weekly-update-7th-april-to-11th-april/
Not much has changed since then and the 2 weekly friday closes have been less than 5 points out.
Nifty series of April :
The vwap of the series is at 6754 and the developing value sits at 6731- 6810 well over the value established in May.
The chart projects a range narrowed to 6872- 6636 from the 1st week and volumes have not supported any big vertical moves till then.
We have seen in previous posts on how a seller has stepped in near 6845 and 6837 and kept supply going near 6810.
The dVAH of 6810 is hence important for the coming May series for the buyer to note.
BankNifty series of April :
The April series of BNF has a vwap at 12756 and a developing VAH of 12840.
The series has projected 13149- 12363 as range on current volumes.
Early last week the BNF broke through the 12900 support zone to look for new buyers near 12500.
The conviction of these buyers will be tested on a move above 12900 where the BNF can again do 13150 and possibly higher.
For Monday :
The NF showed a triple distribution trend like pattern on Thursday which reversed the double distribution seen a day before on wed as the market once again traded above vwap and VAH
We spoke about a move above 6742 inviting short covering and it is precisely what played out.
The 3 different auctions are marked as 6782- 6806/ 6763-6741 and 6717- 6702
Weakness can be seen in NF on monday when we come lower than 6782 where it will cover the single print anomalies till 6774.
However if 6774 breaks then the market can weaken again to 6751/6743.
On the upside there is still excess seen at 6828 and is therefore first resistance above 6806.
A trade above 6828 will mean 6858 and if that is overcome then expiry will come at higher side near 6905/ 6918
The BNF profile shows a trend like structure with a pull back low in place at 12630 and vwap of 12725.
12770 was the previous day’s high and the first support for the BNF for Monday.
There is no chance the BNF can go lower till 12770 is protected tomorrow. However an auction below 12770 can bring yvwap of 12725 and even test pull back low of 12630.
On upsides there is excess at 12920 and if BNF crosses that it will go back to 13026/ 13140 and .