Weekly Charts (14th to 18th December 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (14th to 18th Dec 2020)

Spot Weekly – 13760 [ 13773 / 13447 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a trending one on the upside with completely higher Value at 13347-13420-13533 and the immediate reference on the downside being the HVN of 13478. On the upside, Nifty will need to get accepted above 13548 for a probe towards 13766 in the coming week(s)

Nifty opened higher on Monday and scaled above previous week’s high of 13579 as it tagged 13597 but could not sustain these new highs and turned into an ORR (Open Rejection Reverse) leaving a selling tail in the IB (Initial Balance) from 13576 to 13597 which indicated that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) had turned to the downside. The auction then made multiple REs (Range Extension) lower in the first half of the day and even made a swipe below the weekly VAH of 13533 as it tagged the HVN of 13478 in the ‘H’ period but was swiftly rejected leaving a tail at lows too from 13503 to 13472 triggering a short covering move as it closed at the day’s VAH leaving a 3-1-3 profile. The sellers came back strongly on Tuesday with an Open Drive Down as it negated previous day’s buying tail and went on to make new lows of 13451 in the IB once again leaving an initiative selling tail from 13511 to 13549 and seemed to be on track to tag previous week’s POC of 13420 as it made an attempt to break lower in the ‘D’ period but got rejected immediately after making a mariginal new low of 13447 showing that the buyers were coming back wanting to defend 13420. Nifty then got back into Monday’s Value completing the 80% Rule negating the morning selling tail after which it went on to make a successful RE on the upside confriming a FA (Failed Auction) at lows making it clear that the PLR had now changed to the upside as it almost tagged the 1 ATR objective of 13592 before closing the day at 13568. The auction gave a rare follow up to a Neutral Extreme profile as it opened with a gap up on Wednesday and made new highs of 13666 but settled down into an OAOR (Open Auction Out of Range) leaving a very narrow IB range of just 44 points forming a balance in this range till the ‘H’ period where it made a RE lower but was unable to get back into previous day’s range validating lack of supply which gave buyers the confidence to make a fresh move higher resulting in another Neutral Extreme Day and new highs of 13692 confirming the second FA of the week at 13606. Nifty continued the probe higher on Thursday leaving an initiative tail in the IB as it not only completed the 2 ATR & 1 ATR objectives of 13737 & 13751 from the 2 FAs of 13447 & 13606 respectively but also hit the weekly objective of 13766 while making a high of 13773 which called for some profit booking and this also led to the laggard longs getting trapped as Friday saw an Open Drive Down with the biggest IB range of the month of 113 points as the auction negated Thursday’s buying tail and made new lows of 13659 but got rejected from just above Wednesday’s VPOC of 13644 leaving singles at both ends. Nifty then balanced in a narrow range of 40 points forming a ‘b’ shape profile for the first half of the day before getting into the selling tail of the IB from the ‘I’ period onwards as it went on to make a trending move higher into the close matching the PDH of 13773 before closing the week at 13760. The weekly profile is a Double Distribution (DD) Trend Up one with overlapping to higher Value at 13449-13533-13695 and the DD zone from 13625 to 13580 which would be the support to watch for in the coming week if the auction stays below the HVN of 13704.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs a drive above 13750 for a probe to 13810 / 13851 / 13896 / 13934 / 13980 & 14037
B) Accepting below 13746 could lead to a test of 13695 / 13644 / 13580 / 13527 / 13480 & 13447

NF (Weekly Profile)

13774 [ 13799 / 13454 ]

NF opened with a small gap up on Monday after which it probed above the HVN of 13575 and went on to make new highs for the series at 13613 in the opening minutes but lack of fresh demand pushed it back into previous week’s range as it made multiple REs (Range Extension) lower ending with a swipe down to 13490 briefly breaking below the lower HVN of 13514 where it left a buying tail to end the day with a 3-1-3 profile. The auction then made an ORR start to the downside on Tuesday negating the buying tail of Monday and went on to make new lows for the week at 13454 but stalled right above the weekly POC of 13446 which indicated that the demand was coming back and this initiated a trending move on the upside for the rest if the week as NF confirmed couple of daily FAs at 13454 & 13619 on Tuesday & Wednesday and went on to make new highs of 13799 into the close leaving a Neutral Extreme profile for the week with overlapping to higher Value at 13454-13552-13710 and a new HVN of 13750.


BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (14th to 18th Dec 2020)
Spot Weekly – 30714 [ 30945 / 30346 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘Value for the week was completely higher at 30120-30280-30580 but staying below 30580 in the coming week, the auction could execute the 80% Rule filling up the profile till 30280 & 30120

BankNifty opened higher and even made a probe above previous week’s high of 30812 as it made new highs for the month at 30845 but could not find fresh demand at these new highs and formed a perfect Gaussian profile for the day as it remained in a range of just 222 points with a prominent POC at 30766. Balance leads to imbalance & this was witnessed on Tuesday as the auction made an Open Drive Down as it got into previous week’s Value triggering the 80% Rule and even made an attempt to form a RE lower in the ‘D’ period as it made new lows for the week at 30346 but was immediately rejected indicating lack of fresh supply and this rejection led to a trending move higher for the rest of the day as the imbalance continued with a gap up on Wednesday which saw new highs for the month being recorded at 30932 but left a small tail at top in the IB giving an ORR (Open Rejection Reverse) start which meant that the upmove was coming to an end. BankNifty then made an OTF (One Time Frame) probe lower till the ‘H’ period where it made lows of 30587 taking support just above the weekly Value and gave a retracment to 30815 leaving another balanced profile with the POC around 30770. Thursday saw the only OAIR start for the week as the auction left a buying tail in the IB and completed the 80% Rule in previous day’s Value making a slow probe higher in the first half and even negated the selling tail to hit marginal new highs of 30945 but once again could not find fresh demand as it gave a retracement lower into the close leaving yet another balanced profile with the POC at 30770. Friday saw the third strong open by sellers this week as BankNifty made yet another Drive Down resulting in the biggest IB range for the month of 480 points but could not break below Tuesday’s failed RE lower and left singles at both ends of the IB which meant that the buyers & sellers were both defending their zones for now. The auction then stayed inside the IB all day with that overlapping POC of 30770 acting like a magnet as it made a late spike into the day there before closing the week at 30714. The weekly profile is a Neutral Centre one with the narrowest weekly range of the year 2020 of just 599 points and has a very prominent POC at 30760 and has a very good chance of moving away from here in the coming week but would need initiative volumes for any such move to sustain. Value for the week was completely higher at 30590-30760-30890.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to sustain above 30809 for a probe to 30890 / 31010 / 31150 / 31240 / 31326 & 31425
B) Accepting below 30710, the auction could test 30620 / 30534 / 30451 / 30346 / 30280 / 30102 & 30021

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 31425, BankNifty can probe higher to 31506 / 31650 / 31750 / 31860 / 31952 & 32056
D) Below 30021, lower levels of 29920 / 29849 / 29720 / 29581 / 29473 & 29350 could come into play

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

30736 [ 30998 / 30344 ]

BNF also made a gap up open on Monday and made a look up above previous week’s high as it tagged 30890 in the ‘A’ period but did not attract fresh demand forming a perfect Gaussian profile with one of the lowest daily range of just 234 points and closed right at the prominent POC of 30787. The auction made a Open Test Drive Down on Tuesday as it moved away from the previous day’s balance forming a large IB range of 402 points as it got back into previous week’s Value and even made an attempt to make a RE down as it made new lows of 30344 but got stalled just above the weekly POC of 30330 which meant demand was coming back in this zone. BNF then probed higher over the next 2 days as it completed the 1 ATR objetive of 30853 and made new highs for the series at 30998 on Thursday but failed to get new demand which led to the retracement of the entire move up as the auction make another Open Test Drive on Friday and made a even bigger IB range of 470 points as it made lows of 30380 and the large IB range led to a Normal Day being formed leaving a Neutral Centre weekly profile with mostly higher Value at 30592-30792-30918.