OrderFlow charts and Notes 22/09

[09:10]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[09:11]   Sumit : gm rm
[09:12]   r m : Hi Sumit
[09:13]   Sharad : Gm all
[09:14]   Anay : GM All
[09:16]   Shai : Gm all
[09:16]   Shai : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-22nd-sept/
[09:16]   Mandar : Good morning All.
[09:19]   Shai : Open in last week’s poor oirderflow zone
[09:19]   Sharad : Good charts… now we can see both
[09:19]   Shai : enough buyers seen in first 5 minutes
[09:20]   Shai : could be an OAOR
[09:21]   Sharad : yes USDINR falling means buying good here
[09:23]   Shai : auction wise if we stay below 8085 then 8056 comes first
[09:23]   Sharad : but pink … so will buy after green line
[09:23]   Shai : above 8085 will give 20 points to 8105/ 8112
[09:28]   Shai : lots of buyers in both NF
[09:28]   Shai : and BNF
[09:28]   Chiranthan : Buy NF now?
[09:28]   Shai : yes buy on 8085 cross
[09:28]   Chiranthan : SL
[09:29]   Shai : 8069
[09:29]   Chiranthan : ok
[09:29]   Shai : Buy BNF abv 16125 tgt 16170 sl 16095
[09:37]   Sumit : Shai, increase th font in NF chart please
[09:39]   Shai : better?
[09:39]   Sumit : yes thanks
[09:40]   Shai : There were some changes made to the display over the weekend to enable better viewing of charts
[09:41]   Shai : If you want to see charts in full screen mode, please ensure that the 4 arrows in the tab on the top left and pointing inwards and you click the next box on the right of it
[09:41]   Amit J : wow sun gone
[09:43]   r m : sunset!
[09:51]   Shai : Amit that was a good spot
[09:52]   Shai : went right upto the previous week’s supply and came right down
[09:52]   Shai : perfect move !
[09:52]   Shai : BNF itching to do the 80%
[09:56]   Amit J : i am playing for import alert. if that comes than 100 rs fall
[09:57]   Shai : ok
[09:57]   Sharad : what is import alert amit
[09:59]   Amit J : fda inspection outcome – warning
[09:59]   Sharad : when it is going to come today?
[10:13]   Sharad : Shai what is INR support today
[10:16]   Sharad : same 60.70
[10:30]   Shai : yes 60.7 and 60.57
[10:30]   Sharad : ok Thanks
[10:30]   Shai : INR and equity not in sync today
[10:43]   Shai : Nifty auction playing out as an OAOR
[10:43]   Shai : string buyers near 8070 and some selling coming near 8090
[10:43]   Shai : BNF not able to rise abv VAL and is back to vwap
[10:54]   Shai : BNf has also nice supporting buyers at day low
[10:58]   Shai : Bigger move in NF is above 8112 today and that will take us to 8145/ 8150
[11:08]   Shai : NF into a scalpers zone now
[11:08]   Shai : most probably will trade 8082- 8096
[11:08]   Chiranthan : Continue to hold NF long?
[11:27]   Shai : Yes – let’s hold
[11:27]   Chiranthan : ok
[11:47]   Kathir : Hi Shai RM ge and all friends 🙂
[11:48]   r m : Hi Kathir 🙂
[11:50]   Kathir : @amit thanks for that sunpharma for 🙂
[11:50]   Kathir : @shai thanks for the levels
[12:04]   Amit J : welcome Kathir
[12:11]   Shai : Kathir- happy to know you capitalised 🙂
[12:11]   Shai : all credit only to Amit
[12:13]   Shai : 8100 ce and pe at 73
[12:13]   Kathir : yes shai 🙂 sold 800 ce ad covered today
[12:13]   Shai : good 🙂
[12:13]   Shai : Pe’s are covering this morning
[12:15]   Mandar : Kathir is an excellent timer and understands against whom to bet;-)
[12:15]   Shai : OI change – http://screencast.com/t/Kpaopb6Emmp
[12:16]   Shai : It’s typical of expiry week to put people off when a strike is written as 8100 was
[12:16]   Shai : friday it was 8100 ce shaken
[12:16]   Shai : today it is 8100 pe
[12:17]   Shai : I get a feeling we may have some more reruns in this 8056- 8161 range
[12:25]   Kathir : @mandar all credit to shai and his charts only. without that i am a balnk paper 🙂
[12:25]   Shai : BNf showing new buyers
[12:25]   r m : Prayer – God, make me a blank paper 🙂
[12:25]   Kathir : lol
[12:32]   Mandar : lol
[12:33]   Kathir : @shai can we enter fresh long bnf now above 16125 ?
[12:57]   Kathir : shai?
[13:05]   Shai : yes
[13:05]   Narendra : what should be sl in nifty now
[13:05]   Shai : 8097
[13:05]   Narendra : for that trade above 8112
[13:05]   Shai : we are abv vwap
[13:05]   Shai : don’t buy here
[13:05]   Narendra : ok
[13:05]   Shai : well abv vwap band
[13:07]   Shai : OrderFlow shows morning buyers booking
[13:07]   Shai : those who got long at 8085 can book out fully and wait
[13:07]   Shai : we wait for a pull back for the risk to decrease
[13:07]   Shai : tgt is still a close at 8140/50
[13:14]   Shai : back into vwap
[13:14]   Shai : we place a buy abv 8119 now for tgt 8142 ands sl 8104
[13:15]   Anay : ok
[13:15]   Kathir : shai bnf any buys here again
[13:17]   Shai : BNf will do 80%
[13:17]   Shai : sl is just below val tgt 16170
[13:18]   Shai : 16170/ 16210
[13:22]   Shai : remove that 8119 buy order
[13:22]   Shai : oops
[13:22]   Shai : Market went searchinmg for orders
[13:23]   Chiranthan : What is the entry level now?
[13:23]   Shai : 8110 sl strict if you got in
[13:24]   Shai : we will buy around 8100 again- Orderflow is not as convincing as open of today
[13:24]   Chiranthan : ok
[13:24]   Shai : feel 8095- 8100 needs to visist
[13:24]   Shai : sellers are coming here
[13:30]   Shai : early morning buyers v/s responsive sellers
[13:33]   Shai : BNf does 80
[13:33]   Shai : NF wants to do 80 now
[13:33]   Shai : The thing about 80% is that it will happen – whatever the orderflow
[13:35]   Shai : If we don’t visist 8100 now and close higher near 8150, buy some 8100 puts for tom – we will visit 8100 F again tom
[13:39]   Shai : Charts abv show why the long was safer in the morning than here
[13:39]   Shai : 8128 VAL in NF and if we cross that then 8148 VAH on 80% rule
[13:40]   Shai : Agressive counter trade is for 8103/ 8095 with sl abv 8129
[13:41]   Anay : but 80% rule states that min 30 min shld be spent above/below VAL/VAH for the other extreme to be hit rt?
[13:41]   Shai : Yes theoretically and in the olden days that used to be the case
[13:41]   Shai : Now no longer 🙂
[13:41]   Shai : those days markets were much slower than today
[13:42]   Anay : oh ok 🙂
[13:42]   Anay : so now…once crossed…should head to other extreme?
[13:42]   Shai : yes
[13:43]   Anay : ok thanks
[13:43]   Shai : mw
[13:43]   Kathir : Anay that was cong and this is BJP 🙂
[13:43]   Anay : lol
[13:44]   Kathir : but dont misatke that bjp is doing the same thing cong did but very faster 🙂
[13:46]   r m : lol
[13:47]   Anay : 😀
[13:47]   Shai : In maharashtra don’t be surprised if we see bjp- ncp together in a month!- Our man Pawar does not like to be away from power 🙂
[13:47]   r m : lol
[13:47]   Anay : lol
[13:47]   r m : he should rename himself Powar 🙂
[13:48]   Kathir : lol
[13:48]   Shai : The joke here was – what comes after million, billion and trillion dollars- it is pawar 🙂
[13:48]   r m : 🙂
[13:49]   Kathir : hope this time election commision adds Shai name in the list
[13:49]   r m : but he is a very sharp crook, very unlikely to visit a jail 🙂
[13:49]   Shai : Like- I have a 100 Pawar dollars 🙂
[13:49]   Kathir : 🙂
[13:49]   r m : 🙂
[13:50]   Shai : acceptance coming in NF abv 8112
[13:50]   Kathir : @RM from now our aim is to reach pawar
[13:50]   r m : @Shai, what should be the stop for 80% trade in NF if triggered? PDH OK
[13:50]   Shai : Looks like we march higher
[13:50]   Shai : yes
[13:50]   r m : Thanks
[13:51]   r m : @Kathir, great aim 🙂
[13:51]   Shai : I would have taken that buy at 8114 but orderflow was not supportive
[13:51]   r m : ok
[13:52]   Shai : looking like a DD now
[13:53]   Kathir : 8200 ce 4 low 11.3 high
[13:53]   Shai : outside chance of 8221 still in the series
[13:53]   Kathir : shai 8150 ce pe pair almost 70 now
[13:54]   Shai : but we will look at it if 8162 is crossed
[13:54]   Anay : but last 30 min OF heavily in favour of sellers
[13:54]   Shai : yes
[13:57]   Narendra : what sl now in nifty
[13:58]   Anay : 8100 CE in resistance zone
[14:03]   Shai : Sl is 8110
[14:04]   Shai : surprised to see this red Orderflwo inn NF in this range
[14:04]   Shai : we were very positive in the 8115- 8135 zone on friday
[14:05]   Shai : One reason could be that we are rolling into OCt and hence the reds here
[14:05]   Shai : we will have the Oct OF charts on screen tom
[14:10]   Kathir : @rm ge
[14:10]   r m : yessir!
[14:11]   Kathir : is the option calc in nest working now
[14:12]   r m : yes
[14:12]   Shai : 80%
[14:13]   Shai : 16208 BNF
[14:13]   Kathir : @rm ok thanks need some help from you to use that..will u be available in any gmail chat after market hours
[14:14]   r m : yes
[14:14]   r m : even now available
[14:14]   Kathir : now is it ok for you?
[14:14]   r m : available but invisible 😀
[14:15]   r m : oh yes, always OK
[14:15]   Narendra : nifty done?
[14:15]   Kathir : 🙂 I am on the way
[14:15]   r m : roger
[14:18]   Kathir : @rm have sent invi to gmail chat
[14:18]   Shai : Narendra 8144 VAH
[14:19]   r m : @Kathir, I too sent but have not got anything from you, looks like gmail servers are resting 🙂
[14:20]   Shai : NF OCT OF on screen
[14:20]   Kathir : 🙂
[14:20]   Shai : Push up came through OF in Oct F but sellers are there
[14:24]   Shai : BNf big buyers in OCT F
[14:25]   Shai : looks like that 16230 will be history now
[14:25]   Shai : 16230F of sept
[14:25]   Shai : tgt is 16310/ 16397 if we cross 16240 BNF sept F
[14:26]   Chiranthan : SL for bnf?
[14:26]   Shai : 16195
[14:27]   Kathir : nf near 8160 zone
[14:27]   Shai : yes 8162 was the seller
[14:28]   Anay : whats the action today at that level?
[14:28]   Shai : at vwap band- book any longs if holding from 8128
[14:28]   Shai : so far seller not visisble at 8162
[14:29]   Shai : first sign of the seller at 8163
[14:34]   Shai : Looks like seller from fri is cobering
[14:34]   Shai : *covering
[14:34]   Shai : vol exchange is on the buy side
[14:34]   Anay : ok
[14:35]   Shai : more buyers now
[14:36]   Shai : can we ri=ush to 8221?
[14:36]   Anay : what are the chances that the seller fm Friday covered near 8085 itself?
[14:37]   Shai : yes good
[14:38]   Shai : there were also stuck players on the rise of the trend day
[14:38]   Shai : But people keep some sl at costv always
[14:40]   Shai : We are doing a small test on OrderFlow & Open Interest co-relations
[14:40]   Shai : This came out on friday- EOD data at the close on Friday showed NF reducing 16832 contracts in Sept F of the 19064 it added on thursday. The BNF also shed 2012 Sept contracts. This data may be pointing to a marginally positive close late on Monday afternoon.
[14:40]   Anay : 8100 view for 2moro negated?
[14:41]   Shai : Not yet
[14:41]   Shai : we will see how it runs in last 30 mins
[14:41]   Anay : ok
[14:46]   Shai : last big seller was at 8132
[14:46]   Shai : Price swing up from 8133 is positive
[14:46]   Shriraj : cipla f short one covered one holding shall cls it or…..can u pls tell shai…..
[14:47]   Shai : sept?
[14:47]   Shriraj : current month
[14:47]   Shriraj : sold at 627
[14:48]   Shai : cipla supp near 607
[14:49]   Shriraj : k
[14:49]   Shriraj : thnx shai
[14:49]   Shai : suggest book but resell tom below 606 as price can drop hard to 592/ 584 if vol is good
[14:50]   Shriraj : k thnx
[14:50]   Shai : mw
[14:52]   Shai : BNf taking it’s time but marching up
[14:55]   Shai : if you got it near 240 book part at least near 300- 310
[14:55]   Kathir : @anay if that seller covered from 8085 then it is profit booking for him
[14:56]   Shai : oh yes- these big players make profits most of the time
[14:56]   Anay : yup..of course 🙂
[14:57]   Kathir : 🙂
[14:58]   Kathir : big red bars
[14:58]   Kathir : blue in oct i guess
[14:59]   r m : you guessed right!
[14:59]   Kathir : oct nf trades at 8225
[15:01]   Anay : 8100 CE double top…Friday and today
[15:02]   Anay : will buy Oct PEs in last 10 min
[15:03]   Shai : 8150 Pe at 25 –
[15:03]   Shai : can buy part here and part at close
[15:03]   Shai : tgt is 8134 tom
[15:04]   Kathir : @shai 8150 ce pe pair 67 now 90 friday 🙂
[15:05]   Anay : ok
[15:06]   Shai : Yes Kathir
[15:06]   Shai : We have a problem with the pair trades if tom we do not go below 8140 spot
[15:07]   Shai : then we will close the series at the highs and not 8100 as we held earlier
[15:07]   Kathir : ok
[15:07]   Shai : BNf should stay abv 16220
[15:10]   Shai : spot did not cross fri highs
[15:11]   Shai : in Nifty
[15:21]   Shai : sellersw coming in NF also
[15:24]   Kathir : shai hold that 8150 pe for tomrw?
[15:26]   Shai : yes
[15:27]   Kathir : ok thankls
[15:27]   Shai : BNf closing below 16230 again
[15:28]   Shai : spot is at 8140 again
[15:28]   Anay : bought Oct 8000 PE at 45
[15:29]   Shai : 12.7 Million volume
[15:29]   Shai : skewed towrads the downside tom
[15:30]   Shai : 23L volume in BNF but that too is skewed down per volume imbalance
[15:30]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂
[15:30]   Shai : Bye all
[15:30]   Shai : Have a nice eve
[15:30]   Mandar : bye all
[15:31]   Kathir : thanks and bye all have a nice eve
[15:32]   Anay : bye all