The series of August which concluded on Friday was traded with a vwap of 11444 and highest volume during the series came at 11480. The Nifty trended up through the August series with buyers in total control of the auction and hence the vwap at 11444 will serve as an important pivot in the coming few months.
The BN traded August with a vwap of 27923 and highest volume was traded at 28280. Viewed against the uptrending profile of the Nifty, the Bank index was rangebound and the last 4 weeks were spent in the same range forming a neat looking gaussian profile on the monthly.
On the smaller weekly timeframe, the 3-1-3 on the Nifty spot got broken on Monday at the open. The Nifty proceeded to form a double distribution in the week. The break out of last week’s highs in the 3-1-3 profile makes the 11600 as the first major support for the coming week. In the last 2 days of settlement, our OrderFlow charts picked up major long liquidation at the 11730 spot zone.
The DD profile and the long liquidation seen point to a range-bound week between 11600 and 11800 in the 5 sessions ahead. We feel dips to 11600 should meet new buying and the traders who booked at higher levels should come back to support the index on dips.
Consolidation could be the theme of the coming week with a focus on getting a balance in the DD zone seen this week.
Midterm looks strong now with supports at 11452 supports and at 11600 and if a proper consolidation comes about at these levels over the coming 2 weeks, the index should find itself trading near 12240 levels in the months ahead.
Our last week’s view of the BN having resistance at 28350 played out yet again and the index continued to be in a narrow range. Looking at the commitment of delivery positions in the BankNifty, the index has a low open interest in the region of 16.3 Lakh shares only. This is as low as the Open Interest at the end of the March series.
We would be watching for signs of new buying in the BankNifty which should propel the index to 31060 in the coming months. However, a failure in September below 27650 would annul those plans.
For the duration of the week ahead, we expect the BN to continue to show range bound behavior.
Last week’s post is at – https://vtrender.com/weekly-outlook-for-the-week-dated-27th-to-31st-august/
Nifty Weekly Profile ( spot) :
and an expanded chart of the Nifty Sept Futures
The week was traded in a range of 11760-11595 range with a POC at 11736
The Profile was a Double Distribution
Early support can be seen now at 11595 in the Profile charts
Supply expected to come back around 11795 zone this coming week.
Our preferred view is to see a balance forming between the 2 volume nodes of the above chart.
These are our weekly projections and broadly the setups we would look at to trade in the coming week subject to a confirmation from our OrderFlow charts. These plans can change depending on the change in the day auction.
To know more about how we use these setups to trade and to stay updated and get actionable trading advice subscribe to the VTR ( Vtrender Trading Room). More info at-https://vtrender.com/trading-room/. Pricing details at – https://vtrender.com/pricing/
BankNifty Weekly Profile ( spot) :
and an expanded chart of the Bank Nifty Sept Futures
The banknifty traded a 28388-27940 range during the week.
Largest volume was traded at 28200 during the week
The consolidation should continue in the week ahead.
Support at 27760 is expected to hold in the coming week
Supply is present at 28200 and 28360 on any probe higher
These are our weekly projections and broadly the setups we would look at to trade in the coming week subject to a confirmation from our OrderFlow charts. These plans can change depending on the change in the day auction.
To know more about how we use these setups to trade and to stay updated, and get actionable trading advice subscribe to the VTR ( Vtrender Trading Room). More info at-https://vtrender.com/trading-room/. Pricing details at – https://vtrender.com/pricing/