Monthly charts (March 2021) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot –  14690 [ 15336 / 14264 ]

Monthly Profile (March 2021)

Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly profile looks like a composite ‘p’ shape with a big buying tail from 13662 to 14467 with Value completely higher at 14658-15115-15302 and the negation of this buying singles in the coming month could lead to a test of the monthly VPOCs of 13528 and 12862 in the coming months whereas on the upside, Nifty would need to find fresh demand above this month’s POC of 15115

Nifty started the month with a gap up getting inside previous month’s Value and confirmed a daily FA (Failed Auction) at 14638 resulting in a trending move to the upside as the auction not only completed the 2 ATR target of 15047 but went on to make a high of 15273 on 3rd Mar in a spike close which got rejected in form of the biggest gap down of the month of 220 points on 04th Mar after which it formed a balance over the next 5 days as it took support above the VPOC of 14847 from 2nd Mar as it formed a prominent POC at 15021. The second Friday of the month which was the 12th of Mar saw a big gap up open as Nifty made an attempt to get above previous month’s Value while making new highs of 15336 but confirmed an ORR (Open Rejection Reverse) start resulting in a Trend Day Down which changed the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) of the month to the downside. This view got more confirmation in the third week as the auction gave a bounce to 15052 but confirmed a weekly FA there on 17th Mar which was a positional sell signal for a 1 ATR target of 14523 which got hit on the next day as Nifty negated the 1st Mar FA of 14638 and in the process confirmed a monthly FA at 15336 while making lows of 14478 and continued this imbalance on 19th Mar with a gap down open as it made lows of 14350 in the ‘A’ period almost tagging the monthly 1 ATR objective of 14347 but left an initiative buying tail in the IB (Initial Balance) marking the end of this leg down. The auction then gave a bounce over the next 2 days but left poor highs at 14878 on 23rd Mar which indicated exhaustion of demand and this triggered a big liquidation move as Nifty made strong selling opens for the next 2 days and went on to make new lows for the month at 14264 on 25th Mar where it formed a ‘b’ shape profile with the dPOC also shifting lower to 14317 that day. The last Friday of the month however gave the biggest gap up of 181 points as the auction formed a narrow balance with higher Value indicating that the PLR was once again now to the upside as it continued this probe higher on Monday with another gap up plus a Drive as Nifty left a buying tail in the IB and went on to make multiple REs to the upside as it made a high of 14876 once again stalling just below the poor highs of 23rd Mar after which the last day of the month formed a narrow range balance building a prominent POC at 14738 which even turned out to be the monthly POC for March.

Nifty has formed a 3-1-3 balanced profile for the month after getting rejected on the upside from previous month’s VAH leaving a small selling tail from 15273 to 15336 on the monthly timeframe which reversed the auction to the downside as it went on to test previous month’s buying tail of 14467 to 13662 while making a low of 14264 on 25th Mar where it left a small buying tail from 14350 to 14264 indicating end of the down move and closed the month just below the POC of 14737 leaving an inside bar both in terms of Range & Vaule. This month’s Value was completely overlapping at 14616-14737-15120 and this balance could lead to an imbalance in the month of April provided one of the tails of this month get negated.

Click here to view the daily Nifty chart of March on MPLite as per above analysis

Monthly Zones:

The VWAP of the March 2021 series is at 14816 spot and the POC is at 14737
The settlement day (Apr) rollover volume point is at 14425 F.

The VWAP of the February 2021 series is at 14893 spot and the POC is at 15115
The settlement day (Mar) rollover volume point is at 15174 F.

The VWAP of the January 2021 series is at 14288 spot and the POC is at 14569
The settlement day (Feb) rollover volume point is at 13809 F.

The VWAP of the December 2020 series is at 13528 spot and the POC is at 13528
The settlement day (Jan) rollover volume point is at 14007 F.

The VWAP of the November 2020 series is at 12554 spot and the POC is at 12862
The settlement day (Dec) rollover volume point is at 12974 F.

The VWAP of the October 2020 series is at 11793 spot and the POC is at 11897
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 11665 F.


BankNifty Spot –  33303 [ 36497 / 32415 ]

Monthly Profile (February 2021)

Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly profile has a long buying tail from 34011 to 30906 with an extension handle at 33305 which would be the references on the downside for the coming month below the immediate zone of 34591 to 34238 and on the upside we have the Value for this month at 35010-35820-37350 which was completely higher with the immediate selling extension handle at 35373′

BankNifty opened the month with a pretty big gap up of 570 points right at the selling extension handle of 35373 and went on to hit highs of 35581 thorugh the dreaded C side extension which led to new lows for the day at 34984 which got rejected and was confirmed as a multi-day FA as the auction probed above the IBH of 35470 at open on 02nd Mar triggering a Trend Day on the 03rd where it went on to make a high of 36455 but the dPOC shifted higher at close to 36349 indicating that all the longs had booked out. The auction opened with a huge gap down of 792 points on 04th Mar and broke below the Trend Day low of 35570 but got rejected resulting in a short covering rally to 36316 as it stopped just below the yPOC of 36349 and made a fresh leg lower to close the day at 35802. BankNifty then made new lows for the month at 34893 negating the FA of 34984 but formed a balanced profile for the day with a prominent POC at 35285 and continued this balance on 08th Mar as it formed similar Value and an overlapping POC. The auction then probed higher forming higher Value for the next 2 days and gave yet another big gap up of 559 points on 12th Mar but confirmed an OD (Open Drive) after making an OH (Open=High) start at new highs of the month at 36497 and went on to form a Trend Day Down falling by 1309 points and in the process confirming a monthly FA at 36497 with the 1 ATR target at 33174. BankNifty then probed lower till the 25th of Mar leaving daily VPOCs of 36233 / 35111 & 34513 where it not only completed the target of 33174 but went on to make lows of 32415 and ended up forming a Neutral Day which meant that the downside leg was over with the close being just above the dPOC of 32966. More confirmation of this came on 26th with a gap up open of almost 600 points but was also almost an OH start but ended up forming higher Value for the day with a prominent POC at 33391 and gapped above the highs on the last Monday of the month where it hit 33977 in yet another dreaded C side extension which led to new lows for the day being formed at 33564 in the ‘H’ period which got rejected leading to a FA being confirmed as the day was a Neutral Centre one with a close near the dPOC of 33782. The last day of the month turned out to be a long liquidation profile as BankNifty started with an OD down and trended lower till the E period making lows of 33152 and ended up forming a ‘b’ shape profile for the day with a close sround the prominent POC of 33313.

The monthly profile has a FA at top but a good buying tail from 33151 to 32415 at the lows with Value being mostly lower at 32738-33870-35326 but has formed an inside bar on the monthly with a close right at the POC so can expect a good move in the coming month.

Click here to view the daily BankNifty chart of March on MPLite as per above analysis

Monthly Zones:

The VWAP of the March 2021 series is at 34618 spot and the POC is at 33870
The settlement day (Apr) rollover volume point is at 33250 F.

The VWAP of the February 2021 series is at 35530 spot and the POC is at 35820
The settlement day (Mar) rollover volume point is at 36719 F.

The VWAP of the January 2021 series is at 31597 spot and the POC is at 32062
The settlement day (Feb) rollover volume point is at 30445 F.

The VWAP of the December 2020 series is at 30270 spot and the POC is at 30766
The settlement day (Jan) rollover volume point is at 31389 F.

The VWAP of the November 2020 series is at 28103 spot and the POC is at 29565
The settlement day (Dec) rollover volume point is at 29629 F.

The VWAP of the October 2020 series is at 23740 spot and the POC is at 24468
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 24110 F.