Weekly charts (17th to 21st August 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (17th to 21st Aug 2020)
Spot Weekly – 11371 [ 11460 / 11144 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘Value for the week was completely higher at 11283-11313-11355 but has closed in an imbalance lower in form of a spike from 11238 to 11111 which would be the reference for the coming week with 11185 being the immediate reference on the upside. Nifty has a small buying tail from 11152 which will be the level to watch on the downside

Nifty opened the week with a gap up just above previous week’s spike high of 11238 but made an OH (Open=High) start getting rejected back into the spike zone as it went on to test the buying tail of 11152 to 11111 while making a low of 11144 in the IB (Initial Balance) where it once again left a small tail indicating buyers still present in this zone. The auction then made a nice Gaussian profile for the day forming a balance in the spike zone as it remained in the IB range for most part of the day before making a small probe higher into the close which negated previous week’s selling spike and the buyers took further advantage of this with a Open Drive on Tuesday as Nifty got back into previous week’s Value with the help of a buying tail in the IB and went on to scale above previous week’s high as it made new highs of 11401 before closing the day at 11385. This imbalance continued the next day with a gap up open where the auction tagged 11460 and stalled right at the 3 IB weekly objective and for the first time in the week made a RE lower which confirmed that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) had now changed to the downside as it made a low of 11394 and left a prominent POC at 11435. Nifty then made a gap down open on Thursday and formed a Neutral profile as it took support in the buying tail of Tuesday’s profile and even confirmed a multi-day FA at 11290 on Friday as it opened with a gap up of almost 100 points and tagged the 1 ATR objective of 11416 right at open but could not sustain above it indicating exhaustion as it made a narrow range IB of just 35 points qand went on to make couple of REs (Range Extension) lower but stayed above PDH leaving the second most narrowest daily range of the year 2020 of just 56 points while giving the highest weekly close of 11371 since March 2020.

The weekly profile represents Triple Distribution with three daily VPOCs at 11206 / 11334 & 11435 and overlapping to higher Value at 11292-11316-11442. The immediate reference on the upside would be Friday’s prominent POC of 11397 and the important support for the coming week would be the overlapping weekly POC of 11310.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs to sustain above 11397 for a rise to 11435*-449 / 11499 & 11542
B) The auction staying below 11362 could test 11334*-310 / 11290-240 & 11206*

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 11542, Nifty can probe higher to 11582*-611 / 11664-711* & 11783
D) Below 11206, the auction can fall further to 11184-164 / 11127-092 & 10993-969*

NF (Weekly Profile)

11377 [ 11466 / 11155 ]

NF took support in the previous week’s buying tail as it made a low of 11155 on Monday and found acceptance in the spike zone leaving a Normal Day and made a trending move higher on Tuesday as it scaled above previous week’s high with a DD (Double Distribution) Trend Day up to make new highs for the series at 11417 and went on to tag 11466 after a gap up open on Wednesday where the upmove gave a sign of stalling leaving a tail at top even as the day remained in a narrow range of just 62 points ending as a Neutral profile with a FA being confrimed at the new highs. The auction opened with a big gap down of 120 points on Thursday completing the 1 ATR objective of 11317 and went on to make a low of 11260 where it left a small buying tail right at the lows of the DD of Tuesday which indicated demand coming back which trigerred a move to 11360 where it confirmed another FA but closed at the dPOC of 11305 leaving a Neutral Centre Day with tails at both ends giving a perfect 3-1-3 profile. Friday saw a big gap up open and formed a replica of Wednesday’s profile as it made a RE higher only to leave a tail at top just below the VPOC of 11435 and went on to confirm a new FA at 11430 but left poor lows right above PDH of 11360 to leave a hat-trick of Neutral profiles to close the week at 11377. The weekly profile is an elongated one with overlapping value at 11194-11310-11392 with couple of daily VPOCs lower at 11305 & 11230. On the upside, the immediate reference would be the HVN of 11395 above which there is the VPOC of 11435 and the FA at 11466.

BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (17th to 21st Aug 2020)
Spot Weekly – 22299 [ 22418 / 21403 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly Value was completely higher at 21960-22310 with a prominent POC at 22190 but like Nifty, the auction has closed far away from the Value giving a Neutral Extreme profile with the reference for the next week from 21795 to 21459

BankNifty opened higher with a OH (Open=High) start at 21907 and made a drive down not only closing the gap but hitting a low of 21486 in the IB almost tagging previous week’s low and in the process left a long selling tail from 21654 to 21909. The auction then made a C side test of this selling tail but got rejected as it left a PBH at 21673 which meant that the sellers were still active who made a late RE lower in the ‘J’ period following it up with a lower low of 21403 in the ‘K’ period but could not sustain below the IBL which triggered a short covering squeeze into the close as it tagged 21760 before closing the day at 21700 with a ‘b’ shape profile. BankNifty opened above the ‘b’ profile POC of 21566 on Tuesday & made an initiative move away from previous day’s Value in the IB itself and went on to trend higher as it got back into the weekly Value and tagged the weekly POC of 22190 while making a high of 22227. This imbalance on the upside continued on Wednesday in form of a gap up after which the auction continued to probe higher but could not get above previous week’s high of 22440 as it made failed RE attempts in both the directions inspite of forming one of the lowest IB range of just 124 points and ended up as a Neutral Day with a FA at day’s high of 22419 and a prominent POC at 22349. This FA hit the 1 ATR target of 21947 right at open on Thursday helped by the gap down of almost 300 points after which it almost confirmed another FA at 22080 but closed the day as a Neutral Centre profile with a prominent POC at 22017. Friday saw a gap up of almost 200 points which confirmed a multi-day FA at 21886 as BankNifty probed higher in the IB to complete the 1 ATR objective of 22310 while making a high of 22340 as it stopped just short of the VPOC of 22349 and ended up staying in the narrow IB range of 176 points forming a ‘p’ shape profile for the day with yet another prominent POC at 22296.

The weekly profile has multiple distributions on the upside with overlapping Value at both ends and has made a rare feat of not tagging the POC of the first 4 days. This week’s Value is at 21770-22290-22410 and staying below the prominent POC of 22296, BankNifty could probe lower towards the daily VPOCs of 22017 / 21828 & 21566. On the upside, the VPOC of 22349 and 22440 would need to be taken out for a fresh leg higher.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to scale above 22300 for a probe to 22349*-440 / 22500-570 / 22626-670** / 22734-784 & 22842-892
B) Staying below 22290, the auction could test 22220-165 / 22079-017* / 21960-886 / 21828*-767 & 21673

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 22892, BankNifty can probe higher to 22947 / 23027*-122 / 23181-260 / 23333-403 & 23450-565
D) Below 21673, lower levels of 21609-566* / 21486 / 21403-370 / 21244-184 & 21093-021 could come into play

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

22282 [ 22466 / 21394 ]

BNF opened above the Neutral Extreme reference of previous week but gave a drive down on Monday as it made a low of 21499 in the IB where it formed a large range of 426 points after which it started to form a ‘b’ shape profile for most part of the day before making couple of late REs lower where it broke below previous week’s low to tag 21394 but was swiftly rejected indicating that the selling was drying up which got the buyers interested and they swung back in action on Tuesday first with a buying tail in the IB after which they started to gain acceptence in previous day’s singles and later in the day initiated a fresh move higher leaving an extension handle at 21843 while taking the auction into previous week’s Value & tagging the prominent weekly POC of 22185 completing a Double Distribution Trend Day higher. This imbalance continued on Wednesday as BNF opened higher and went on to probe above previous week’s high in a spike to 22466 where a FA was confirmed signalling the end of the upmove and rightly so it opened with a big gap down on Thursday completing the 1 ATR objective of 21968 at open itself and left another FA at 22090 as it made a failed RE on the upside which led to the test of the trend day’s extension handle of 21843 as it made a low of 21765 but left a buying tail from the lows till 21865 indicating the end of this leg down. Friday saw a higher open as the FA of 22090 got negated and the auction went on to tag the daily VPOC of 22360 as it made a high of 22378 forming a ‘p’ shape Normal profile for the day and closing around this week’s proinent POC of 22290. BNF has formed an outside bar on the weekly both in terms of range & value which is at 21768-22290-22416.