Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (6th May to 10th May)
The weak close of previous week (Read the report ‘here’) lead to a gap down opening on Monday as Nifty left an extension handle on the higher time frame at 11699 as balance made way to a big imbalance to give a trending triple distribution weekly profile. Although Tuesday did see a gap up at open, the auction was rejected exactly from previous month’s POC of 11656 as it confirmed a weekly FA at 11657 as it broke below previous day’s low leaving a second extension handle for the week at 11571 and confirming that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) is firmly to the downside. Nifty continued to trend lower on Wednesday as it broke below 11448 (which was the monthly POC of March which was a trend up month) at open and tagged the 1 ATR of 11403 from 11657 after which it gave a pull back which got rejected again at exactly 11449 leaving a huge selling tail from 11550 to 11449 and also re-confirming that the trend down is still very strong and went on to spike lower leaving an extension handle on daily at 11388. The auction gapped lower on Thurday and made an range extension lower also as it made a low of 11255 but ended up making a balanced profile after which Friday also saw Nifty balancing in a similar range to leave a nice balanced zone at the lower end of the weekly profile. However, the auction left a small nuance at close at it confirmed a daily FA at 11346 and closed below the dVAL which meant that it could continue the imbalance to the downside in the coming week. The weekly Value is 11256-11316-11560.
Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):
A) Nifty has immediate supply at 11292-316 zone above which it could move to 11340-346 / 11388-396 & 11418
B) Immediate support below previous week’s low is at 11235-231 which if broken can bring lower levels of 11180-168 & 11149-139
C) Sustaining above 11418, the auction can probe higher to tag zones of 11449-460 & 11485-503
D) Break of 11131-124 would be bearish for levels of 11089-78 / 11055-49 & 11025
E) Above 11503, Nifty could have a fresh leg up to tag 11550-557 & 11576-613
F) Break of 11025 can bring a fresh down move to 10995-973 / 10940-937 & 10921-913
NF (Weekly Profile)
NF gave a gap down opening this week leaving a selling tail from 11764 to 11688 and an extension handle at 11735 breaking below PWL (Previous Week’s Low) of 11712 which was a bearish start & a strong signal that the balance of previous week is making way for an imbalance and NF went on to give a Triple Distribution Trending Profile week Down with a close at lows suggesting that the move to the down side is still not over. NF first made a balance in the 11650 – 11680 zone before it left an extension handle at 11626 along with singles from 11626 to 11519 below which it made the second distribution in the zone of 11458 – 11499. The auction then left another extension handle at 11443 along with another round of singles from 11443 to 11397 below which it made the lower most balance from 11305 – 11367 and this balance also had the weekly POC of 11358 which will be the first HVN on the upside to watch in the coming week. NF has 3 more HVNs at 11485, 11544 & 11658 which could come into play if the auction sustains above 11360. NF was faced with selling whenever it made a range extension on the upside all week & as a result multiple FA’s on daily with the latest FA at 11376 which was confirmed on Friday. The PLR would be lower till NF can take this FA out in the coming week. The weekly Value is 11285-11358-11541.
BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (6th May to 10th May)
BankNifty opened with a big gap down of 300+ points this week as it looked like moving away from the 2 week composite but went on to close that gap on Tuesday to look for some unfinished business as it opened higher that day to make a high of 29835 where the auction got rejected & similar to what happened in Nifty, BankNifty also confirmed a weekly FA just below the monthly POC of 29850 giving a strong signal of a big down move coming which happened on that day itself as it fell by almost 600 points from that FA and went on to tag the 1 ATR move down of 29002 on Wednesday as it continued to trend lower. The auction then gave a gap down of 100 points on Thursday as it tagged the 1 ATR move of 28900 from the monthly FA of 30670 (read the monthly report ‘here’) which was a huge 1770 point range as BankNifty went on to make a low of 28784 but gave a bounce from there which can be expected when a big objective has been met on a larger timeframe. BankNifty went on to confirm a daily FA at 28784 giving more confirmation of the down move getting stalled and went on to tag the 1 ATR move up from the FA at 29203 the next day to the dot from where it got rejected indicating that the bounce could be done & the main trend could resume in the coming week. On the weekly timeframe, BankNifty has given a Double Distribution profile down as it first made a balance between 29780 to 29630 and then left an extension handle at 29528 to leave a selling tail from 29528 to 29243 and then made a balance in the lower part at 29180 to 28900. The weekly Value is 29020-29705-29830.
Weekly Hypos for BankNifty (Spot):
A) BankNifty needs to stay above 29020 for a move higher to 29071-93 / 29156-205 / 29243
B) Immediate support is at 28986-955 below which the auction gets weak for 28900 & 28815-785
C) Sustaining above 29243, the auction can probe higher to 29327 / 29413-435 / 29499-530
D) Break of 28785 could trigger a probe down to 28731-686 / 28633 / 28561
E) BankNifty sustaining above 29530 could bring higher levels of 29585-630 / 29671-713 / 29760-835
F) Below 28561, the auction could continue to fall to 28499-488 / 28396-344-309 / 28247-221
BNF (Weekly Profile)
BNF gave a big gap down of 300+ points this week first making a balance around the high volume zone of 29800-29864 as it attempted to close the gap on Tuesday getting rejected and in the process confirmed a weekly FA at 29945. The auction then saw a big drop as it left a weekly extension handle at 29649 and first tagged the 1 ATR target of 29442 from the earlier weekly FA of 30252 on Tuesday and continued the fall on Wednesday as BNF went on to tag the 1 ATR target of 29136 from this week’s FA. The auction opened weak on Thursday also as it gave a gap down and went on to make new lows of 28902 completing a 1000 point range for the week and looked a bit stretched on the downside which was further confirmed as it left a small buying tail from 28946-28900 at lows and went on to make a balance in the lower part of the weekly profile as it gave a bounce to 29258 on Friday where it got rejected as it closed just below the weekly VAL indicating that the PLR is still to the downside. BNF has made a Double Distribution Trend Down profile on the weekly with a small distribution at the top from 29780-29895 with a HVN at 29832 and has the DD singles from 29649 to 29419 which will act as supply zone in the coming week. The weekly POC is at 29128 which will be the immediate level to watch on the upside. On the downside, BNF has the pending 2 ATR targets of 28632 & 28327 from the 2 weekly FAs to look for. The weekly Value is 29120-29128-29940.
