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Nifty Spot: 23519 [ 23869 / 21964 ] - Double Distribution Trend (Up)
Previous month's report ended with this 'The monthly profile is a Trend Down one with mostly overlapping Value at 22739-22900-23569 but gave a move away from it in the last week with 2 extension handles at 22720 & 22508 along with a spike close from 22508 to 22104 which will be the zone to watch on the upside in the coming month with the series VWAP being at 22982 whereas below 22104, the lower reference would be the long responsive buying tail of June 2024 from 21791 to 21281'
Nifty continued previous month's closing imbalance with a probe lower in the first 2 sessions as it made new lows for the year 2025 at 21964 on 04th but left an initiative buying tail and confirmed a Swing Low there with another bigger A TPO singles on 05th forming a big 327 point range signalling the return of aggressive demand. The auction went on to climb higher to 22676 on 10th but left a selling tail just below the RO point of 22683 indicating sellers trying to make a comeback which resulted in a retracement back to 22314 on 11th where once again buyers came back confirming another A TPO tail and after a brief balance for the next 3 sessions made a fresh initiation on 18th taking out 22683 and the extension handle of 22720 with yet another initiative buying tail resulting in a One Time Frame (OTF) move over the next 5 sessions not only scaling above previous month's POC & VWAP of 22900 & 22982 respectively but also made a look up above February's high of 23807 while hitting 23869 on 25th but could not sustain and left a small and important selling tail marking the end of the upside for the month.
There was a retracement back to 23412 where Nifty once again saw demand coming back and closed the month with a 5-day balance with the composite POC forming at 23602 hinting at profit booking by the buyers at the end of the series after forming an Outside Bar in terms of range in March.
The monthly profile is a Double Distribution (DD) Trend Up one with an initiative buying tail at the lows from 22004 to 21964 and an initial base at HVN at 22071 from where it trended higher forming another base at the 4-day composite POC of 22433 & HVN of 22509 before taking off from 18th Mar leaving an extension handle at 22668 along with 4 consecutive daily VPOCs at 22770, 22903, 23049 & 23343 and making a high of 23869 on 25th stalling just below the twin extension handles of 23880 & 23911 from 06th Jan as it left a responsive selling tail till 23736 indicating profit booking by the buyers hence closing the month with a 5-day composite HVN at 23602 which will be the immediate reference on the upside for the month of Apr staying below which we could see a filling up of the DD zone from 23402 to 22668 with 22491 being an important Swing support.
The settlement day Roll Over point (Apr 2025) is 23800
The VWAP & POC of Mar 2025 Series is 22991 & 22491 respectively
The VWAP & POC of Feb 2025 Series is 22982 & 22900 respectively
The VWAP & POC of Jan 2025 Series is 23342 & 23163 respectively
The VWAP & POC of Dec 2024 Series is 24193 & 24621 respectively
The VWAP & POC of Nov 2024 Series is 23978 & 24185 respectively
The VWAP & POC of Oct 2024 Series is 24776 & 24400 respectively
BankNifty Spot: 51564 [ 52064 / 47702 ] - Neutral Extreme (Up)
Previous month's report ended with this 'The monthly profile is a Neutral Extreme Down one with overlapping to higher Value at 48742-49290-49981 and has a small tail at the lows from 48281 to 48078 which will be the support for the coming month and failing to hold the same can lead to a test of the Dec 2024 Swing low of 47844 and the 1 ATR target of 47388 from 50641 and a break of which can further give a drop to the responsive buying tail from 46446 to 46077 of Jun 2024 whereas on the upside, BankNifty will need to take out the immediate FA of 48574 and make a probe back into the balanced Value to trigger the 80% Rule with the RO point of 49000 and the series VWAP of 49316 being an important hurdle in between'
BankNifty also continued previous month's imbalance to the downside negating the buying tail from 48281 to 48078 which led to a test of the Dec Swing low of 47844 as it tagged 47841 but left poor lows indicating invetory getting too short which led to a bounce back to 48839 in the first week where it confimed a new Swing High on the daily timeframe on 06th and resumed the downside with a gap down opening in the second week and a test of the monthly POC of May 2024 which was at 47726 while making a low of 47702 at open on 11th but left an initiative buying tail signalling return of demand.
The auction then made a slow probe higher in the next 3 sessions before taking off on 18th with an extension handle at 48839 confirming a Failed Auction (FA) on the monthly timeframe which inturn resulted in a trending move higher not only completing the 1 ATR target of 50911 but continued the upmove to 52064 on 25th where it stalled near the selling zone from Jan and made a retracement back to 51050 on 27th and saw some profit booking by the buyers as it closed the month forming a HVN at 51604.
The monthly profile is a Neutral Extreme one to the upside which also resembles a Double Distribution profile with a FA at lows of 47702 a small tail till 47841 and has left multiple extension handles at 48839, 49400, 49807, 50155 & 50672 which will be the support levels for the coming month as BankNifty could fill up the DD zone from 51050 to 48839 as long as it remains below the daily FA of 51875 from 26th which also coincides with the RO point of Apr which is at 51880
The settlement day Roll Over point (Apr 2025) is 51880
The VWAP & POC of Mar 2025 Series is 49563 & 48335 respectively
The VWAP & POC of Feb 2025 Series is 49361 & 49290 respectively
The VWAP & POC of Jan 2025 Series is 49283 & 48728 respectively
The VWAP & POC of Dec 2024 Series is 52436 & 53355 respectively
The VWAP & POC of Nov 2024 Series is 51417 & 52129 respectively
The VWAP & POC of Oct 2024 Series is 51559 & 51239 respectively
