Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (15th July to 19th July)
11419 [ 11706 / 11399 ]
Nifty opened higher above previous week’s Value but was rejected as it seemed to give a drive down on Monday initiating the 80% Rule and tagging the weekly POC of 11556 as it left poor lows at 11532 to suggest exhaustion in the probe lower after which the auction gave a strong close around the weekly VAH . NF then saw some initiative activity on Tuesday as it left a buying tail in the IB (Initial Balance) and went on to close around the highs after making new highs for the week at 11670 but remained a ‘p’ profile which suggested that the move higher was due to covering of shorts rather than new demand. Wednesday saw the auction continue its probe higher making a range extension to the upside and tagging new highs of 11706 which was incidentally the beginning of the selling tail it had left on the trend day down of 8th July as Nifty left a narrow range of just 56 points for the day along with a prominent POC at 11690. This narrowing of range while probing higher indicated poor trade facilitation and the inability to venture into the trend day’s selling tail of 11705 to 11811 were signals that the probe to the upside was coming to an end which got more confirmation on Thursday as Nifty gave an almost OH start below the prominent POC of 11690 and started to make lower Value for most part of the day before giving a spike lower at close. Friday not only saw the auction accept the spike down but it went on to give a big drive down which eventually ended up in a Trend Day Down as Nifty not only made new lows for the week but also went on to break the previous week’s low & FA of 11461 as it made lows of 11399 before closing at 11419. The weekly Value was overlapping to higher but the close was far away from Value so the extension handles of 11461 & 11532 will be the important references to watch in the coming week(s) in case of any bounce though the PLR is likely to remain down for a test of the 1ATR move of 11336 from that negated FA of 11461. The weekly Value is 11554-11654-11694.
Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):
A) Nifty needs to get above 11449-461 for a move to 11496-503 & 11558-571
B) Immediate support is at 11399-396 below which the auction fall to 11379 / 11343-336 & 11319
C) Above 11571, Nifty can probe higher to 11611-625 & 11664-678
D) Below 11319 lower levels of 11294-290 & 11254-237 could come into play
E) If 11678 is taken out & sustained, Nifty can have a fresh leg up to 11707-719 & 11735
F) Break of 11235 could bring lower levels of 11185-180 & 11138-13
NF (Weekly Profile)
11422 [ 11693 / 11402 ]
NF started the week with a balance in the previous week’s Value as it got rejected from 11600 at open and took support at 11515 on Monday after which it probed higher over the next 2 days leaving an extension handle at 11600 and forming Value above previous week’s VAH as it made higher highs of 11672 & 11693 along with back to back ‘p’ shape profiles indicating short covering but on narrowing range and volumes which also hinted that the auction to the upside was facing poor trade facilitation. On Thursday, NF left poor highs at 11665 & probed lower negating that extension handle of 11600 to get back into previous week’s Value confirming that the PLR was now to the downside and the Open Test Drive lower on Friday triggered a classic Trend Day Down as the auction not only completed the 80% Rule in previous week’s Value of 11592 t0 11493 but went on to break below previous week’s low of 11467 to make lows of 11402 before closing below the HVN of 11435. The weekly Value was overlapping to higher but the Friday’s imbalance took the price away from Value and it is very likely this imbalance could continue into the start of the new week as the Value looks to catch up with the price. This week’s Value is 11544-11628-11682.
BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (15th July to 19th July)
29770 [ 30799 / 29706 ]
BankNifty opened higher on Monday but got rejected at 30696 just below the weekly VAH of 30730 giving a drive lower & not only completed the 80% Rule in the weekly Value but went on to break previous week’s lows as it made lows of 30334 tagging an earlier weekly VPOC but was rejected swiftly from the new lows to get back into the previous week’s ‘b’ shape profile as the auction then started the reverse 80% Rule in the weekly Value which was also the nicely balanced base of the ‘b’ profile. BankNifty went on to scale above the weekly VAH making highs of 30799 on Wednesday but was unable to stay above it on Thursday as it made another rotation lower in the weekly Value from 30769 to tag 30378 negating the 2 day move higher and forming overlapping weekly POC around 30600 which suggested the close for the week once again could be around it. Friday however saw the auction change character from balance to imbalance as it gave a open test drive lower to move sharply away from developing Value as it made new weekly lows in the IB itself after which it went on to break the previous support zone of 30265-220 and then got into the singles of the 20th May Gap of 30174 to 29450 making a low of 29706 leaving a Trend Day Down as BankNifty closed the week at 29770. The weekly Value is 30370-30585-30720
Weekly Hypos for BankNifty (Spot):
A) BankNifty needs to sustain above 29836-845 for a move to 29880 / 29930-950 & 30016-26
B) Staying below 29760-750, the auction can test 29680-650 / 29585 & 29500
C) Above 30026, BankNifty can probe higher to 30113-151 / 30190-220 & 30277
D) Below 29500, lower levels of 29430-413 / 29375 & 29335-325 could come into play
E) If 30277 is taken out, BankNifty could rise to 30322-335 / 30370 & 30443-451
F) Break of 29325 could trigger a move lower to 29240-205 / 29155-145 & 29058-20
G) Sustaining above 30451, the auction can tag higher levels of 30520-538 / 30585 & 30625-645
H) Staying below 29020, BankNifty can probe down to 28955-920 & 29865-815
BNF (Weekly Profile)
29781 [ 30535 / 29726 ]
BNF remained within the previous week’s range & Value for most of the week and the first four days building a 2-week composite balance at 30452-30602-30773 before moving away from the balance on Friday with a Trend Day Down leaving extension handles at 30325 & 30045 as it made lows of 29726. The weekly Value is 30368-30584-30744.
