Monthly charts (October 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot –  11642 [ 112025 / 11347 ]

Monthly Profile (October 2020)

Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly Value was mostly inside previous month’s Value at 11202-11559-11580 and even the range was mostly inside except for the 2 days where it it was swiftly rejected leaving daily extension handles at 11015 & 11072. Nifty has been forming a balance over the last 2 months over a wide range of 11150 to 11550 and could continue to remain in this range unless it negates one of the rejections of 11618 on the upside or 11072 on the downside in the coming month

Nifty began the month with an initiative move away from previous month’s Value & made a trending move higher for the first 7 sessions negating the higher rejection of 11618 as it went on to hit 12022 on 12th Oct which marked the end of this imbalance to the upside. The auction then made a marginal new high for the month at 12025 on 15th Oct but confirmed a weekly FA there triggering a move down to the 1 ATR objective of 11667 on the same day as it made a low of 11661 leaving a huge daily range of 364 points. Nifty remained in this range till 27th Oct and in the process formed a large 14-day composite with Value at 11828-11897-11964. The last week of the month saw a move away from this composite in form of a DD (Double Distrubution) Trend Day Down on 28th Oct as Nifty left an important extension handle at 11814 and formed lower daily POCs for the rest of the week as it got back to previous month’s POC of 11559 before closing the month at 11642.

The monthly profile represents a ‘p’ shape with Value completely higher at 11706-11897-11970 but has closed not just below the POC of the profile but also the VAL which means that the PLR would be to the downside for the coming month with the monthly singles of 11535 to 11347 being the immediate reference zone.

Click here to view the daily Nifty chart of October on MPLite as per above analysis

Monthly Zones:

The VWAP of the October 2020 series is at 11793 spot and the POC is at 11897
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 11665 F.

The VWAP of the September 2020 series is at 11320 spot and the POC is at 11560
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 10830 F.

The VWAP of the August 2020 series is at 11311 spot and the POC is at 11311
The settlement day (Sep) rollover volume point is at 11607 F.

The VWAP of the July 2020 series is at 10897 spot and the POC is at 10803
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 11095 F.

The VWAP of the June 2020 series is at 10110 spot and the POC is at 10110
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 10240 F.

The VWAP of the May 2020 series is at 9200 spot and the POC is at 9106
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 9426 F.


BankNifty Spot –  23901 [ 24823 / 23612]

Monthly Profile (October 2020)

Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly Value was almost similar to previous month at 21030-22405-23100 and has 3 seperate distributions with the 3 respective HVNs at 21363, 22405 & 23698 which would be the important references in the coming month as BankNifty could fill up the low volume zone(s) in the monthly profile

BankNifty opened the month with a gap up plus an Open Drive as it continued the One Time Frame probe higher for the first 7 sessions as it made a high of 24190 on 12th Oct stalling just below previous month’s high which marked the end of the imbalance as the auction then gave a retracement to 22971 on 15th Oct and settled down to form a large 7-day composite with 2 prominent HVNs at 23262 & 23550. BankNifty then gave the second initiative move for the month on 19th Oct leaving singles in the IB from 23941 to 23755 as it went on to trend higher for the next 2 days which included another drive up on 21st Oct where it entered the monthly selling tail of August which was from 24611 to 25232 with the help of a 350 point buying tail in the IB from 24683 to 24333. The auction went on to make multiple REs higher but could not extend the range by much as it recorded similar highs at 24819 & 24823 which signalled exhaustion and this weakening of demand attracted good selling once again in this previous positional supply zone triggering an extensive liquidation move lower of more than 700 points for the day as BankNifty not only dismissed the morning buying tail but went on to make good extensions on the downside as it made an emotional low of 24100 but found aggressive buying at these levels which pushed back the auction to 24635 into the close. The next 2 days formed narrow range days with Value also contracting as it formed a double inside bar on the 23rd where it left a ‘b’ shape long liquidation profile suggesting that the longs were booking out. The last week of the month saw big fight between buyers and sellers in the first half as it started the week with a DD (Double Distribution) Trend Day Down on Monday as it tested the buying tail of 19th Oct while making a low of 23867 but saw buyers take complete control on Tuesday as it negated the previous day’s DD and formed a Trend Day Up as it once again tested the positonal supply zone while making a high of 24809. It was time for the sellers to hit back on Wednesday which started with an OTD (Open Test Drive) Down and gave the second DD of the week with the sellers gaining complete control as they continued to push the auction lower for the last 2 days of the month where it made lows of 23613 before closing the month at 23901.

The monthly profile has couple of buying extension handles at 22294 and 22893 and similar to Nifty has formed a ‘p’ shape with completely higher Value at 23310-24468-24690. Immediate support would be at the HVN of 23550 below which BankNifty could continue to probe lower in the coming month.

Click here to view the daily BankNifty chart of October on MPLite as per above analysis

Monthly Zones:

The VWAP of the October 2020 series is at 23740 spot and the POC is at 24468
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 24110 F.

The VWAP of the September 2020 series is at 22246 spot and the POC is at 22405
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 20490 F.

The VWAP of the August 2020 series is at 22444 spot and the POC is at 21595
The settlement day (Sep) rollover volume point is at 23576 F.

The VWAP of the July 2020 series is at 22163 spot and the POC is at 22087
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 21615 F.

The VWAP of the June 2020 series is at 20918 spot and the POC is at 21164
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 21430 F.

The VWAP of the May 2020 series is at 18780 spot and the POC is at 19633
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 19035 F.