Weekly charts (07th to 11th September 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (07th to 11th Sep 2020)

Spot Weekly – 11464 [ 11493 / 11185 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile represents a big ‘b’ shape long liquidation one with the stem from 11602 to 11794 which would be the supply zone for the rest of the month and had a prominent POC at 11466 which would be the immediate reference on the upside. This week’s Value was overlapping to lower at 11376-11466-11544 but the close below VAL means Nifty remains weak with immediate reference on the downside being the multi-day FA of 11290 below which it could test the daily VPOCs of 11206 / 11116 & 11045 in the coming week

Nifty made an ORR (Open Rejection Reverse) start on Monday as it got rejected from previous week’s VAL and broke below the FA of 11290 while making a low of 11252 in the IB (Initial Balance) itself. The auction however could not extend the range further negating the bearish open as it formed a balance closing as a Normal Day while making a marginal new high of 11381 into the close which indicated that the weak sellers were losing control and this was confirmed on Tuesday as Nifty left a buying tail in the IB and went on to make multiple REs (Range Extension) higher but left poor highs at 11437 which was a sign that it was the buyers who were getting exhausted and this led to a big liquidation move in the second half of the day as the auction not only probed into the morning buying tail but went to make new lows for the day closing in a spike as it completed the 80% Rule in Monday’s Value leaving a Neutral Extreme Day down. Wednesday saw a rare follow up to a Neutral Extreme profile in form of a big gap down of almost 100 points as Nifty made new lows for the week at 11207 at open but saw good profit booking by the sellers are it gave a bounce back to 11281 in the ‘A’ period itself and started to form a balance with a failed attempt to break lower in the ‘F’ period where it made new lows of 11185 but was rejected back into the IB. The auction gave the third spike in 3 days this week as it made new highs of 11298 in the closing minutes confirming a FA (Failed Auction) at lows. Nifty tagged the 1 ATR objective of 11314 with a gap up open on Thursday and went on to form a 3 IB day on the upside as it completed the 2 ATR target of 11444 also while making new highs of 11464 for the week right near previous week’s POC. Friday saw a strong open as the auction stayed above previous day’s POC and made new highs for the week at 11493 in the ‘A’ period but just like the way it started the week, Nifty ended also with a Normal Day with a failed attempt to break lower as it left similar lows near 11420 and closed around the prominent POC of 11458.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

The weekly profile is a Neutral Extreme one with overlapping to lower Value at 11310-11412-11466 with a close near the VAH so will need to stay above it in the coming week for a probe towards the VPOC of 11556, the recent swing high of 11585 and above it 11693. On the downside, getting accepted below 11458 could lead to a test of the VPOCs of 11413 & 11236.

Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs to sustain above 11466 for a rise to 11507 / 11556*-587 & 11611-654
B) The auction staying below 11458 could test 11413*-395 / 11360-43 & 11290-236*

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 11654, Nifty can probe higher to 11693-714 / 11742-778 & 11817-837*
D) Below 11236, the auction can fall further to 11206*-185 / 11131 & 11075-045*

NF (Weekly Profile)

11467 [ 11487 / 11202 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile resembles a long liquidation ‘b’ shape with overlapping Value at 11412-11484-11580 but has closed well below the VAL indicating weakness so the PLR for the coming week remains to the downside

NF continued the weakness mentioned above as it gave an OTD (Open Test Drive) down on Monday probing below previous week’s low in the IB (Initial Balance) while it made a low of 11266 but could not find fresh supply resulting in negation of the drive as the auction went on to scale above VWAP & make a RE (Range Extension) on the upside making a high of 11393. The buyers remained in control on Tuesday as NF made a OTF (One Time Frame) move higher till late afternoon as it got back into previous week’s Value and looked set to tag the weekly POC of 11484 but got stalled at 11447 where it left poor highs indicating exhaustion and this led to a big liquidation move into the close as the auction negated the entire day’s upmove and in face went on to make a RE lower leaving a Neutral Extreme Down Day. There was a rare follow up to a Neutral Extreme profile in the form of a gap down open on Wednesday marking new lows for the week at 11215 in the IB after which it remained in a narrow range for the first couple of hours. NF then made an attempt to break lower as it tagged 11202 but was swiftly rejected and this led to a good move on the upside which was a mix of short covering plus initiative buying as the auction confirmed a daily FA at lows and went on to trend higher for the next day where it completed the 2 ATR objective of 11468 to the dot. Friday saw the auction tagging previous week’s POC & the HVN of 11485 as it made highs of 11487 in the IB but there was no fresh demand seen due to which NF remained inside the IB all day while an attmept to break lower got rejected resulting in a probable multi-day FA at 11415 which would be the reference for the coming week.

Value for the week was overlapping to lower at 11320-11424-11464 and acceptance above 11485 in the coming week could lead to a test of previous week’s HVN of 11564 and the extension handle of 11602. On the downside, break of 11415 can bring lower levels of the daily VPOCs of 11355 & 11270.


BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (07th to 11th Sep 2020)
Spot Weekly – 22480 [ 23109 / 22080 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile represents a ‘b’ shape with a prominent POC at 23660 plus a spike lower with which means long liquidation happening in this index on a big scale and even though the weekly Value was overlapping to higher at 23480-23660-24140, the close was much below the Value and this could lead to further downside in the coming week once the HVN of 22811 is taken out with the weekly VPOC of 22290 being the next reference

BankNifty opened the week with a freak low of 22776 right in the opening minute after which it was rejected from Friday’s prominent POC of 23094 as it made a high of 23109 in the IB on Monday and was forming a ‘p’ shape profile for the day before it spiked lower into the close as it made new lows of 22716 leaving a prominent POC at 22970. Tuesday saw an OAIR start as the auction continued to form a balance around 22970 for most part of the day but once again closed in a spike on the downside leaving a Neutral Extreme Day as it made a low of 22641 and continued this imbalance on Wednesday with a gap down of 257 points as it moved away from the 2-day balance making multile REs lower as BankNifty not only tagged the weekly VPOC of 22290 but went on to hit 22080 in the ‘H’ period which also stopped the downside probe as the day’s profile ended in a ‘b’ shape with poor lows and the POC at 22198. The auction opened with a gap up on Thursday and continued to probe higher making couple of REs higher but left poor highs at 22678 which was the Neutral Extreme zone of Tuesday and rejection from here triggered a big liquidation move on the downside resulting in a late RE lower in the ‘I’ period as it made new lows for the day at 22225 stopping just short of the yPOC of 22198 after which it went on to close exactly at the open price of 22466 leaving a perfect Neutral Centre Day. Friday gave a strong open saw a swift rejection from PDH as the auction left a selling tail in the IB which changed the PLR to the downside resulting in multiple REs lower as BankNifty even broke below PDL as it made a low of 22205 but once again stopped right before the VPOC of 22198 resulting in a short squeeze in the closing 90 minutes as it retraced the entire fall from the A period and tested the morning selling tail to tag 22518 before closing the week with another ‘b’ shape profile but an overlapping POC on daily at 22395 which would be the immediate reference in the coming week.

The weekly profile resembles a Double Distribution with the first 2 days forming a balance with the HVN at 22975 after which the auction moved away from this balance to the downside forming another 3-day balance with the HVN at 22395. This week’s Value was completely lower at 22370-22970-23100 and the coming week could see a balance being formed in the low volume zone between the 2 HVNs mentioned above before BankNifty decides to move away from one of them.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to stay above 22530 for a probe to 22600-725 / 22777-890 / 22975* / 23029-110 & 23208-275
B) Accepting below 22426, the auction could test 22350 / 22296-198* / 22110-017* / 21960-886 & 21828*-767

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 23275, BankNifty can probe higher to 23333-410 / 23480-559 / 23690*-774 / 23830-928 & 24025-051
D) Below 21767, lower levels of 21673-609 / 21566*-486 / 21403-300 / 21244-184 & 21093-021 could come into play

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

22480 [ 23109 / 22080 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile has mostly higher Value at 23500-23700-24160 but resembles a long liquidation profile with a spike close of 23453 to 22854 which would be the immediate reference for the coming week for a probe lower towards 22800 / 22280 / 21984 & 21595

BNF opened on Monday in previous week’s spike zone and probed lower as it tagged the first objective of this week at 22800 in the IB itself & formed a 2-day balance with an overlapping POC at 23000 as it made a lower low of 22655 on Tuesday from where it moved away with a gap down on Wednesday as it went on to tag the the weekly VPOC of 22280 while making a low of 22129. However, it ended the day with a ‘b’ shape profile with a prominent POC at 22250 indicating exhaustion in the down move. The auction gave a retracement to 22725 on Thursday and remained in this range for the rest of the week forming a nice 3-day balance to end the week at 22540.

The weekly profile resembles a DD with the upper balance at 22869-23000-23051 and the lower distribution at 22241-22417-22517. This week’s Value was completely lower at 22401-22995-23076 but staying above 22517, BNF could make an attempt to tag the HVN of 23000 in the coming week. On the downside, break of 22250 on good volumes could see a fresh leg lower.