Weekly charts (15th to 19th June 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (15th to 19th June 2020)
Spot Weekly – 10244 [ 10272 / 9726 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘On the daily front, we have a nice 7-day composite from 3rd to 11th June with Value at 10002-10109-10181 so entry into this Value in the coming week could trigger the 80% Rule on the upside. On the downside, we have the spike reference of 9928 to 9996 as immediate support below which the auction could test the extension handle of 9831, the POC of 9767 & below it finally the tail from 9658 to 9544

Nifty opened the week inside the spike of Friday where it got rejected as it probed lower negating the extension handle of 9831 & testing the POC of 9767 as it made similar lows of 9729 & 9726 indicating exhausation in the probe down as it left a ‘b’ shape profile for the day with a close at the prominent POC of 9816. The auction opened with a big gap up of 200 points on Tuesday but got rejected from the 7-day composite Value as it left a selling tail from 10045 to 10018 and made a trending move lower as it not only closed the gap tagging the prominent POC of 9816 but went on to test the poor lows of previous day as it hit 9728 but this time it faced swift rejection visible in the form of a buying tail from 9728 to 9805 which was a confirmation that the downside probe was over. For the second day running, Nifty closed at the POC of the day at 9914 and continued to form a balance around this level for the next day and a half forming an overlapping POC at 9904 till late afternoon on Thursday but the important nuance to note on Wednesday & Thursday was the small buying tail it had left in the Initial balance which was in clear contrast to the selling tail of the first 2 days which meant that the buyers were coming in & trying to take control of the auction. This view got more confirmation as Nifty left an extension handle right at Tuesday’s selling tail closing in a spike of 10017 to 10111 as it tagged the POC of the 7-day composite at 10109. Friday saw Nifty accepting this spike as it continued the 80% Rule in that 7-day composite tagging the VAH of 10188 and continued to probe higher tagging 10272 stalling just below the last week’s rejection of 10290 and closing the week at 10244.

Value for the week was mostly lower at 9759-9915-10008 but the range was inside prevous week which has been part of a larger monthly balance which is in play with the 3-week composite giving a nice Gaussian profile with Value at 9874-10105-10207 which could further extend on the upside if Nifty is able to sustain above 10207 & get above 10290 for a probe towards that weekly VPOC of 10446 in the coming week.

(Check the MPLite chart of the 3 weeky composite in NF)

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the 7-day composite on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs to sustain above 10252 for a rise to 10290-303 / 10354-386 / 10446**-480 / 10503*-548 & 10612-661
B) The auction has immediate support at 10213-10196 below which it could test 10159-110 / 10050-005 / 9942-9904* & 9816

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 10661, Nifty can probe higher to 10713-765 / 10813-869 / 10903*-973 & 11025-082
D) Below 9816, the auction can fall further to 9767-9707 / 9658-04 / 9544-06 & 9468* & 9402-9394

NF (Weekly Profile)

10235 [ 10252 / 9682 ]

NF opened lower on Monday below the weekly VAL and continued to probe lower as it made lows of 9682 taking support just above previous week’s buying tail of 9651 to 9582 after which it formed a balance till late afternoon on Thursday when it gave an move away from this balance as it went on to tag the HVN of 10142 & stalled just below the VPOC of 10256 as it made high of 10252 before closing the week at 10235. This week’s Value was mostly lower at 9732-9888-10014 but the late move away from the Value seems to be a start of an imbalance which could continue in the coming week.

BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (15th to 19th June 2020)
Spot Weekly – 21338 [ 21467 / 19507 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile has overlapping to higher Value at 20480-20870-21500 and an important HVN at 20930 which will be the first reference on the upside if we get above 20730 in the coming week and the ability to sustain above 20931 could start a fresh probe higher towards the VPOCs of 21438 & 21604. On the downside, 20480 would be the first reference below which BankNifty could test 20100 & 19650 levels

BankNifty opened lower on Monday & got rejected just below the weekly VAL of 20480 as it left a selling tail from 20295 to 20470 in the IB and trended lower for the first half of the day as it completed the 2 IB objective in the ‘F’ period itself as it made a low of 19740 taking support in Friday’s buying tail of 19765 to 19526 which also signalled the end of the OTF (One Time Frame) move lower after which it formed a ‘b’ shape profile for the day & closed around the prominent POC of 19896. The auction then opened with a big gap up of more than 500 points on Tuesday and probed higher in the ‘A’ period making a high of 20639 but narrowly missed closing the weekly gap down and this once again started a trending move to the downside as BankNifty got back to that POC of 19896 and not only made new lows for the week but also for the month as it spiked lower in the ‘I’ period where it made a low of 19507 but was swfitly rejected leaving a big zone of singles from 19507 to 19792 which changed the character of the auction as it recovered another 500 points to close the day at 20297. Wednesday was an inside bar both in terms of range and Value but for the first time in the week, there was an initiative buying tail in the IB which meant that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) was turning up though the it made a lower close of 20201. BankNifty had a similar open of 20137 on Thursday and tested that buying tail of previous day as it took support at 20030 as it formed a nice balance for most part of the day forming a double inside bar on daily but gave an initiative move away from a 5-day balance (check the MP Lite chart here) in the ‘J’ period as it left a weekly extension handle at 20640 and went on to make a high of 21028 before closing the day at 20956. This close also confrimed a weekly FA (Failed Auction) at 19507 which was a bullish signal and Friday confirmed that buyers were gaining control as BankNifty formed higher Value for the day & went on to tag that VPOC of 21438 which stopped the probe higher for the day & the auction ended up forming a balanced profile with the close right at the DPOC of 21338.

The weekly profile resembles a Double Distribution Trend Up one with a buying tail at lows from 19792 to 19507 above which we have the main balance of the week which also forms this week’s Value at 19780-20210-20570 and another zone of singles from 20640 to 20725 which led to the move higher enabling a close near highs. Similar to Nifty, BankNifty has also been forming a balance on the monthly timeframe with the current value at 20200-20932-21456 (check the monthly MPLite chart here) which means the auction will need to sustain above 21456 to continue forming Value higher and a probable probe towards the VPOCs of 21603 & 21853 above which we have the positional reference of 21967 (FA from 30th April which has not been tagged) and the 1 ATR target of 22303 from this week’s FA. Immediate support is at 21244 staying above which also confirms a rare monthly FA in BankNifty and the 1 ATR objective of the same comes at 22615. However, accepting below 21244 could lead to a probe towards the current month’s developing POC of 20932 and failure to hold that can bring a test of the extension handle of 20640 and below it a probable 80% Rule in the 5-day composite Value of 20542-20211-19945.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to sustain above 21390 for a probe to 21500-604* / 21682-786 / 21853*-967 / 22052-120 / 22200-275 & 22350-425
B) The auction has immediate support at 21244 below which it could test 21100-021 / 20952-880 / 20774-640 / 20570-540 / 20445-320 & 20211*

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 22425, BankNifty can probe higher to 22501-575 / 22634-796 / 22875-953 / 23040-138* / 23180-333 / 23449-565
D) Below 20211, lower levels of 20100-031 / 19890*-780 / 19648-507 / 19450-375 / 19320-279 & 19157*-060** could come into play

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

21309 [ 21464 / 19435 ]

BNF has formed a Double Distribution profile on the weekly with a buying tail from 19653 to 19435 and a nice balance which is also the weekly Value at 19708-20150-20540 above which it gave an extension handle at 20635 on Thursday confirming a weekly FA at 19435 to form the upper balance of the week as it made highs of 21464 tagging the VPOC of 21420 and closed the week around the Friday’s POC of 21300 which would be the first reference in the coming week and staying above which, it could probe towards the 1 ATR objective of 22315.