OrderFlow charts and Notes 30/09/14

[08:48]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[08:48]   Porus : GM, RM
[08:49]   r m : http://vtrender.com/levels-an-plan-for-30th-sept/
[08:49]   r m : Hi Porus
[08:59]   Sharad : GM all
[09:02]   Shai : Gm all
[09:03]   Shai : http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-300914/
[09:05]   Amit J : GM
[09:14]   r m : USDINR touches yesterday vwap in first ten minutes
[09:17]   Shai : Open at the lower end of yesterday
[09:18]   Chiranthan : SL for yesterday’s ce’s?
[09:18]   Shai : There were no sellers at these lows yesterday
[09:18]   Shai : so change would be if we detect sellers now
[09:18]   Shai : Keep a sl at 7958 F
[09:18]   Chiranthan : ok
[09:24]   Shai : looks more lke a local to laocal setup this morning
[09:24]   Shai : OTF not in pic
[09:25]   Shai : could rotate around here in a broad 7970- 7995 kind of range
[09:35]   Porus : shai, what sl for 8100ce?
[09:36]   Shai : (09:18) Shai :Keep a sl at 7958 F
[09:37]   Shai : teh pre RBi move has not come about as expected yesterday
[09:39]   Shai : We place stops at 7958 and wait to see if the mkt responds
[09:39]   Shai : NF has to climb abve 8007 VAL quickly for an pmove to happen
[09:39]   Shai : till then yesterday’s buyers are under pressure
[09:43]   Sumit : gm everyone
[09:53]   Shai : Gm Sumit
[09:53]   Shai : wait mode
[09:53]   Shai : IB is 16 only
[09:54]   Shai : hypo2 levels are 15470 and 7959
[09:54]   Shai : VAL at 8006 and 15669 will give high probabaility 80% trades if crossed to VAH
[10:05]   Shai : Yesterday there was cash buying by FII’s and DII’s and net OI in Nifty shows short covering
[10:06]   Shai : If you see in teh current Month OI sheet most of the addition from 22/08 is shorts
[10:06]   Shai : and yesterday was the first day we saw reduction
[10:07]   Shai : so far this morning OrderFlow does not show any more new shorts
[10:09]   Manik : @ vAL
[10:13]   Shai : looks like we will do the 80% before RBI
[10:30]   Shai : back exactly from VAL
[10:31]   Shai : Orderflowstill shows buyers holding
[10:48]   Shai : 12 mins
[10:48]   Shai : even if it is nothing the 11.00- 12.00 hour promises to be wild
[10:56]   Shai : BNF at VAL
[10:57]   Shai : Premium in NF is down to 35 from 75 on expiry day
[11:00]   Shai : 8020
[11:00]   r m : bnf a 15630 hypo1
[11:01]   Shai : No rate cut
[11:01]   Shai : status quo
[11:05]   Shai : day longs have cut exposure
[11:05]   Shai : Initial move off RBI is down and that’s what we will watch from hereon
[11:11]   Rahul G : shai the nifty max is 36 now
[11:11]   Rahul G : so shorts comming in
[11:11]   Rahul G : yesterday it was more like 600-700
[11:11]   Shai : yes today’s eary morning longs have liquidated
[11:11]   Shai : no shorts yet
[11:12]   Shai : We have an FA at 8020 now if 8008 is not crossed till close
[11:15]   Shai : Nothing wild seen yet 🙂
[11:16]   r m : Rajan has tamed stock markets 😀
[11:16]   Shai : I thought we will see some aggressive bulls or bears in the safar sponsored by Rajan
[11:16]   Shai : *safari
[11:16]   Porus : bnf longs building up again?
[11:16]   Shai : yes BNF showing long addition
[11:28]   Shai : Volume post RBI is just 2.8 milion
[11:28]   r m : no long addition in NF post RBI
[11:29]   Shai : yes
[11:29]   Shai : in BNF it is there
[11:30]   r m : yes, delta near max in BNF
[11:34]   Shai : 8000 ce pe written for the long weekend already
[11:34]   Shai : 225 now at 8000
[11:35]   Shai : vix below 12.98 will decline to 11.67
[11:35]   Shai : upmove in vix is halted at 13.46
[11:35]   Amit J : event risk done thats why
[11:35]   Shai : yes
[11:36]   Shai : NF
[11:36]   r m : now delta getting better in NF
[11:36]   Shai : auction completing abv IBH- FA negated
[11:41]   Shai : Book part in 8100 ce longs if holding
[11:41]   Shai : sl is now 8001 for the day
[11:43]   Shai : 8056 was the obj we hit 849 with vwap not mving
[11:43]   Shai : next part of the move is abv 8056 only
[11:44]   r m : @Shai, the delta should also help in buying the dip, I mean if delta does not go down significantly then dips should be worth buying?
[11:44]   Shai : yes
[11:45]   r m : Thanks
[11:45]   Shai : if delta on dipdoes not fall then shorts are not buying
[11:45]   Shai : so upmve can be faster
[11:45]   r m : ok
[11:45]   Shai : at 8020 delta was positive still which meant that shorts were not in majorly
[11:46]   Shai : on RBI event tat is
[11:46]   r m : ok
[11:46]   Shai : BNF doing welll from 465
[11:47]   Shai : vwa bands are not showing it a s ahuge volume move in NF
[11:53]   Rahul G : shai is 8049 a failed auction
[11:55]   r m : two requirements for FA, first only single prints outside IB and second price should return to the other end of IB
[11:56]   r m : NF does not have single prints above IBH any more
[11:59]   Amit J : 8020 was FA but it didnt satisfy condition 2 and price reversed. shai commented on the same above
[11:59]   r m : yes
[12:00]   r m : BNF delta at max again
[12:06]   Shai : NF too now
[12:06]   Shai : this leve in NF at 012- 8018 is becoming a favorite for buyers
[12:07]   Anay : @SHai your view on Sun and Auro pharma pls
[12:07]   Shai : sure
[12:07]   Amit J : but today buyers at this level missing
[12:09]   Shai : Sun phamra driving up
[12:09]   Shai : tgt of the move is 869
[12:09]   Shai : cmp 849
[12:10]   Anay : ok
[12:10]   Shai : dips to 838 will be buys for the same tgt
[12:10]   Anay : ok
[12:16]   Shai : auropharma is also a drive
[12:16]   Shai : may go to 995 still from here
[12:16]   Shai : but looking a lot more riskier
[12:17]   Shai : prefer to buy auro around 941 if it comes than chase price here at 976
[12:19]   Anay : ok thanks
[12:20]   Shai : welcome
[12:20]   Shai : These orderflow buyers have been patient through the RBI event and the down gap
[12:21]   Shai : apt reward would be to see spot at 8048 from here
[12:21]   Shai : 7989 now
[12:29]   Shai : vwap band again
[12:29]   Shai : volume is not backing the move up
[12:31]   Anay : view on TCS plz
[12:33]   Porus : NF delta falling. longs are liquidating again?
[12:34]   Shai : booking part profits maybe’
[12:34]   Shai : already 8026- (12:21) Shai :7989 now
[12:34]   Narendra : can enter in bnf above vah?
[12:34]   Shai : No buy on pull back now
[12:38]   Shai : 15600 has nice buying volume in bnf
[12:38]   Shai : can alsobuy near 15630
[12:38]   Shai : tgt 15750 refer hypo 1
[12:39]   Shai : Amit just filling up data for tcs- in a min
[12:40]   Chiranthan : SL for BNF?
[12:41]   Shai : just below IBH of 15580
[12:41]   Shai : today is monthly close and nifty at 8040- 8060 will be a good close
[12:44]   Kathir : Hi Shai RM and al friends
[12:44]   Kathir : all
[12:45]   r m : Hi Kathir
[12:45]   Shai : TCS 2800 supply will be difficult to cross
[12:45]   Shai : 1st line of supp is 2714
[12:45]   Amit J : can today be a trending day till eod?
[12:45]   Anay : ok
[12:45]   Shai : in tcs?
[12:45]   Amit J : nifty
[12:46]   Amit J : yesterday normal day before that neutral
[12:46]   Amit J : so set up is perfect for short trap
[12:46]   Shai : possible
[12:46]   Shai : 8106 F obj abv 8056
[12:46]   Anay : and lastly…check Coal India plz..looks good for longs
[12:46]   Shai : ad volumes coming now
[12:47]   Shai : sure
[12:48]   Amit J : thanks
[12:48]   Anay : @AMit RBI day is rarely a trending day…
[12:49]   Shai : Yes RBI is 2 time frame
[12:49]   Shai : but what he meant was that is is 1time frame now above 8020
[12:50]   Shai : longs are cashing
[12:50]   Shai : keep trailing 8055 is a good sl now
[12:50]   Shai : never let te market take away your prfoits
[12:52]   Shai : Col india is showing a nice setup
[12:52]   Shai : close abv 350 .3 tom will be good
[12:53]   Shai : in line for 358/ 372 from here
[12:53]   Chiranthan : Are these cash levels?
[12:53]   Shai : cash
[12:53]   Chiranthan : ok
[12:54]   Chiranthan : Can reenter BNF now?
[12:55]   Shai : wait a bit in BNF
[12:55]   Shai : I’ll alert
[12:55]   Chiranthan : ok
[12:55]   Shai : NF May want to come back to 855
[12:55]   Shai : 8055
[12:55]   Kathir : @SHAI please give usd/inr levels – sup and res from here
[12:56]   Shai : Kathir Oct F 61.85 supp
[12:56]   Shai : break will give 61.71
[12:56]   Shai : res 62 where Rajan is waiting
[12:56]   Anay : Thanks
[12:57]   Shai : NF trip back to 8055 is a buy if OF is positive
[12:57]   Shai : tgt remains 8106
[12:58]   Anay : delta coming down
[12:58]   Shai : sl willbe 8038 at 8055 buy
[12:58]   Kathir : @shai thanks
[12:59]   Shai : welcome
[12:59]   r m : @Kathir, best trades in USDINR come in association with Rajan 🙂
[12:59]   Kathir : shai usd inr crosing 62 now upper trgt immediate?
[13:00]   Kathir : if crosses
[13:01]   Shai : 62.22 imm
[13:02]   Shai : Delta at +27 for a 100 point move today
[13:03]   Shai : at +800 for a broad 35 points yesterday
[13:03]   Shai : tells us that money is made more in positionals than anything else
[13:03]   r m : that was savings deposit, today’s is current 🙂
[13:03]   Shai : those players are up 50 now and maybe booking part
[13:04]   Shai : but 8012- 8018 will be impostant for the next few sessions this series
[13:10]   Shai : delta dropped from 214 to 0
[13:10]   Shai : red candles in NF chart from 12.30
[13:23]   Shai : Buy BNF 15630- 15640 sl of 15580 tgt 15750
[13:38]   Shai : BNF pushing it now
[13:40]   Anay : @Shai view RIL and RCAP plz for medium term/ LT
[13:40]   Kathir : Tcs 10 down 🙂
[13:49]   Porus : bnf delta falling
[13:50]   r m : yep
[13:50]   r m : nf negative
[13:54]   Porus : bnf sl hit
[14:03]   Shai : phew
[14:03]   Shai : where did tat come from?
[14:04]   Shai : out for 20 mins and mkt down 100
[14:04]   r m : NF delta went negative first
[14:04]   Shai : 7959 supp
[14:04]   Kathir : may be jayalalithaa’s guys sold because she did not get jaamin today 🙂
[14:04]   r m : 🙂
[14:04]   r m : bail is jaamin in tamil?
[14:05]   Shai : buyers responding
[14:05]   Kathir : yeah i used tamil word
[14:05]   r m : It is “Jamaanat” in north, very similar 🙂
[14:05]   Kathir : initial 7959 supp taken
[14:05]   Shai : why do all RBI days behave iike this?
[14:05]   Kathir : @rm oh ok
[14:06]   Kathir : TCS ahieved shai’s target 🙂 thanks shai
[14:20]   Shai : RIL may be hinting at a bounce from here in MT cmp 932
[14:20]   Shai : sl of 888 can move to 980 and 1015
[14:21]   Anay : ok
[14:23]   Shai : rel cap is at previous lows and looks a candiate for short on bounce
[14:23]   Shai : 484- 498 is where shorts can come back in if it reached there
[14:23]   Shai : currently shorting is risky in relcap
[14:24]   Anay : ok thanks 🙂
[14:24]   Shai : alternate view is 446 holding tgt 484
[14:25]   r m : (*** Private to Kathir ) @Kathir, congrat on TCS trade 🙂
[14:25]   Shai : why are we not surprised?- (14:04) r m:NF delta went negative first
[14:26]   r m : i guess we’ll have to change tracks very fast now that we have this real time fast moving delta 🙂
[14:29]   Amit J : shai can we consider the previous fall as FA
[14:29]   Shai : trade did not hold at pdh in NF and went through reverse 80 and IB band
[14:30]   Shai : No not an FA- good volumes and successful range extension to 3IB
[14:34]   r m : Shai, what about this recent trip to 7966, price came back and travelled to IBH, if close is in IB range or above, this could be FA?
[14:34]   Amit J : i was asking about this fall to 7866
[14:34]   Shai : Yes RM good point
[14:34]   Amit J : 7966
[14:34]   Shai : 7966 is an FA
[14:35]   Amit J : because it satisfied condition 2 also
[14:35]   r m : ok, thanks
[14:35]   Shai : Amit, my aplogies I thought of the falll from 8084
[14:35]   Amit J : no issues shai. thanks
[14:35]   Shai : at 3.30 if 7966 is not visisted we have an FA
[14:36]   Shai : delta is negatibe and would imply new shorts in the system today
[14:38]   r m : no FA now, it passed 🙂
[14:43]   Amit J : 7990 spot was monthly open.
[14:44]   Amit J : if closes at 7990 than doji
[14:47]   Shai : Yes I was looking at the monthly chart
[14:47]   Shai : was thinking of 8040 close as shorts had pulled back yesterday
[14:48]   Shai : now below 7990 or at
[14:48]   Kathir : usd.inr above 62
[14:48]   Shai : 8040 spot is vwap of the month
[14:50]   r m : back at IBH, difficult to keep NF down!
[14:57]   Shai : neutral day
[14:57]   Shai : Nf decideing to close at center or extreme
[14:58]   Shai : 8023 is midpoint
[14:58]   Shai : 8017 vwap
[14:58]   Shai : 7970 looks a possible close also
[14:59]   Shai : BNF also neutral
[14:59]   Shai : 15547 is midpoint
[14:59]   Shai : 15545 vwap
[15:12]   Shai : Auction will look for a probe at 7900 now either tom or early next week
[15:13]   Shai : It’s a pity it’s a small working week as move was coming out well
[15:13]   Shai : sl to be above 8039
[15:13]   Shai : tgt if 7900 from here
[15:13]   Shai : can add below 7958 also
[15:16]   Shai : Delta good enough in NF to carry puts
[15:17]   Chiranthan : 8000 pe?
[15:20]   Shai : or 7900 pe
[15:20]   Chiranthan : ok
[15:20]   Shai : exit abv 8040 and tgt 7900F
[15:20]   Shai : good r/r
[15:21]   Shai : NF wants neutral center close
[15:23]   Manik : @ shai buy reliance now?
[15:24]   Shai : RIL was a medium term outlook
[15:24]   Kathir : @manik 14:20 Shai : sl of 888 can move to 980 and 1015
[15:24]   Manik : ok
[15:24]   Shai : butt lloked good for a bounce
[15:25]   Kathir : @manik calculate risk if SL hits
[15:27]   Manik : @ kathir sure bro
[15:27]   Shai : That’s a nice position sizer for people into stock swings
[15:27]   Shai : shorts are holding into the close in NF
[15:28]   Shai : at high of the day
[15:30]   Shai : Bye all
[15:30]   Chiranthan : Bye all
[15:30]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂
[15:30]   Anay : bye all
[15:30]   Shai : Have a nice evening
[15:30]   Porus : bye
[15:33]   Amit J : bye