Weekly Charts (22nd to 26th March 2021) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (22nd to 26th Mar 2021)

Spot Weekly – 14507 [ 14878 / 14264 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is an elongated one to the downside with mostly lower Value at 14673-14787-15039 with a FA at top and a buying tail at lows from 14406 to 14350. The daily VPOCs of 14794 & 14986 woud be the references on the upside for the coming week whereas on the downside the levels on watch would be 14702 & 14579 along with the PBL of 14494′

Nifty made an OAIR (Open Auction In Range) start on Monday as it tested previous week’s VAL of 14673 and got rejected after making a low of 14645 in the ‘A’ period from where it reversed the probe to the upside for the rest of the IB (Initial Balance) as it made a high of 14764 but also left a small selling tail at top indicating end of the upmove. The auction then turned lower and even made multiple REs (Range Extension) as it made a low of 14598 in the ‘I’ period taking support just above last Friday’s POC of 14579 which meant demand was coming back and this resulted in a move higher to 14760 into the close and Tuesday open saw the continuation of this probe higher as Nifty tagged the higher daily VPOC of 14794 while making a high of 14844 in the A period but the day turned out to be a Neutral Centre one with the auction making REs on both sides but left an important clue with similar highs of 14878 & 14877 indication exhaution on the upside. The PLR (Path of Least Resistance) was confirmed to the downside on Wednesday as Nifty not only made a lower open but confirmed an ORR (Open Rejection Reverse) start getting rejected from previous Value as it left an extension handle at 14703 in the ‘B’ period and formed a long liquidation profile after making new lows for the week right at that daily VPOC of 14579 in the ‘E’ period and left couple of PBHs (Pull Back High) right at the weekly VAL which meant that the downside probe was still not over and rightly so the auction closed in a spike lower as it hit 14535. Thursday then saw the strongest open of the week in form of a huge Drive Down as Nifty not only left a big 169 point range IB where it made a low of 14406 consisting of a selling tail from 14451 to 14575 but continued the OTF (One Time Frame) probe lower till the ‘H’ period as it not only tested previous week’s buying tail of 14406 to 14350 but went on to close the invisible singles from 2nd Feb while making a low of 14264. This positional reference being tested resulted in a big bounce triggering a spike into the morning selling tail in the ‘L’ period where Nifty tagged 14494 but was swiftly rejected and fell by 220 points to make a low of 14274 before closing the day at 14325. The last day of the week saw a big gap up open at 14506 but once again the auction was rejected in previous day’s selling tail with an almost OH (Open=High) start as it probed lower in the IB making a low of 14414 but left a small but important buying tail at previous Value which meant that the downside was capped. Nifty then formed a balanced profile for the day making multiple REs to the upside as it made a high of 14573 but could not get above the selling tail to close the week at 14507 just below the day’s prominent POC of 14535.

The weekly profile is a Neutral one with overlapping to lower Value at 14499-14643-14871 with an extension handle at 14598 which would be the reference on the upside above which we have the daily VPOCs of 14635 & 14793 whereas on the downside, Nifty has immediate support at 14416 below which the reference would be the VPOC of 14317 for the coming week.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs a drive above 14535 for a probe to 14598 / 14643 / 14703 / 14765 / 14793 / 14871 & 14930
B) Accepting below 14470 could lead to a test of 14416 / 14317 / 14274 / 14214 / 14160 / 14110 & 14060

NF (Weekly Profile)

14608 [ 14990 / 14346 ]

NF made an OAIR start to the week right in the middle of previous profile and probed higher for the first 2 days as it tagged the weekly POC of 14910 but left poor highs at 14990 on Tuesday confirming exhaustion in the upmove after which it trended lower for the next 2 days even breaking below previous week’s low as left an extension handle at 14806 on Wednesday and went on to make a low of 14346 on Thursday which marked the end of the probe lower. Friday saw a higher open after which the auction formed a balanced profile between the 2 daily VPOCs of 14723 & 14495 building a prominent POC at 14630 which is also a weekly HVN and would be the immediate reference for the next open. The weekly profile was a Neutral One with overlapping to lower Value at 14574-14742-14924.

BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (22nd to 26th Mar 2021)
Spot Weekly – 33318 [ 34360 / 32415 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a trending one down with completely lower Value at 34110-34500-35370 and resembles an incomplete DD which it could complete in the coming week if stays below 34405. On the upside, the references would be the daily VPOCs of 34513 / 35111 & 36233′

BankNifty also made an OAIR (Open Auction In Range) start on Monday but left an important selling tail at previous week’s Value in the IB from 34095 to 34149 triggering a downside probe for the day as it left yet another DD (Double Distribution) Trend Day Down after confirming an extension handle at 33733 as it went on to make lows of 33389 taking support just above previous week’s low of 33361. The auction however opened with a gap up on Tuesday negating the extension handle of 33733 and remained above the yPOC of 33559 to leave a Neutral Extreme Day Up as it made a high of 34360 stalling right at that important reference of 34405 from last week. Neutral Extreme profiles are known not to give a follow up and this was seen on Wednesday as BankNifty not only opened lower but went on to leave an extension handle at 33833 and a selling tail from 33833 to 33696 to form a long liquidation ‘b’ shape profile after it made new lows for the week at 33377 in the ‘E’ period still holding on above previous week’s low but the retracement it made could only confirm a PBH at 33686 which meant that the sellers were still in control of the auction and this triggered a spike lower into the close to 33203. Thursday open not only saw the acceptance of the spike zone but also a Drive Down as BankNifty entered the Budget Day (Feb 1st) Trend Day profile and formed a big IB range of 580 points as it made a low of 32870 and seemed to be taking support in the singles zone of 32799 to 32885. However, it turned out to be just a pause as the auction resumed it’s downward march with a C side extension and continued to fall till the ‘F’ period where it made a low of 32415 stopping just above the Trend Day PBL of 32358 and the bigger zone of singles below it from 32301 to 31629. The test of this huge demand zone then led to a reversal and a steep bounce into the close even resulting in new highs for the day at 33550 in the ‘L’ period before the day closed as a Neutral Centre at 33006 and was followed by a big gap up on Friday as BankNifty opened at 33605 but could not continue higher after which it formed a narrow range balance all day leaving a Gaussian profile with an ultra prominent POC at 33391 after it made a low of 33166 forming higher Value for the day as it closed the week at 33318.

The weekly profile formed completely lower Value at 33180-33420-33960 as it remained below previous week’s extension handle of 34405 & POC of 34500 and seems to have completed the lower distribution with this week’s POC of 33420 being the immediate reference for the coming week on the upside along with the PBHs of 33527 & 33686 along with the extension handle at 33833 whereas on the downside, BankNifty could go for a test of the daily VPOC of 32966 in case it drives away from 33391 and stays below 33180.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs a drive from 33420 for a rise to 33544 / 33686 / 33833 / 34002 / 34140 / 34405 / 34513 & 34640
B) Accepting below 33306, the auction could test 33180 / 32966 / 32760 / 32663 / 32480 / 32301 / 32062 & 31950

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

33585 [ 34617 / 32568 ]

BNF has formed a perfect Neutral Centre weekly profile with the first 2 days probing higher making a high of 34617 followed by a downward probe of more than 2000 points over the next 2 days as it made a low of 32568 before closing the week with a nice Gaussian profile on the daily with a prominent POC at 33638. Value for the week was mostly lower at 33405-33600-34170 and the auction is currently stuck between the daily VPOCs of 34416 on the upside & 33250 on the downside and initiative volumes in the coming week could bring a test of one of them.