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Monthly charts (February 2025) and Market Profile Analysis

MarketProfile Analysis of the Monthly timeframe for Nifty and BankNifty Spot

Nifty Spot: 22124 [ 23807 / 22104 ] - Trend (Down)

Previous month's report ended with this 'The monthly profile is a Double Distribution (DD) Trend Down one with the DD extension handle at 23562 forming completely lower Value at 22945-23163-23625 with the series VWAP at 23342 along with the February series RollOver (RO) point at 23428 which will be the support levels for the new month whereas on the upside, Nifty will have to first take out 23562 & form value on daily above 23625 for a test of the important sell side handle of 23911'

Nifty opened the month in January's Value and took support at the monthly HVN of 23220 after which it made an attempt to scale above value hitting new highs of 23807 on 05th Feb but formed a narrow range Gaussian Curve indicating poor trade facilitation on the upside which was taken advantage of by the sellers who first launched an initiative selling tail on 06th from 23676 to 23773 followed by a FA (Failed Auction) at 23694 on 07th confirming that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) was to the downside and it promptly went on to swipe through Jan's Value and even broke below the lows of 22786 to tag 22725 on 17th.

The auction then got back into balance mode after the big fall of over 1000 points in 8 sessions building an ultra prominent 5-day POC at 22900 from 14th to 20th Feb and marked the resumption of the downside with another initiative selling tail from 22852 to 22921 on 21st resulting in another big drop of over 800 points in the last week as it made a low of 22104 and saw some profit booking as the daily POC moved around the lows to 22132 around where it eventually closed.

The monthly profile is a Trend Down one with mostly overlapping Value at 22739-22900-23569 but gave a move away from it in the last week with 2 extension handles at 22720 & 22508 along with a spike close from 22508 to 22104 which will be the zone to watch on the upside in the coming month with the series VWAP being at 22982 whereas below 22104, the lower reference would be the long responsive buying tail of June 2024 from 21791 to 21281.

Monthly Zones

  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Mar 2025) is 22683

  • The VWAP & POC of Feb 2025 Series is 22982 & 22900 respectively

  • The VWAP & POC of Jan 2025 Series is 23342 & 23163 respectively

  • The VWAP & POC of Dec 2024 Series is 24193 & 24621 respectively

  • The VWAP & POC of Nov 2024 Series is 23978 & 24185 respectively

  • The VWAP & POC of Oct 2024 Series is 24776 & 24400 respectively

  • The VWAP & POC of Sep 2024 Series is 25539 & 25415 respectively

BankNifty Spot: 48344 [ 50641 / 48078 ] - Neutral Extreme (Down)

Previous month's report ended with this 'The monthly profile is a Trend Down one with completely lower Value at 48061-48728-49561 which has seen profit booking by the sellers hence causing the close around the VAH which will be the zone to watch in the coming month for more upside with the series VWAP of 49283 will be the lower support below which the sellers can expect to start a fresh leg lower to test January's POC of 48728 whereas on the upside, the weekly VPOC of 50193 along with the daily ones at 50349 will be the immediate objectives if BankNifty can sustain above February's RO point of 49720'

BankNifty opened the month with a big 1084 range Neutral Centre profile and an Outside Day after which it made an attempt to probe lower but was rejected leaving a Swing Low at 48906 on 03rd which triggered an upmove into the important RBI Policy Meet which was on 07th where it made new highs for the month at 50641 but left a responsive selling tail at the top.

The auction then saw initiative sellers adding on 10th & 11th Feb resulting in a trending move to the downside and new lows for the month at 48734 on 12th but that came via a dreaded C side extension confirming a FA right above Jan's POC of 48728 indicating some demand coming back causing a short covering bounce back to 49836 on 13th where it left another FA via a C side extension confirming sellers back in control who then made lower highs and lower lows for the rest of the month tagging the important VPOC of 48160 from Swing Low of 27th Jan on the last day while making a low of 48078 but closed Feb the way it began which is with a Neutral Centre Day.

The monthly profile is a Neutral Extreme Down one with overlapping to higher Value at 48742-49290-49981 and has a small tail at the lows from 48281 to 48078 which will be the support for the coming month and failing to hold the same can lead to a test of the Dec 2024 Swing low of 47844 and the 1 ATR target of 47388 from 50641 and a break of which can further give a drop to the responsive buying tail from 46446 to 46077 of Jun 2024 whereas on the upside, BankNifty will need to take out the immediate FA of 48574 and make a probe back into the balanced Value to trigger the 80% Rule with the RO point of 49000 and the series VWAP of 49316 being an important hurdle in between.

Monthly Zones

  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Mar 2025) is 49000

  • The VWAP & POC of Feb 2025 Series is 49361 & 49290 respectively

  • The VWAP & POC of Jan 2025 Series is 49283 & 48728 respectively

  • The VWAP & POC of Dec 2024 Series is 52436 & 53355 respectively

  • The VWAP & POC of Nov 2024 Series is 51417 & 52129 respectively

  • The VWAP & POC of Oct 2024 Series is 51559 & 51239 respectively

  • The VWAP & POC of Sep 2024 Series is 52236 & 51404 respectively