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Nifty Spot: 23508 [ 24226 / 22786 ] – Normal Variation (Down)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly profile is a Neutral Extreme one to the downside as Nifty confirmed a FA at top (24857) and completed the 1 ATR target of 23622 closing around the same with small tails at both ends along with overlapping to higher Value at 23867-24621-24851. The RollOver (RO) point for the January series is at 23915 which will be the first hurdle on the upside in the coming month along with the initiative selling tail from 24051 from 19th Dec. The higher references would be the yearly POC of 24143 along with December’s NeuX VWAP of 24193 being an important Swing Supply point which will have to be taken out for a visit to the daily VPOCs of 24231, 24394 & 24657 as potential objectives whereas on the downside, 23646 would be the immediate support below which it can go for a test of the responsive buying tail from 23537 to 23460 and a break of which could result in a drop lower to the weekly VPOC of 23339 along with June 2024 VWAP of 23247 which if the sellers are able to take out can take it further down to 22577‘
Nifty opened the month with an upward bias leaving an initiative buying tail on 01st followed by a big 475 points range Trend Day Up on the 02nd as it not only scaled above the RO point of 23915 but went on to get above the selling tail of 24051 and almost went on to tag the first of the daily VPOCs of 24231 while making a high of 23226 and left a responsive selling tail indicating profit booking.
The auction changed character on 03rd when it left an initiative selling tail right at December’s NeuX VWAP of 24193 signalling the return of supply who then went on to notch a bigger Trend Day Down of 538 points recording new lows for the month and after a brief balance in the lower part of the elongated profile continued the downmove negating the buying tail from 23537 to 23460 and a break of the weekly VPOC of 23339 as it opened the third week with a gap down and hit a low of 23047 on 13th after which it got back into consolidation mode for the next 9 sessions but the bounce confirmed a weekly FA at 23426 on 21st Jan warning that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) remained to the downside.
Nifty made an attempt to move away from the 10-day balance with another weekly gap down on 27th almost completing the 1 ATR target of 22756 from the weekly FA of 23426 while making a low of 22786 coinciding with the initiative buying tail from 07th Jun marking the end of the downside as it confirmed a daily FA at 22857 on 28th and got back into the 10-day Value completing the 80% Rule on 30th Jan and revisited the FA of 23426 with the help of a Trend Day Up on the last day of the month as it got back to tag the daily VPOC of 23523 along with the weekly one at 23538. The monthly profile is a Double Distribution (DD) Trend Down one with the DD extension handle at 23562 forming completely lower Value at 22945-23163-23625 with the series VWAP at 23342 along with the February series RollOver (RO) point at 23428 which will be the support levels for the new month whereas on the upside, Nifty will have to first take out 23562 & form value on daily above 23625 for a test of the important sell side handle of 23911.
Monthly ZonesBankNifty Spot: 49587 [ 51672 / 47844 ] – Trend (Down)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly profile is a Neutral Extreme one to the downside with a FA on the monthly timeframe at highs of 53888 with overlapping to higher Value at 51424-53355-53868 with the series VWAP at 52436 which will be a positional level for sellers to hold in the coming month(s) where the immediate reference on the upside will be the 2024 POC of 51214 which could continue to act as a magnet before BankNifty moves away for good time away from it in either direction with the daily VPOC of 51463 & RO (RollOver) point of 51750 being the immediate upside levels to watch out for whereas on the downside, 31st Dec tail from 50654 will be the first support below which 21st Nov’s PBH of 50476 & 2024 yearly VWAP of 50395 will be the important zone to hold failing which it could drop to tag the weekly VPOCs of 49733 & 49326‘
BankNifty also opened with an upside push on the first 2 days of January making a high of 51672 stalling just below the RO Point of 51750 and the confirmation of an initiative selling tail on 03rd meant that the sellers are holding the control for the month and they went on to make a trending move lower over the next 6 sessions breaking below the weekly VPOCs of 49733 & 49326 and closing the second week with another 852 point drop on 10th where it hit 48631.
The auction began the third week with a gap down as the imbalance continued resulting in new lows of 47898 but left a Neutral Extreme Day Up signalling that the supply was getting stretched paving way for a bounce back to 49650 on 20th but got initiative sellers back into play from 21st who pushed it back lower even succeeding in making new lows for the month at 47844 on 27th but the lower open failed to get fresh supply triggering a sharp short covering move into the close of the month back to 49674.
The monthly profile is a Trend Down one with completely lower Value at 48061-48728-49561 which has seen profit booking by the sellers hence causing the close around the VAH which will be the zone to watch in the coming month for more upside with the series VWAP of 49283 will be the lower support below which the sellers can expect to start a fresh leg lower to test January’s POC of 48728 whereas on the upside, the weekly VPOC of 50193 along with the daily one at 50349 will be the immediate objectives if BankNifty can sustain above February’s RO point of 49720.
Monthly Zones
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