Monthly (July 2020) charts and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot –  11073 [ 11341 / 10299 ]

Monthly Profile (July 2020)

Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly range was of 1009 points with Value completely higher at 9820-10110-10320 with Nifty resembling a nice balanced 3-1-3 profile with rejections at both ends and the auction could continue to remain in this range in the coming month for a probable test of 10110 & 9930 if it does not negate the selling tail of 10485 to 10553

Nifty opened this month with a Double Distribution Trend Day higher and went on to form a Double Distribution Trending profile on the monthly too as it trended higher on the first 3 days negating June’s selling tail of 10485 to 10553 after which it made a balance over the next 10 days forming the lower distribution for the month with the 10-day composite POC at 10803 as it gave a move away from this POC on 17th July after leaving a swing low at 10563 on 14th just above the daily VPOC of 10557 which was an important signal. The auction opened with a gap up on 20th July and left a FA at 10953 on daily timeframe which helped continue the imbalance to the upside as Nifty completed the 2 ATR objective of 11236 from the FA after which it made another large composite balance of 9 days which formed the upper distribution for the month.

The monthly profile has a buying tail from 10562 to 10299 and completely higher Value at 10490-10803-11142 with the DD (Double Distribution) singles or another buying tail in the middle of the profile from 10896 to 11040 which would be the immediate zone to watch on the downside in the coming month.

Click here to view the daily Nifty chart of July on MPLite as per above analysis

Monthly Zones:

The VWAP of the July 2020 series is at 10897 spot and the POC is at 10803
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 11095 F.

The VWAP of the June 2020 series is at 10110 spot and the POC is at 10110
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 10240 F.

The VWAP of the May 2020 series is at 9200 spot and the POC is at 9106
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 9426 F.

The VWAP of the April 2020 series is at 8999 spot and the POC is at 9010
The settlement day (May) rollover volume point is at 9822 F.

The VWAP of the March 2020 series is at 9146 spot and the POC is at 8592
The settlement day (Apr) rollover volume point is at 8686 F.

The VWAP of the February 2020 series is at 11944 spot and the POC is at 12125
The settlement day (Mar) rollover volume point is at 11610 F.


BankNifty Spot –  21640 [ 23211 / 21028 ]

Monthly Profile (July 2020)

Previous month’s report ended with this ‘Similar to Nifty, the last 4 days formed a balance with Value below the extension handle of the Trend Day and a prominent POC at 21480. The monthly profile is a nicely balanced one with completely higher Value at 20160-21000-21660 and staying below 21480, the new month could see a probe lower towards 20210.

BankNifty opened the month with a Trend Day Up moving away from not just the prominent daily POC of 21480 but also previous month’s VAH of 21660 and continued to probe higher forming higher highs in 5 of the first 6 sessions of July as it scaled above previous month’s high of 22479 in the process and went on to hit 23080 on 8th July where it left a Neutral Extreme Day Down confriming the end of the imbalance to the upside. The auction made an inside bar the next day forming Value also completely inside previous day’s Value confirming a balance as it gave another Neutral Extreme profile but this time it was to the upside which also confirmed a FA at 22673 and looked like a new leg to the upside could begin. However, BankNifty negated the FA the very next day as it gave a move away from the 2-day overlapping POC of 22807 on the downside giving a trending move lower over the next 3 days as it not only completed the 2 ATR objective of 21449 from the negated FA but went on to make new lows for the month as it made similar lows near 21230 on 14th & 15th July. These poor lows on the daily timeframe were repaired the next day in the ‘A’ period after a OH start at 21453 as it made lows of 21028 giving the biggest IB range for the month and stopped just 2 points above the previous swing low of 21026 seen on 29th June and more importantly left a buying tail at lows just above previous month’s POC of 21000 which was held all day resulting in a spike close to the upside which was a sign that the lower probe was over. BankNifty then not only accepted the spike on 17th July but confirmed a new daily FA at 21551 which confirmed that the PLR was now firmly to the upside leading to another trending move higher as it completed the 2 ATR target of 22605 on 21st July when it tagged 22862 and in the process also confirmed a FA on the monthly time frame at 21028. There was a big gap up open at 23159 on 22nd Jul and the auction went on to make new highs for the month at 23211 but left a selling tail in the IB while recording a new monthly record of 547 points and remained in this range all day forming a ‘b’ shape profile at new highs which meant long liquidation. As had happened on 8th & 9th July, BankNifty formed an inside bar on 23rd July forming Value in previous day’s selling tail but was not able to negate it completely which made the sellers then take control of the auction from 24th July as it trended lower to make a low of 21611 on 28th July in a C side RE where it confirmed a FA once again on the daily time frame marking an end to the imbalance lower and formed a balance over the last few days of the month with a close at 21640.

The monthly profile is a well balanced Neutral one with two-sided moves all seen all through and has formed completely higher Value at 21570-22087-22710 but with a contracted range of 2184 points along with a close near the VAL.

Click here to view the daily BankNifty chart of July on MPLite as per above analysis

Monthly Zones:

The VWAP of the July 2020 series is at 22163 spot and the POC is at 22087
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 21615 F.

The VWAP of the June 2020 series is at 20918 spot and the POC is at 21164
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 21430 F.

The VWAP of the May 2020 series is at 18780 spot and the POC is at 19633
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 19035 F.

The VWAP of the April 2020 series is at 19605 spot and the POC is at 19710
The settlement day (May) rollover volume point is at 21380 F.

The VWAP of the March 2020 series is at 22104 spot and the POC is at 20248
The settlement day (Apr) rollover volume point is at 19380 F.

The VWAP of the February 2020 series is at 30692 spot and the POC is at 30692
The settlement day (Mar) rollover volume point is at 30520 F.