Market Profile Analysis dated 14th November

Market Profile Analysis dated 14th November 1

Nifty Nov F: 11863 [ 11957/ 11846 ]

HVNs – 11667 / 11814 / 11860 / 11905 / 11980 / 12003

NF gave a Open Rejection Reverse (ORR) start to the downside as it got rejected on a probe above the spike high leaving a high of 11887 just below that extension handle of 11897 indicating that the PLR is to the downside. The auction then moved lower breaking below the PDL (Previous Day Low) as it made lows of 11825 in the ‘A’ period but struggled to extend further in the ‘B’ period which made a narrow range inside bar which meant that the sellers were doing a bad job in spite of the favorable open. NF then moved higher in the ‘C’ period and got accepted in the previous day’s range which signaled the failure of the ORR and led to a big short covering move as it made a RE (Range Extension) to the upside in the ‘D’ period and went on to complete the 1.5 IB objective of 11918 while it made a high of 11924 from where it was swiftly rejected as it left a small tail at top from 11910 to 11924 and retraced the entire up move to leave a PBL (Pull Back Low) at 11837 in the ‘G’ period after which it made a slow probe higher to test that tail low of 11910 in the ‘L’ period to leave a balanced profile for the day with overlapping Value over the last 3 days which suggests that the auction is not finding aggressive sellers after moving lower from the 5-day composite hence can attempt a move back into the higher composite Value of 11933-11979-12009

(Click here to view the 3-day Gaussian profile in NF after moving lower from the 5-day composite)

Market Profile Analysis dated 14th November 2

  • The NF Open was an Open Rejection Reverse – Down (ORR) which failed
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day (Up)
  • Largest volume was traded at 11900 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 11868 with volumes of 95.6 L and range of 99 points as it made a High-Low of 11924-11825
  • NF confirmed a multi-day FA at 11465 on 16/10 and completed the 2 ATR move up of 11776. This FA has not been tagged since & hence is now positional support
  • NF confirmed a FA at 11503 on 17/10 and completed the 2 ATR move up of 11808. This FA has not been tagged since & hence is now positional support
  • NF confirmed a FA at 11162 on 09/10 and completed the 2 ATR move up of 11554.  This FA has not been tagged since & hence is now positional support
  • The Trend Day VWAP of 29/10 at 11810 will be important reference on the downside.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Nov) is 11970
  • The VWAP & POC of Oct Series is 11461 & 11365 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Sep Series is 11127 & 10960 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Aug Series is 10966 & 10984 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11855-11900-11913

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF needs to get above 11910-918 for a move to 11931-934 / 11953-960 & *11980*
b) Sustaining below 11888-880, the auction could fall to 11860 / 11846-833 & *11816*-810
c) Above 11980, NF can probe higher to *11998*-12003 / 12027-50 & 12064-80
d) Below 11810, auction becomes weak for 11795 / *11771-767* & 11749-734
e) If 12080 is taken out, the auction go up to to 12112 / 12133-148 & 12166
f) Break of 11734 can trigger a move lower to 11716-709 / *11689-667* & 11645


BankNifty Nov F: 30770 [ 30830 / 30361]

HVNs – 30075 / 30150 / 30288 / 30400 / 30690 / 30760 / 30900 / (31150)

Market Profile Analysis dated 14th November 3

BNF opened in the previous day’s spike and attempted a probe higher but was rejected at 30630 after which it broke below the PDL to give a ORR (down) start and went on to make lows of 30361 in the ‘A’ period and seemed to be on track to tag that composite VPOC of 30291 in the IB itself. The ‘B’ period however made an inside bar but stayed below the PDL keeping the PLR to the downside but the auction got back into the previous day’s range in the ‘C’ period negating the bearish open and this led to a big squeeze to the upside as BNF tagged the extension handle of 30780 while making a high of 30790 in the ‘D’ period. The auction then settled down to make a nice bell shape profile till the ‘K’ period but gave a small spike into the close as it made new highs of 30830 in the ‘L’ period before closing around the VAH of the day which signaled the failure of sellers so a test of the vPOC of 30870 & 30900+ could be on the cards in the next session.

(Click here to view the 5-day composite in BNF)

  • The BNF Open was an Open Rejection Reverse – Down (ORR) which failed
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day (Up)
  • Largest volume was traded at 30700 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 30592 with volumes of 42.9 L and range of 469 points as it made a High-Low of 30830-30361
  • BNF confirmed a fresh FA at 30052 on 06/11 and tagged the 2 ATR target of 31049 on 08/11. This FA is currently on ‘T+6’ Days.
  • BNF confirmed a FA at 27900 on 09/10 and completed the 2 ATR move up of 29779. This FA has not been tagged since & hence is now positional support
  • The Trend Day VWAP of 06/11 at 30447 will be important reference on the downside.
  • The Trend Day VWAP of 29/10 at 29945 will be important reference on the downside. This was tagged on 30/10 and broken but was swiftly rejected so proves to be support.
  • The old Trend Day VWAP of 08/07 at 30995  is no longer valid reference now as BNF closed below this on 13/11
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Nov) is 30150
  • The VWAP & POC of Oct Series is 28784 & 28415 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Sep Series is 28416 & 27160 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of August Series 27858 & 27960 respectively

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 30498-30700-30776

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF has immediate supply at 30800-830 above which it could rise to 30880-890 / 30935-965 & 31005
b) Staying below 30760, the auction gets weak for 30704 / 30655-645 & 30585-580
c) Above 31005, BNF can probe higher to 31155-160 / 31200-255 & 31310-326
d) Below 30580, lower levels of 30540 / 30500-460 & 30375-370
e) If 31326 is taken out, BNF can give a fresh move up to 31373-395 / 30417-440 & 31490
f) Below 30370, we could see lower levels of 30310-281 / 30225 & 30150-131

Additional Hypos

g) Above 31490, higher levels of 31560 / 31618-640 & 31680 could get tagged
h) Break of 30131 could trigger a move down to 30072-50 / 29995-945 & 29899-870

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