Weekly charts (26th to 30th October 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile 26th to 30th Oct 2020)

Spot Weekly – 11642 [ 11943 / 11535 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile with Value at 11841-11895-11937 is a well balanced one with both the Range & Value prevailing inside previous week. On the smaller time frame, the auction is stuck between the 2 daily VPOCs of 11903 & 11991 whereas on the larger composite we have a balance being forged over the last couple of weeks with 2 weekly FAs of 11776 & 12025 marking the extremes and there is a strong possibility of Nifty moving away from this zone in the coming week(s)

Nifty opened this week with an OTD (Open Test Drive) down from previous week’s VAH as it not only took out the lower VPOC of 11903 but even negated the weekly FA of 11776 while giving a 3.5 IB day as it made lows of 11712 starting the week with a big 231 point range. The 3 IB Rule came into play on Tuesday as the auction remained in Monday’s range and left a buying tail in the IB (Initial Balance) after which it gave an One Time Frame move higher all day even closing the day in a spike to tag 11899 and continued this imbalance on Wednesday with a gap up open where Nifty made a high of 11929 in the IB but once again could not get above Monday’s range and left a small but important selling tail at top. A balance ensued for the next couple of hours as the auction made couple of REs lower but stayed above yPOC of 11801 but the ‘G’ period gave a move away from this balance with an extension handle at 11814 which resulted in the start of a fresh imbalance as Nifty not only made new lows for the week at 11685 but continued the leg down on Thursday with a gap down open at 11633 and a low of 11609 in the IB which marked the end of the imbalance. The auction then settled down to form a small balance for the day in a relatively narrow range of 138 points as it marked similar highs at 11744 in the ‘F’ & ‘G’ periods indicating exhaustion on upside which triggered a probe lower resulting in a marginal new low of 11606 which was rejected as Nifty ended the day with a perfect Neutral Centre profile closing right at the day’s prominent POC of 11670. Friday open saw a move away from this POC to the upside as the auction got above the poor highs of previous day while tagging 11749 in the ‘B’ period but could not extend any further which empowered the sellers as they not only negated the initiative buying tail but went on to make multiple extensions lower as they broke below PDL with ease and went on to make new lows for the day at 11535 tagging the daily VPOC of 11593 from 06th Oct and stopping just above the lower VPOC of 11528 of 05th Oct (check the daily chart from 24th Sep till date here). Nifty gave a bounce back to 11658 into the close before closing the week at 11642 forming a balanced weekly profile with completely lower Value at 11631-11733-11841 and would remain weak below 11631 in the coming week. On the upside, this week’s prominent POC of 11733 would be the first reference to watch above which we have the extension handle of 11814 that needs to be taken out.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs a drive above 11665 for a probe to 11711-777 / 11814-862 / 11897-937 & 11991
B) Accepting below 11630 could lead to a test of 11597-528 / 11495-452 / 11405-366 & 11290

NF (Weekly Profile)

11638 [ 11956 / 11514 ]

NF opened the week with an Open Drive lower from the daily VPOC of 11956 and trended lower all week moving away from the 2-week balance as it went on to give a relatively big range of 441 points for the week while forming lows of 11514 on Friday before giving a small bounce to close the week near the HVN of 11650. Value was completely lower at 11642-11836-11858.

BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (26th to 30th Oct 2020)
Spot Weekly – 23901 [ 24809 / 23612 ]

BankNifty opened the week with a DD (Double Distribution) Trend Day Down on Monday as it tested the buying tail of 19th Oct while making a low of 23867 and seemed to move away from previous week’s Value but saw buyers coming back on Tuesday with an initiative buying tail in the IB as it negated the previous day’s DD and formed a Trend Day Up making new highs for the week at 24809 falling just short of the previous week’s high of 24823. It was time for the sellers to hit back on Wednesday which started with an OTD (Open Test Drive) Down and gave the second DD of the week with the sellers gaining complete control as they left an extension handle at 24383 and went on to make a low of 24058 after which they continued to push the auction lower on Thursday making new lows for the week at 23822 but closed as a Neutral Centre Day hinting that the demand was coming back. Friday saw a strong open from the buyers as they drove higher in the IB leaving a buying tail from 24114 to 23953 but then the dreaded C side extension marked the end of road for the buyers as BankNifty confirmed a daily FA at 24277 which triggered a fresh leg down as it made fresh lows for the week at 23613 and in the process completed the 1 ATR objective of 23643 before closing the week at 23901. This week’s Value was overlapping to lower at 23850-24050-24430 and staying below 24050, the PLR for the coming week would remain to the downside.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to sustain above 23950 for a probe to 24050-171 / 24277-383 / 24468-570 & 24641
B) Accepting below 23870, the auction could test 23795-714 / 23640-550 / 23475-405 / 23333-262 & 23180

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 24641, BankNifty can probe higher to 24730-810 / 24918 / 25035-120 / 25200-296 & 25368
D) Below 23180, lower levels of 23100-001 / 22923-845 / 22770-723 / 22651-560 & 22501-430 could come into play

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

23924 [ 24792 / 23565 ]

BNF opened the week with a DD down on Monday as it seemed to move away from previous week’s prominent POC and made a low of 23895 but negated this down move on Tuesday as it reversed the probe forming a Trend Day Up as it tagged new highs for the week at 24792 stalling just below the daily VPOC of 24810 it left on 21st Oct. The inability of buyers to take out this last hurdle gave fresh impetus to the sellers who then took complete control for the rest of the week and drove the auction down to 23565 on Friday with the help on another DD on Wednesday and a daily FA at 24277 on Friday before closing the week at 23924. Value for the week was mostly lower at 23842-24122-24430.