Market Profile Analysis dated 23rd September 2020

Nifty Sep F:  11147 [ 11245 / 11028 ]

NF opened higher well above the first supply point of 11202 but could not take out the higher one at 11255 as it stalled at 11245 after which it probed lower and took support just above previous day’s prominent POC of 11176 as it made a low of 11186 in the ‘B’ period. The auction then remained in this narrow range of 59 points till the ‘F’ period where it made a RE (Range Extension) lower and broke below the yPOC indicating sellers taking control as it made multiple REs over the next 4 periods not only completing the 80% Rule in previous day’s Value but also broke below PDL (Previous Day Low) giving another 3 IB down day this week as it made a low of 11028 in the ‘J’ period. NF then saw some profit booking along with possible short covering of laggards which led to a move back to VWAP into the close. The day’s profile resembles a DD (Double Distribution) with an extension handle at 11186 separating the 2 balances with the HVN of the upper part at 11222 being the dPOC of the day and would be the new positional reference for the downside to continue. The day’s Value was extending on both sides giving a nice 2-day composite profile at 11128-11164-11224 so there is a good chance that NF moves away from this balance on the expiry day with the PLR being to the downside.

Click here to view the 2-day composite in NF on MPLite

  • The NF Open was a Open Auction In Range (OAIR)
  • The Day type was a Double Distribution Day – Down (DD)
  • Largest volume was traded at 11222 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 11145 with volumes of 141.2 L and range of 217 points as it made a High-Low of 11245-11028
  • NF confirmed a FA at 11527 on 21/09 and completed the 2 ATR target of 11225 on the same day.
  • NF confirmed a FA at 11599 on 18/09 negating the earlier FA of 11578 and completed the 2 ATR target of 11304 on 21/09.
  • NF confirmed a FA at 11202 on 02/09 and tagged the 2 ATR objective of 11470 on 11/09. This swing support was broken on 23/09 and will now be a probable supply point.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Sep) is 11607
  • The VWAP & POC of Aug Series is 11311 & 11311 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 10897 & 10803 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jun Series is 10110 & 10110 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11115-11222-11241

HVNs – 11400 / 11448 / 11485 / 11555 / 11664

Main Hypos for 24.09.2020:

a) NF needs to sustain above 11156 for a rise to 11175-202 / 11222-255 / & 11283
b) The auction staying below 11139 could test 11103 / 11074-040 & 11004

Extended Hypos:
c) Above 11283, NF can probe higher to 11301-325 / 11355-395 & 11402-428
d) If 11004 is taken out, NF could fall to 10987-953 / 10923 & 10892*-849


BankNifty Sep F:  21240 [ 21384 / 20830 ]

BNF also opened higher but could not sustain above the yPOC of 21330 as it left a selling tail in the IB indicating that the upside for the day was limited. The auction however remained in previous day’s Value for most part of the day forming a balance and building volumes at 21250 and gave a late RE on the downside which triggered a big liquidation break in the ‘I’ period as BNF broke below PDL to mark new lows of the series at 20830 and in the process completed the 2 IB objective lower. Similar to NF, BNF also gave a good retracement in the last 90 minutes as it not only got back above VWAP but went on to tag the HVN of 21250 as it hit 21308 before closing right at the dPOC. Again as in NF, here also we have a nice 2-day composite with Value at 21091-21250-21344 and there is a strong possibility of the auction moving away from this mini-balance in the coming session(s).

Click here to view the 2-day composite in BNF on MPLite

  • The BNF Open was a Open Auction In Range (OAIR)
  • The Day type was a Normal Variation Day – Down (NV)
  • Largest volume was traded at 21250 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 21150 with volumes of 77.1 L and range of 554 points as it made a High-Low of 21384-20830
  • BNF confirmed a FA at 22125 on 21/09 and completed the 2 ATR target of 20904 on the 23/09.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Sep) is 23576
  • The VWAP & POC of Aug Series is 22444 & 21595 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 22163 & 22087 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jun Series is 20918 & 21000 respectively.

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 21094-21250-21279

HVNs – 22294 / 22390 / 22995 / 23688 / 23800 / 24250

Main Hypos for 24.09.2020:

a) BNF needs to sustain above 21268 for a rise to 21345-420 / 21498-523 / 21575-692 & 21742-780
b) The auction staying below 21237 could test 21165 / 21093-030 / 20970 / 20900-850 & 20795-690

Extended Hypos:

c) Above 21780, BNF can probe higher to 21838-890 / 21985* / 22050-125 / 22220-300 & 22392
d) Breaking below 20690, it could fall to 20589 / 20496-445 / 20391-319 / 20261-220 & 20139-094

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