Weekly charts (14th to 18th September 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (14th to 18th Sep 2020)

Spot Weekly – 11505 [ 11618 / 11383 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a Neutral Extreme one with overlapping to lower Value at 11310-11412-11466 with a close near the VAH so will need to stay above it in the coming week for a probe towards the VPOC of 11556, recent swing high of 11585 and above it 11693. On the downside, getting accepted below 11458 could lead to a test of the VPOCs of 11413 & 11236

It was a week of Failed Auctions (FA) as well as Neutral profiles in Nifty as it opened higher on Monday and tagged the VPOC of 11556 but left this week’s first FA at 11569 which triggered a big fall for the day as the auction broke below 11458 not only completing the 1 ATR objective of 11431 but also tagged the VPOC of 11413 while making a low of 11383. Tuesday saw a rejection of this Neutral Extreme profile as the auction stayed in a narrow range of just 94 points forming a balanced profile in previous day’s low volume zome but left the second FA of the week at lows of 11442 leaving a second successive NeuX Day. Nifty made a good move up on Wednesday as it gave a rare follow up to a NeuX profile and in the process completed the 1 ATR objective of 11587 from the FA of 11442 as it closed in a spike where it tested 31st August’s PBH (Pull Back High) of 11602 while making a high of 11618. Thursday opened with a big gap down rejecting the spike close and in an attempt to probe higher left the third FA of the week at 11587 and giving the 3rd Neutral Extreme profile of the week as it made a low of 11498 before closing at 11516. Nifty opened higher on Friday negating the NeuX zone but made an OH (Open=High) start at 11584 juts below the latest FA of 11587 which indicated that the upside was capped. The auction them remained in a narrow range forming a balance till the ‘K’ period where it left an extension handle at 11537 and went on to spike lower into the close as it made a low of 11446 stalling just above the FA of 11442 and also the 1 ATR target of 11443 from the FA of 11587 before closing the week at 11505.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

The weekly profile is a well balanced one in a relatively narrow range of 235 points and saw two-way auction on most of the days which explains the Neutral Centre Close. This week’s Value was completely higher at 11487-11541-11571 but the close below the prominent POC gives a slightly weak outlook for the coming week with 11442 being the important reference on the downside.

Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs to sustain above 11525 for a rise to 11559-611 / 11640-665 & 11712*
B) The auction staying below 11487 could test 11442 / 11399-343 & 11299

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 11712, Nifty can probe higher to 11735-780 / 11817-838* & 11882
D) Below 11299, the auction can fall further to 11236* / 11185 & 11131

NF (Weekly Profile)

11515 [ 11627 / 11395 ]

Similar to Nifty, NF also has given a Neutral Centre profile on the weekly with higher Value at 11483-11532-11568 with a close near the prominent POC of 11532 and has a very good chance of moving away from here in the coming week.

BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (14th to 18th Sep 2020)
Spot Weekly – 22031 [ 22757 / 21785 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile resembles a Double Distribution with the first 2 days forming a balance with the HVN at 22975 after which the auction moved away from this balance to the downside forming another 3-day balance with the HVN at 22395. This week’s Value was completely lower at 22370-22970-23100 and the coming week could see a balance being formed in the low volume zone between the 2 HVNs mentioned above before BankNifty decides to move away from one of them

BankNifty opened the week with a Trene Day down on Monday after leaving a selling tail in the IB from 22648 to 22758 as it broke below previous week’s low to tag 22028 before closing at 22101. The auction then remained in the low volume zone of Monday’s profile for the next 3 days which included a spike close to the upside on Wednesday as BankNifty tested the initiative tail of the week while making a high of 22659 which was negated the next day with a gap down open and more importantly confirmed that the PLR was very much to the downside. Friday saw a continuation of the balance it was forming over the past 3 days for most of the day before the sellers made another initiative move late in the afternoon as the ‘K’ period made a 500+ point drop as it left an extension handle at 22250 while making lows of 21785 before giving a pull back 22099 and closing the week at 22031.

The weekly profile resembles a 3-1-3 balance with tails at both ends with Value was mostly lower at 22140-22320-22480. The PLR for the coming week would remain to the downside of BankNifty gets accepted below this week’s Value.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to stay above 22050 for a probe to 22140-202 / 22275-350 / 22426-508 / 22576-650 / 22726-808
B) Accepting below 22002, the auction could test 21895-767 / 21673-609 / 21566*-486 / 21403*-370 & 21300-244

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 22808, BankNifty can probe higher to 22890-975* / 23064-110 / 23208-275 / 23333-410 & 23480-559
D) Below 21244, lower levels of 21184-093 / 21021-20953 / 20880-733 / 20640 & 20570-508 could come into play

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

22078 [ 22820 / 21808 ]

BNF formed a balance in the lower distribution of previous week after leaving an initiative tail from 22736 to 22820 on Monday and went on to spike lower late in the afternoon on Friday where it made lows of 21808 but gave a quick bounce back to 22147. This week’s Value was overlapping to lower at 22185-22536 and has a prominent POC at 22392.