Weekly charts (05th to 09th October 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (05th to 09th Oct 2020)

Spot Weekly – 11914 [ 11938 / 11452 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly range & value both are inside previous week and the profile resembles an incomplete DD (Double Distribution) with a nice lower distribution which forms this week’s Value of 11181-11223-11277 from where it has given a move away with a buying tail from 11305 to 11366 which would be the support zone to watch on the downside below the prominent dPOC of Thursday at 11405. On the upside, if Nifty is able to take out the extension handle of 11442, it could probe higher towards the VPOCs of 11494 / 11541 & 11559

Nifty opened the week with a gap up above the extension handle of 11442 and probed higher tagging all the 3 VPOCs of 11494 / 11541 & 11559 in the first couple of hours itself as it made a high of 11578 from where it got rejected swiftly to retrace the entire move up as it went on to make new lows for the day at 11452 taking support in the singles closing the day at 11503 leaving a Neutral Day which meant that there was an equal fight between the sellers from the old supply zone above 11550 and the new buyers above 11442. The buyers then made the first strike with a 100 point gap up on Tuesday but got stalled just below September monthly high of 11618 after which it remained in a very narrow range of just 51 points for most part of the day mostly absorbing all the supply which was coming in and with the sellers unable to push the auction lower, there was a short covering spike in the last hour of the day as Nifty doubled the day’s range and went on to tag 11680 with a close around the highs and continued this imbalance at open on Wednesday as it left a buying tail in the spike zone and made new highs of 11763 forming a ‘p’ shape profile for the day which indicated that shorts were still being forced to cover. Thursday saw another gap up open as the August highs of 11794 was taken out and Nifty continued to probe higher for the first half of the day making multiple REs (Range Extension) but the upmove seemed to be exhausting which could also be because of profit booking as the auction failed to tag even the 1.5 IB objective for the day and this led to a big liquidation move late in the day as the auction not only retraced the entire day’s rise from 11820 to 11906 but went on to make new lows of 11791 before closing the day at 11835 leaving the second Neutral profile in 4 days. Nifty made an OAIR start on Friday and got rejected at previous day’s POC as it made a high of 11880 in the ‘A’ period but once again the sellers failed as they were unable to extend the range lower leaving poor lows in the IB (Initial Balance) and handed over the control back to the buyers who extended the range higher for the next 3 periods to tag new highs for the week at 11936 which also marked the end of the mini OTF (One Time Frame) move higher from the ‘B’ period. The auction then made a retracement leaving a PBL (Pull Back Low) at 11860 as it formed another ‘p’ shape profile and saw some more late short covering into the close resulting in a marginal new high of 11938 for the week.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

The weekly profile is a Trend Up one with a big range of 486 points and completely higher Value at 11598-11877-11931 but as it goes with trending profiles, we do not look at Value but the important zones which would be the HVNs of this week that are at 11877 / 11730 / 11593 & 11528 and would serve as support levels for the coming week. On the upside, Nifty needs to form Value above the VPOC of 11955 to continue this upmove for a probable target of the higher VPOC at 12121 and the swing high of 12152.

Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs to sustain above 11913 for a rise to 11955*-990 / 12030-042 & 12102*-121*
B) Immediate support is at 11877 below which it could test 11835 / 11787-730* & 11684

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 12121, Nifty can probe higher to 12152 / 12210-230* & 12265-295*
D) Below 11684, the auction can fall further to 11649 / 11611-593* & 11559-528*

NF (Weekly Profile)

11930 [ 11950 / 11450 ]

NF opened and stayed above the reference of 11425 forming higher lows & higher highs on all 5 days this week to leave a trending weekly profile with completely higher Value at 11592-11870-11940. The profile has multiple distributions higher so the HVNs of these distributions would be the important references for the coming week and the same are at 11870 / 11740 / 11590 & 11520.

BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (05th to 09th Oct 2020)
Spot Weekly – 23847 [ 23904 / 22247 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile resembles a nice balance formed for the first 3 days with Value at 21220-21400-21670 from where BankNifty has made a move away with a low volume area from 21989 to 21710 which would be the support zone below the extension handles of 22139 & 21989 for the next week

BankNifty continued the imbalance it had started on the last day of the previous week as it opened with a gap up on Monday and drove higher to rise by more than 500 points from previous close as it hit 22768 in the IB getting stalled right at the recent swing high of 22757 it had left on 14th Sep which was a Trend Day Down. The auction then reversed the probe to the downside for the rest of the day as it not only retraced the entire move up but went on to make new lows of 22247 stopping right at previous week’s close of 22246 which indicated that the initiative buyers were defending this zone resulting in a Neutral Day. BankNifty opened with a gap up of 300 points on Tuesday giving more confrimation that the buyers were getting aggressive as they formed higher Value for the day absorbing all the supply and went on to make new highs for the week at 22893 in a spike close. Wednesday then made a probe below the spike at open but was swiftly rejected from the yPOC of 22625 as the auction left a buying tail in the IB where it made a fresh high for the week at 22999 and remained in the IB range for most part of the day before giving a small spike into the close as it tagged 23036 leaving a ‘p’ shape profile for the day with higher Value and a prominent POC at 22923. More short covering came in on Thrusday as BankNifty opened higher at 23150 and continued to rise for most part of the day as it made highs of 23451 in the ‘J’ period which was the selling extension handle it had left in the first week of September and as expected encountered fresh supply here resulting in a big liquidation move as the auction went on to make new lows for the day at 23063 stopping right above the PDH of 23036. Friday saw an OAIR start as the auction formed the IB in previous Value and went on to give a move away from this Value as it left an extension handle at 23377 in the C period and formed a new balance higher as it tagged the weekly VPOC of 23660 and made a perfect end to the Trend Up week by hitting new highs of 23904 into the close.

The weekly profile is an elongated one with a range of 1657 points with higher Value at 22250-22640-23220 but it will be the HVNs which will be the important references on the downside for the coming week and the same are at 23670 / 23320 / 22923 / 22640 & 22430. On the upside, BankNifty needs to stay above 23845 for a probe towards the selling tail high of 24051 above which there are the PBHs of 24115 & 24290 and the extension handles of 24468 / 24625 & 24747 and the long selling tail from 24918 to 25232 of 31st Aug as probable targets.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to get above 23928 for a probe to 24051-115 / 24290-350 /24410-468 & 24555-625
B) Accepting below 23795, the auction could test 23667-540 / 23450-377 / 23320-250 / 23190 & 23100-063

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 24625, BankNifty can probe higher to 24680-747 / 24810-918 / 25035-120 / 25200-296 & 25368
D) Below 23063, lower levels of 22923*-845 / 22770-723 / 22640-560 / 22501-430 & 22350 could come into play

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

23903 [ 23965 / 22268 ]

BNF opened the week with a Drive Up after making an OL (Open=Low) start at 22319 as it probed above the weekly VPOC of 22430 and went on to test previous swing high of 22836 of 14th Sep but got rejected from 22840 which led to a break of the day’s VWAP but as happens most of the times, failure of a drive up resulted in giving new lows for the day as BNF broke the OL of 22319 and went on to hit 22268 confiming a FA at top and almost tagging the 1 ATR target of 22264. However, there was rejection at these new lows too as the gave a pull back to 22550 before closing at the dPOC 22440 giving a Neutral Centre Day with an FA at top and a small tail at the lows. Tuesday opened with a big gap up of almost 300 points which indicated that the buyers were taking contol of the auction after which BNF trended higher all week forming higher Value on all days and in the process tagged the weekly VPOC of 23700 as it made highs of 23965 on Friday before closing the week at 23903. The weekly Value was completely higher at 22358-22680-23282.