Weekly charts (24th to 28th August 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (24th to 28th Aug 2020)
Spot Weekly – 11647 [ 11686 / 11410 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile represents Triple Distribution with three daily VPOCs at 11206 / 11334 & 11435 and overlapping to higher Value at 11292-11316-11442. The immediate reference on the upside would be Friday’s prominent POC of 11397 and the important support for the coming week would be the overlapping weekly POC of 11310

Nifty opened higher above Friday’s prominent POC of 11397 and left a small buying tail in the Initial Balance indicating that the PLR was to the upside as it went on to probe above both previous week’s Value as well as high of 11460 and closed above it confirming the bias. The auction opened higher once again on Tuesday making a hat-trick of gap ups on the daily as it made new highs for the month at 11526 but could not sustain above previous day’s high as it probed lower completing the 80% Rule in Monday’s Value and stopped right at the VAL of 11422 before closing the day higher at 11472. Nifty continued with the trend of opening higher on Wednesday also but it remained in previous day’s range for most of the day forming similar lows in the 11460-465 zone and spiked higer in to the close as it moved away from the day’s prominent POC of 11485 leaving an extension handle at 11524 and tagging new highs for the month at 11561. This spike got accepted the next day with yet another gap up of 60 points as the auction tagged the VPOC of 11582 left last seen on 27th Feb 2020 while making a high of 11617 in the IB but could not extend the range on the upside and this led to a test of previous day’s spike zone as Nifty made multiple RE’s lower to hit 11540 but stopped just short of the extension handle of 11524 before closing the day below the VAL. Friday saw the 6th consecutive gap up open which saw new highs of 11634 being tagged in the IB after which the auction went on to made a big RE in the E period and followed it by another marginal new high in the F period as it hit 11686 but got stalled from the extension handle and spike zone of 26th Feb 2020 (chart shown below) and formed a nice Gaussian profile for the day closing right at the dPOC of 11645.

The weekly profile is a trending one higher with higher opens / higher highs & higher closes all day of the week but also resembles a DD (Double Distribution) with the first 3 days of the week forming a nice balance with a prominent POC at 11475 from where it moved away in the second half of the week with the help of an extension handle at 11524 to form higher Value on daily for the next 2 days. This week’s Value is mostly higher at 11421-11481-11589 and it remains to be seen if this imbalance continues in the coming week or gives way to a balance being formed.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs to sustain above 11665 for a rise to 11711* / 11773 & 11817-837*
B) The auction staying below 11645 could test 11611-589 / 11540-506 & 11475*-447

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 11837, Nifty can probe higher to 11882 / 11914-955* / 11991 & 12039
D) Below 11447, the auction can fall further to 11397* / 11353-334* / 11290 & 11240

NF (Weekly Profile)

11675 [ 11698 / 11420 ]

NF opened higher on Monday and stayed above previous week’s POC of 11404 forming a balance till Wednesday afternoon with a prominent POC at 11484 before giving an initiative move away from this balance in the form of an extension handle at 11539 to trend higher for the rest of the week as it made highs of 11698 on Friday before closing at 11675. This week’s Value is at 11430-11484-11598.

BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (24th to 28th Aug 2020)
Spot Weekly – 24524 [ 24612 / 22410 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile has multiple distributions on the upside with overlapping Value at both ends and has made a rare feat of not tagging the POC of the first 4 days. This week’s Value is at 21770-22290-22410 and staying below the prominent POC of 22296, BankNifty could probe lower towards the daily VPOCs of 22017 / 21828 & 21566. On the upside, the VPOC of 22349 and 22440 would need to be taken out for a fresh leg higher

BankNifty continued the imbalance it had started with the Neutral Extreme profile last Thursday after marking a new swing low of 21886 as it opened the week with a drive up from the previous week’s high of 22419 and went on to form a Double Distribution Trend Day Up as it made a high of 22897. The auction opened higher on Tuesday and went on to make new highs of 23180 in the IB before it made a retracement leading to a FA (Failed Auction) in the D period at 22858 which confirmed that the sellers did not have the power to match the buyers and this led to a fresh probe higher for the next 3 days as BankNifty completed the 2 ATR target of 23668 on Thursday where it formed a ‘p’ shape profile and went on to end the week the way it started as it made another Open Drive Up on Friday and formed a Trend Day Up giving a 1000 point rise for the first time in over 2 months as it made highs of 24612 before closing the week at 24524.

The weekly profile profile is an elongated trending one with multiple distributions & has left daily VPOCs / HVN at 22811 / 23066 / 23244 / 23601 & 24250 which would be the levels to watch in the coming week. This week’s Value was completely higher at 22650-23610-23850 inside the weekly range of 2202 points and staying above 24250, there is good chance that BankNifty could continue this leg of imbalance on the upside towards the objective of 25111 & 25923.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to scale above 24575 for a probe to 24650-744 / 24810-912 / 25008-111* & 25202-296
B) Staying below 24542, the auction could test 24457-395 / 24330-250 / 24169-025 / 23930-850 & 23795-705

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 25296, BankNifty can probe higher to 25368-441 / 25522-622 / 25670-760 / 25841-923* & 26000-085
D) Below 23705, lower levels of 23650-560 / 23485-370 / 23329-244 / 23190-066* & 22980 could come into play

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

24539 [ 24680 / 22349 ]

BNF had made an outside bar previous week in terms of range & value and started this week with a drive above that range and trended higher making a OTF (One Time Frame) move on the daily time frame rising by more than 1000 points as it made a high of 23671 on Thursday and closed the week with a bang doubling the weekly range with the help of a Trend Day up on Friday as it tagged 23659 before closing the week in an imbalance at 23539. This week’s Value is at 22560-23580-23685 and the close has been way higher so the immediate zone to watch on the downside in the coming week would be from 24160 to 24360.