Weekly Charts (11th to 15th January 2021) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (04th to 07th January 2021)

Spot Weekly – 14434 [ 14653 / 14358 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a trending one on the upside with completely higher Value at 14061-14193-14217 and has tails at both ends hence the immediate reference for the coming week would be the zone of 14322 to 14367′

Nifty opened higher on Monday hitting new ATH (All Time High) of 14479 in the IB (Initial Balance) but could not extend further which resulted in a probe lower in the C period but got rejected taking support above previous week’s spike close of 14322 to 14367. The auction then made another attempt to break below the IB in the ‘F’ period but once again got rejected confirming that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) was to the upside after which it made an OTF move into the close hitting new highs of 14498 and in the process confirmed a FA at 14383. Tuesday saw Nifty forming a Double Distribution Trend Day Up as it completed the 1 ATR objective of 14563 from the FA and continued this imbalance on Wednesday with a gap up open where it made a high of 14653 but the upmove looked exhaused as it stayed in a very narrow IB range of just 34 points and this lack of demand led to a trending move lower of 218 points as the auction made a low of 14436 stalling just above the 11th Jan VPOC of 14430 which meant that the buyers were back in this zone as could be seen in the responsive buying tail from 14484 to 14436 and this led to a quick bounce back to 14580 into the close of the day. Nifty opened with a probe lower on Thursday as it tested the buying tail and got rejected from 14471 from where it reversed the probe to the upside till it got rejected from just below previous day’s SOC (Scene Of Crime) at 14620 where it left a PBH at 14617 before closing the day at the prominent POC of 14580 leaving an inside bar on the daily and a hat-trick of days with overlapping Value. Friday open saw an initiative move away from this balance as the auction left a selling tail in the IB from 14551 to 14617 forming a large 143 point range IB and still went on to make multiple REs lower as it re-visited the FA of 14383 and made new lows for the week at 14358 after which it left a small tail at lows till 14398 before closing at 14434. The weekly profile is a well balanced one with completely higher Value at 14454-14526-14586 but for the first time in several weeks has closed below the weekly Value so the PLR for the coming week would remain to the downside till it remains below 14454.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs a drive above 14461 for a probe to 14526 / 14580 / 14641 / 14702 / 14743 & 14775
B) Accepting below 14401 could lead to a test of 14341 / 14289 / 14244 / 14193 / 14157 & 14100

NF (Weekly Profile)

14458 [ 14660 / 14375 ]

NF opened the week with a gap up above the spike close of 14338 to 14379 on Monday and remained in a narrow range all day before confirming a FA at 14401 which triggered a trending move higher on Tuesday in form of a Double Distribution Trend Day Up as the auction completed the 1 ATR objective of 14574 and went on to make a high of 14624. This imbalance continued on Wednesday with another higher open but saw exhaustion coming in as NF formed similar highs of 14660 in the IB and this led to a big liquidation move of 184 points with the auction retracing the entire rise of Tuesday as it made a low of 14476 but left a buying tail at lows from 14521 to 14476 which indicated that the demand was coming back in this zone as it climbed back to close around the 2-day overlapping POC of 14600. Thursday began with a move lower as the buying tail got tested with NF taking support at 14505 after which it reversed the probe to the upside for the rest of the day getting back into previous day’s Value and completing the 80% Rule while making high of 14644 leaving an inside day both in terms of range & value along with a close at the dPOC of 14626. Friday saw an Open Test Drive away from this POC to the downside as the auction left an initiative selling tail in the IB from 14558 to 14623 and went on to revisit the FA of 14401 in ‘T+4’ Days and also close the weekly gap as it made a low of 14375 resulting in profit booking by the shorts which led to a bounce back to 14474 into the close. The weekly profile is a Neutral One with completely higher Value at 14478-14600-14628 but the close below Value means the PLR for the coming week would be on the downside for a probe towards the daily VPOC of 14320 & the weekly VPOC of 14222 once it negates the singles from 14410. On the upside, NF would need to sustain above 14478 for a probable test of 14531 & the daily VPOC of 14626.


BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (04th to 07th January 2021)
Spot Weekly – 32247 [ 32719 / 31725 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a Trending One higher with multiple distributions and completely higher Value at 31350-32110-32250 but also has a small tail at top from 32221 to 32298 which needs to be negated for a probe towards the 1 ATR target of 32370 from the monthly FA of 28977 and for new All Time Highs of 32744 in the coming week. On the downside, the prominent weekly POC of 32110 would be the immediate reference below which the important levels would be the daily VPOC of 31823 & the extension handle of 31510

BankNifty opened right in the previous week’s selling tail of 32221 to 32298 and was swiftly rejected confirming an ORR (Open Rejection Reverse) start as it got back into previous week’s Value and drove lower for the first 3 periods falling by 452 points to make a low of 31837 stopping just above the daily VPOC of 31823 which was also the low for the day as it formed a ‘b’ shape profile with a prominent POC at 32016. The auction opened lower on Tuesday and went on to break below 31823 as it made new lows for the week at 31725 in the opening minutes but left a small buying tail in the IB which signalled the end of the downmove after which it remained in a narrow range till the ‘E’ period forming a ‘p’ shape profile. The ‘F’ period then saw initiative buying coming in the form of an extension handle at 31948 as BankNifty blasted away on the upside with the help of couple of 200 pointers in the ‘F’ & ‘G’ periods as it left another extension handle at 32148 and completed the 1 ATR objective of 32370 from the monthly FA while making a high of 32398 for the day leaving a Double Distribution Trend Day Up. This imbalance continued on Wednesday with a gap up open where new ATH (All Time High) of 32683 was recorded and this led to profit booking as BankNifty made a late RE to the downside in the E period to get back into previous day’s range and went on to make a low of 32148 stopping right at previous day’s second extension handle where it left a responsive buying tail triggering a move back to 32629 into the close. Thursday open saw new highs of 32719 being hit but the auction remained in a narrow range of just 193 points in the IB indicating poor trade facilitation as it formed a Gaussian Profile for the day with a prominent POC at 32600. BankNifty made an initiative move away from this balance on Friday with another ORR start as it got rejected from previous Value and dropped by 500 points forming a ‘b’ shape profile for the day before closing the day around the prominent POC of 32250. The weekly profile is a Neutral one with overlapping to higher Value at 32090-32311-32614 and was marked by clear absence of demand at higher levels. The immediate reference on the upside for the coming week would be 32311 above which we have the daily VPOC of 32600 as the higher level to watch and on the downside 32090 would be the first support level below which the extension handle of 31948 & the buying singles from 31816 would be the important levels to be held.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty sustaining above 32311 could rise to 32421 / 32510 / 32600 / 32744 / 32850 / 32926 & 33060
B) Accepting below 32221, the auction could test 32091 / 31948 / 31840 / 31725 / 31610 / 31510 & 31418

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

32314 [ 32861 / 31810 ]

BNF opened with a freak OH tick at 32480 on Monday but immediately got back into previous week’s value as it left a long initiative selling tail in the IB from 32230 to 32480 and continued to drive lower in the C period where it went on to tag the daily VPOC of 31920 of 6th Jan and made a low of 31888 forming a ‘b’ shape long liquidation profile for the day. Tuesday saw a gap down open of almost 250 points as the auction made a low of 31810 but got rejected back into previous day’s range confirming an ORR (Open Rejection Reverse) to the upside as it left a buying tail in the IB from 31902 to 31810 indicating that the return of demand. The auction then made a big move in the ‘F’ period as it left an extension handle at 32046 and completed the 3 IB objective for the day while making new highs for the series at 32509 before closing the day around the dPOC of 32455 leaving a DD profile. BNF continued this imbalance with a drive up open on Wednesday as it made new highs of 32758 but could not extend further and the break of VWAP in the C period resulted in multiple REs to the downside as the auction took support right at the extension handle of 32250 indicating return of demand and this paved way for a big short covering move into the close as the auction left singles at lows from 32252 to 32377 and not only scaled above VWAP but went on to almost tag the morning highs as it hit 32743 before closing the day at 32685. Thursday open saw yet another freak high of 32861 as the auction could not sustain above PDH (Previous Day High) and remained in a narrow range of just 299 points all day leaving a ‘b’ shape profile with a tail at top from 32776 to 32861 and a prominent POC at 32700. Friday opened with an initiative move away from previous Value as BNF left a selling tail from 32490 to 32610 & made multiple REs lower as it hit 32105 but left a small buying tail at lows too from 32150 to 32105 before closing at the dPOC of 32304 leaving a 3-1-3 profile. This week’s profile has tails at both ends and is a Neutral Centre one with overlapping to higher Value at 32190-32406-32730.