Weekly charts (21st to 25th September 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (21st to 25th Sep 2020)

Spot Weekly – 11050 [ 11535 / 10790 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a well balanced one in a relatively narrow range of 235 points and saw two-way auction on most of the days which explains the Neutral Centre Close. This week’s Value was completely higher at 11487-11541-11571 but the close below the prominent POC gives a slightly weak outlook for the coming week with 11442 being the important reference on the downside

Balance leads to imbalance‘ and this is exactly what happened on Monday when Nifty made a sedate start continuing in previous week’s balance in the IB (Initial Balance) but a C side extension which saw it getting rejected from the prominent weekly POC of 11541 set up the auction for a trending move to the downside as it broke below the FA of 11442 leaving an important extension handle there confirming a FA at top and made a 317 point drop completing the 2 ATR objective in couple of hours while making a low of 11218. This imbalance continued on Tuesday as Nifty made a drive lower after giving a OH start at 11302 and went on to break below the swing support & first FA of the month at 11185 and fell by a further 100 points to make new lows for the month at 11084 in the IB itself. The large IB range of 218 points along with the previous day’s fall of 300+ points meant it was time for a balance as the day turned out to be a Normal Day with a nice Gaussian profile and a close at the prominent POC of 11155. Wednesday saw a big gap up open of 100+ points but once again made an OH start at 11259 as the auction got rejected from previous day’s selling tail and left an extension handle at 11185 to start a fresh leg lower forming a Double Distribution Trend Day down as it completed the second 3 IB day for the week hitting a low of 11024 before closing at the HVN of the lower distribution at 11132. The weekly trend being so powerful, Nifty opened with a big gap down on Thursday and could not get back into Wednesday’s range continuing the imbalance lower as it gave yet another 3 IB down day closing in a spike lower from 10840 to 10790 and in the process tagging July’s monthly VPOC of 10803. The auction rejected this spike close on Friday as it opened higher and stayed above the spike in the IB and made a C side lower which got rejected as it made a low of 10855 which was the polar opposite of what had happened on Monday. This C side also was confirmed as a FA but on the downside and triggered a short covering move higher all day as Nifty completed the 1 ATR objective of 11011 and went on to make a high of 11072 in the ‘L’ period before closing the week at 11050.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

The weekly profile resembles a Triple Distribution Down over a big range of 745 points with Value completely lower at 10929-11163-11319. Nifty could attempt to fill up the low volume zone of 10930 to 11160 in the coming week with 10990 being the immediate reference on the downside.

Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs to sustain above 11075 for a rise to 11125-155* / 11184-220* & 11290
B) The auction staying below 11025 could test 10990-950 / 10921 & 10855-815

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 11290, Nifty can probe higher to 11324-396 / 11442 & 11494*
D) Below 10815, the auction can fall further to 10781-713 / 10690-670* & 10628-609

NF (Weekly Profile)

11042 [ 11540 / 10819 ]

NF also started the week with a rejection from below previous week’s POC of 11544 as it confrimed a FA at 11540 and trended lower till Thursday close falling by 721 points as it made lows of 10819 after which it confrimed another FA on Friday and this time at 10857 and probed higher all day to complete the 1 ATR objective of 11011 as it hit 11077 before closing the week at 11042. The weekly Value was completely lower at 10908-11178-11286 and the auction right now looks locked between the 2 HVNs of 10914 to 11178 unless it moves away from one of them on big volumes.

BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (21st to 25th Sep 2020)
Spot Weekly – 20982 [ 22099 / 20405 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile resembles a 3-1-3 balance with tails at both ends with Value was mostly lower at 22140-22320-22480. The PLR for the coming week would remain to the downside of BankNifty gets accepted below this week’s Value

BankNifty opened lower on Monday and remained below previous week’s Value in the IB but similar to Nifty, made a C side extension which was rejected at 22099 after which it confirmed a FA at highs by making marginal REs lower in the ‘G’ & ‘H’ periods forming a nice Gaussian profile for the day but made an iniative move away from this balance in the ‘I’ period as it left the first extension handle at 21812 following it up with another one at 21718 as the auction broke below previous week’s low and continued to trend lower as it made lows of 21274 and in the process completed the 1 ATR objective of 21506 leaving a Neutral Extreme (NeuX) Day Down. Tuesday saw a rare follow up to a NeuX profile as BankNifty made a lower low of 20958 forming a nice balanced profile for the day with a prominent POC at 21284. The auction then moved away from this POC in the IB on Wednesday in form of a selling tail from 21255 to 21365 after which it made multiple REs lower as it not only tagged the monthly VPOC of 21000 but also completed the 2 ATR objective of 20914 from the FA of 22099 and went on to hit 20821 in the ‘J’ period from where it gave a bounce to 21248 into the close forming overlapping to lower Value for the day. BankNifty opened with a big gap down on Thursday as it got accepted in previous day’s buying tail in the IB after which it went on to resume the weekly trend lower as it made multiple REs lower completing the 3 IB objective down and closing in a spike of 20600 to 20405. Friday open rejected the previous day’s spike with a big gap up of almost 300 points but was also an OH (Open=High) start at 20740 after which it probed lower getting back into the spike zone and even made a C side extension lower where it tagged 20430 but got swiftly sent back into the IB after which it made aq trending move higher for the rest of the day confirming a FA at lows as it negated the OH of 20740 and went on to tag the 1 ATR target of 20944 and formed a Neutral Extreme Day Up where it made a high of 21064 before closing the week at 20982.

The weekly profile is an elongated trending one down in a large range of 1694 points with completely lower Value at 20640-21240-21430 and the auction could return to a balance in the coming week filling up the low volume zone(s) as long as it stays above 20794.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to stay above 21027 for a probe to 21100-170 / 21240*-340 / 21412-476 / 21540-595 & 21680-718
B) Accepting below 20950, the auction could test 20880-794 / 20706-640 / 20590-508 / 20430-376 & 20301-211*

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 21718, BankNifty can probe higher to 20812-860 / 21948* / 22010-099 / 22183-250 & 22320**-405*
D) Below 20211, lower levels of 20121-022 / 19945-890* / 19810-740 / 19665-600 & 19530 could come into play

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

20979 [ 22157 / 20431 ]

BNF also started the week by confriming a FA at 22157 in a C side extension on Monday after which it trended lower for most of the week falling by 1726 points as it made new lows of 20431 on Friday once again via a C side extension which marked the end of the down move resulting in a FA being confrimed as the auction then gave a bounce to 21089 and in the process completed the 1 ATR objective of 20960 before closing the week at 20979. The weekly Value was completely lower at 20636-21266-21476 with an immediate HVN at 20846 which will be the first reference on the downside for the coming week.