From the column
“The trader does not see “your average loss is twice your average gain.” The trader sees “nine out of ten traders lose.” The first statement concerns the account. The second concerns everybody else.”
On a warning that describes the population
The broker-terminal disclosure is accurate. SEBI found 93% of individual F&O traders lost money from FY22 to FY24, 90.9% in FY25, and 87.7% in FY26. It is treated as a condition of entry. It does not tell the person at the order window whether today's size is too large for the account, whether turnover rose after a loss, or whether the book is concentrated in contracts with a few hours left to expiry.
On what the studies already show, and what they still miss
The FY25–FY26 work is more specific than the warning. 97% of individual traders were predominantly options buyers; 93% traded only options in FY26. In FY25, 70% of index-options turnover sat on expiry day. Traders active more than 100 days were 42% of the base and 87% of the losses. Accounts with equity below ₹1 lakh and derivatives turnover above ₹1 crore were 13% of traders and 52% of aggregate losses. Median quarterly loss ₹10,525 against a median gain of ₹4,366. None of that appears in the line the trader acknowledges before the screen loads.
On the gap inside the terminal
Most retail screens make execution easy: price, RSI and MACD, a few levels of depth. Indicators reorganise prices that have already traded. Depth shows orders that can still be withdrawn. An executed trade is the firmer record — volume at price, buying at the offer, selling at the bid, whether aggression moved price or was absorbed. Two traders can buy the same option on the same day; one from a structure still forming, the other from a candle after the move. The 90% figure cannot tell those two apart. Diagnosis has to move closer to the account, the session, and the other side of the trade.
The excerpts above are from Shai Coelho's guest column as published by NDTV Profit. The full piece is at NDTV Profit. Market commentary is educational and observational; it is not investment advice or a trading recommendation.