Monthly charts (August 2024) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot: 25236 [ 25268 / 23893 ]

Previous month’s report ended with this ‘Nifty has formed a bullish Normal Variation profile for the month with completely higher Value at 24218-24338-24657 with the series VWAP at 24470 which is around where even the Roll Over point of August futures came in (RO point at 24460) and will be the important Swing support for the coming month‘

Nifty opened the month with a gap up hitting new ATH of 25078 but left an special case A period selling tail as it not only got back into July’s range & value but went on to swipe through it completely in just 2 sessions with the help of couple of gap downs on 02nd & 05th Aug along with a big Trend Day of 456 points as it made a low of 23893 taking support just above June’s extension handle of 23889 marking the end of the downside as the auction then formed value above the Trend Day POC of 24012 getting into phase 2 of the IPM (Initial Price Movement) forming a balance till the 14th where it made a new swing low of 24099 and left an important A period buying tail which was the first one of the month indicating initiative demand coming back.

The Independence Day celebrations came a day later in the markets with a confirmation that the buyers had indeed taken control as the attempt made by sellers post a gap up open resulted in a typical C side extension which attracted more aggressive demand leading to a big 359 point range Neutral Extreme (NeuX) Day Up after which Nifty made a slow trending move higher for the rest of the month either forming higher or overlapping value on all days even hitting new ATH of 25129 on 28th and continued with new highs of 25174 the next day but saw a liquidation break and a downside RE for the first time in 8 sessions but ended up leaving a FA at 24998 and yet another NeuX profile recording new ATH of 25193 and closed the month with a narrow range Normal Day on 30th Aug marking new highs of 25268 into the close.

The monthly profile is a Neutral One as it first dropped by a whopping 1184 points in the first 3 sessions but took support at an important Swing level of 23889 and not only retraced the entire fall but went on to leave an extension handle at 25129 closing in an imbalance and a range of 1375 points forming an outside bar both in terms of range & value which is at 23912-24323-24810 with the August series VWAP at 24588. The September NF RollOver (RO) point of 25270 will be the immediate reference on the upside as we enter a new series staying above which the imbalance can continue towards 25332 & 25490 as immediate objectives whereas on the downside, the nearest VPOC of 25098 along with the FA at 24998 will be the support levels to watch below which we have the lower VPOCs of 24831 / 24727 / 24581 / 24505 & 24157.

BankNifty Spot: 51351 [ 51877 / 49654 ]

Previous month’s report ended with this ‘Value for the month was overlapping to higher at 51567-52233-52747 but the close has been at the lower end so the PLR for the coming month could continue to be lower with 52233 being a Swing reference on the upside with the August RollOver point of 51845 being the immediate supply level on watch‘

BankNifty opened August with a selling tail right from 51608 to 51877 confirming supply at the RO point of 51845 as it continued the weakness it displayed at the close of previous month and went on to drop by more than 2000 points over 4 sessions breaking below June’s VPOC of 49947 while making a low of 49659 on 06th Aug from where it gave a bounce back to 50830 on 12th and saw supply coming back again pushing it back to 49654 on 14th where it left similar lows for the month along with a tiny but important A period buying tail hinting at exhaustion on the downside and return of demand.

The auction gave more confirmation of buyers taking over the control on 16th with a FA at 49806 and the completing of the 2 ATR objective of 51111 on 23rd after which it continued to probe higher in the last week where it tested the monthly extension handle of 51456 but left another FA at 51466 on the last day of the month leaving a Neutral profile to the downside with the adjusted close around the prominent POC of 51360.

The monthly profile is a long liquidation ‘b’ shape one with a selling tail from 51608 to 51877 and mostly lower Value at 50181-50415-51578 with the series VWAP being at 50629. For the coming month, the FA at 51466 will be the immediate supply point to watch above which it can go for a test of 01st Aug’s VPOC of 51708 & Aug’s VPOC of 52133 whereas on the downside, the prominent 4-day POC (26-29 Aug) of 51214 will the the first support below which BankNifty can go for a test of the 21st Aug VPOC of 50520.