Monthly charts (November 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot –  12969 [ 13146 / 11557 ]

Monthly Profile (November 2020)

Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly profile represents a ‘p’ shape with Value completely higher at 11706-11897-11970 but has closed not just below the POC of the profile but also the VAL which means that the PLR would be to the downside for the coming month with the monthly singles of 11535 to 11347 being the immediate reference zone

Nifty opened the month with a probe below previous Month’s Value as it made a low of 11557 on 2nd Nov taking support just above the buying singles of October which was from 11535 to 11347 which was a sign that demand was coming back as the auction made an attempt to get back into the monthly Value as it started the month with a well balanced Gaussian Profile and a Normal Day. Balance leads to imbalance but what transpired was an enormous runaway move by Nifty over the next 7 sessions where it made non-overlapping higher Value aided by a FA (Failed Auction) at 11756 on 4th Nov giving a 1000+ point run as it scaled above previous ATH (All Time High) with ease and in fact left a VPOC right at 12432 on 9th Nov after which it made a high of 12770 on 11th Nov and in the process left extension handles at 11730 / 11838 / 12132 & 12480. The auction then formed a 3-day balance with a prominent POC at 12686 as it took a breather from 11th to 13th Nov and gave a fresh move on the upside in the week post Diwali as it made higher highs on the first 3 days but the confirmation of a FA at highs of 12963 on 19th Nov triggered a big liquidation break lower as Nifty made a low of 12730 the next day but got rejected from the 3-day balance of 11th to 13th Nov as it formed a balanced weekly profile. The last week of the month started with this balance continuing on 23rd Nov but also marked a new daily FA being made at lows of 12825 and this activated a fresh leg on the upside over the next 2 days as the auction completed the 2 ATR objective of 13130 from this FA in form of a big gap up on 25th Nov where it tagged 13146 but having hit the destination saw the biggest liquidation move of the month as it fell by more than 350 points to revisit that FA of 12825 in ‘T+3’ Days and in doing so left another FA at 12790 on 26th Nov which meant that the fall was more due to profit booking rather than initiative selling. Nifty then retraced more than 60% of the fall as it made highs of 13035 on the last day of the month before closing at 12969 ending the month with a Gaussian profile just the way it started.

The monthly profile once again represents a ‘p’ shape with a huge range of 1588 points which saw a trending move higher in the first half with multiple extension handles but formed a large composite in the second half of the month with the composite POC at 12862 which would be the important reference for the coming month. Value as expected was completely higher at 12528-12862-13140 but has a selling tail at top from 13080 to 13146 which would be the zone to be taken out on the upside.

Click here to view the daily Nifty chart of November on MPLite as per above analysis

Monthly Zones:

The VWAP of the November 2020 series is at 12554 spot and the POC is at 12862
The settlement day (Dec) rollover volume point is at 12974 F.

The VWAP of the October 2020 series is at 11793 spot and the POC is at 11897
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 11665 F.

The VWAP of the September 2020 series is at 11320 spot and the POC is at 11560
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 10830 F.

The VWAP of the August 2020 series is at 11311 spot and the POC is at 11311
The settlement day (Sep) rollover volume point is at 11607 F.

The VWAP of the July 2020 series is at 10897 spot and the POC is at 10803
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 11095 F.

The VWAP of the June 2020 series is at 10110 spot and the POC is at 10110
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 10240 F.


BankNifty Spot –  29609 [ 30198 / 24120]

Monthly Profile (November 2020)

Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly profile has couple of buying extension handles at 22294 and 22893 and similar to Nifty has formed a ‘p’ shape with completely higher Value at 23310-24468-24690. Immediate support would be at the HVN of 23550 below which BankNifty could continue to probe lower in the coming month’

BankNifty made a strong start to the month as it not only opened higher on 2nd Nov but took support just above the RO (Roll Over) Point of 24110 to leave a Trend Day Up with a 1000+ point range which was turned out to be just a small teaser to the gigantic move of over 5000 points it went on to give over the first 7 sessions making higher highs and in the process left extension handles at 25920 / 26400 & 27600 and gave a pause to this rise on 11th Nov where it made highs of 29030 which was the first time it marked a failed RE above IBH resulting in a FA after which the auction made a retracement to 27703 on 13th Nov almost tagging the 2 ATR objective of 27696 which marked the first PBL (Pull Back Low) on the monthly profile. Similar to Nifty, the week post Diwali saw a fresh probe higher after BankNifty not only opened higher but left a FA at 28723 on 17th Nov and went on to revisit the earlier FA of 29030 in ‘T+3’ Days post which it made an Open Drive Up on 18th Nov as it completed the 1 ATR objective of 29436 from the FA and closed in a spike higher to 29785 stalling just below the swing high of 29791 it had left on 2nd March 2020. This spike got rejected on 19th Nov leading to the second big retracement of the month as the FA of 28723 got revisited again in ‘T+3’ Days and the auction left the second PBL of the month at 28581 on 20th Nov closing in a Neutral Extreme Day Up. The last week of the month started with an ORR (Open Rejection Reverse) on the downside on 23rd Nov but like the previous week, BankNifty confrimed another FA at lows of 28853 which initiated a new probe higher as it tagged the 1 ATR target of 29567 with ease the next day and went on to made a big gap up on 25th Nov and continued higher in the IB (Initial Balance) where it made highs of 30198 but the second most narrowest IB range of the month of just 226 points indicated poor trade facilitation in this new zone and triggered a massive liquidation drop of over 1050 points in the day as it left a Trend Day Down and followed it up with lower lows on 26th Nov where it tagged 28923 but once again gave a Neutral Extreme Day Up confirming the third PBL of November as it formed higher Value on the last day of the month but remained in the narrowest daily range of just 348 points forming a rare Normal Day and a Gaussian profile.

The monthly profile is an elongated one with a huge range of 6077 points with the first half being a completely one sided probe higher with three extension handles at 25920 / 26400 & 27600 and a balance being formed in the latter half of the month with the composite POC at 29565 which would be the immediate reference for the new month on the downside along with the immediate daily VPOC of 29166. Value for the month was completely higher at 27150-29565-30150 but we also have a selling tail from 29828 to 30197 which would be the zone to watch on the upside.

Click here to view the daily BankNifty chart of November on MPLite as per above analysis

Monthly Zones:

The VWAP of the November 2020 series is at 28103 spot and the POC is at 29565
The settlement day (Dec) rollover volume point is at 29629 F.

The VWAP of the October 2020 series is at 23740 spot and the POC is at 24468
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 24110 F.

The VWAP of the September 2020 series is at 22246 spot and the POC is at 22405
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 20490 F.

The VWAP of the August 2020 series is at 22444 spot and the POC is at 21595
The settlement day (Sep) rollover volume point is at 23576 F.

The VWAP of the July 2020 series is at 22163 spot and the POC is at 22087
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 21615 F.

The VWAP of the June 2020 series is at 20918 spot and the POC is at 21164
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 21430 F.