April series - Trade in the Now

What Happened Last Week

IIn last week's note we flagged the 2-year balance lows near 22,000–22,100 as the market-defining zone and noted the absence of aggressive short-building in April Orderflow. The market validated that read.

Nifty rallied approximately 1,900 points off the lows, printing a high near 24,120 — a move driven by thin supply around the balance lows and the ceasefire announcement on April 7–8. The weekly profile closed with a clear upside extension, and the 2-year balance held once again.

→ Previous note: April Series — Two Sessions Old

The chart above shows the weekly TPO profiles with Anchored KRLs enabled. Note the structure of the rally from the 22,200 zone through the current close near 24,050. The yellow dotted line at 24,000 and the green dashed line at 23,232 mark the two reference levels visible on the chart. Single prints below the current profile are visible, indicating initiative buying through the range.

This Week's Setup

Old week done, new bias begins. The rally was sharp and the profile structure leans bullish, but a new week resets the reference frame. Three levels matter on the weekly profile:

Pivot Level- 23750

VWAP of last week's uptrending range. In Market Profile, the VWAP of a directional week carries weight — it represents the composite volume weighted average price at which business was transacted during the Up-move.

 Buyers defended this range through the week. If the market pulls back into this zone early in the week, the response here will signal whether last week's buyers are still committed or merely chasing momentum.

Overhead Reference- 24,050 – 24,120

The weekly high zone. Friday's close near 24,050 puts the market right at the upper end of last week's range. Acceptance above 24,120 would be new information — the kind that confirms follow-through rather than just a relief rally. Watch for whether the market builds value here or gets rejected back into the profile.

2-Year Balance Low- 22,000 – 22,100

Unchanged from last week. This is the structural floor of the 2-year balance area. It held in June 2024, March 2025, and again in early April 2026. Any sustained break below this zone shifts the longer-term structure from balance to a potential multi-month imbalance. Still the level that defines the regime.

Macro Context

Settement Monday — April weekly expiry settlement is due. Positioning into settlement often skews price action in ways that are not representative of directional intent. Read the tape for what it is, not what it appears.

Hormuz & Ceasefire — The two-week US-Iran ceasefire (brokered April 7–8) is the macro variable. India has its own stakes — 50% of crude imports and most LPG transit the Strait. The market rallied on the ceasefire. Any escalation during or after the talks will reverse that sentiment rapidly. Geopolitical headline risk remains non-trivial.

Data over opinion. The ceasefire creates breathing room but the situation remains fluid. Markets absorbed the headline and moved — what matters now is whether they hold the move or give it back. That answer lives in the Orderflow data in real time, not in commentary.

Orderflow Read
As noted in last week's note — unlike March, which opened with aggressive short-building from day one, April's Orderflow has not shown that structure around the 22,200 zone. That absence was significant and the market's response confirmed it.

With the rally now at 24,050, the question shifts: is new demand entering at these levels, or is this a short-cover driven move running out of fuel? The answer shows up in real-time Orderflow — specifically in the micro-timeframe entries and exits of hot money around the 23,750 VWAP and the 24,000–24,120 resistance zone.

Keep an Orderflow chart open alongside the Market Profile this week. The two together give you both the structural map and the live transaction data to navigate within it.

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